NFL Picks — Week 10

LV @ DEN
Thu, Nov 6 5:15 PM
Pick
DEN
Conf: High
Win Prob 70%
Spread: -8.5 O/U: 42.5
Notes
  • DEN is a clear home favorite (-8.5); pick remains DEN.
  • Model assigns DEN ≈70% win probability (0.702) with confidence level 2.
  • No major injuries listed, but both QBs are currently “unknown” — late QB updates could change the outlook.
  • Total 42.5 points suggests a modest scoring game; rest/travel neutral (0 days) and weather not reported.
ATL @ IND
Sun, Nov 9 6:30 AM
Pick
IND
Conf: Med
Win Prob 65%
Spread: -6.5 O/U: 48.5
Notes
  • Pick: IND (home) — ESPN BET spread IND -6.5, total 48.5.
  • QB status for both teams is listed as unknown; starter news could shift the outlook.
  • No major injuries reported in the provided notes; rest/travel listed as neutral.
  • Model/projected win probability ~65% for IND — supports taking IND on the spread, but confirm late QB/injury updates.
NYG @ CHI
Sun, Nov 9 10:00 AM
Pick
CHI
Conf: Low
Win Prob 58%
Spread: -3.5 O/U: 48.5
Notes
  • Chicago is a 3.5-point home favorite (ESPN BET); game total is 48.5.
  • Model pick gives CHI roughly a 58% chance to win, aligning with the home-side lean.
  • Starting-QB statuses for both teams are listed as unknown, introducing lineup uncertainty.
  • No major injuries reported and both teams have even rest (0-day edge), so home-field and the projection favor CHI.
BUF @ MIA
Sun, Nov 9 10:00 AM
Pick
BUF
Conf: High
Win Prob 73%
Spread: +9.5 O/U: 50.5
Notes
  • Pick: Buffalo — ESPN BET shows a 9.5-point spread and a 50.5 total (implying BUF is the favorite).
  • QB status is listed as unknown for both teams and no major injuries are reported in the provided data.
  • No rest or travel edge (0 days difference), so lineup availability and matchup quality drive the line.
  • Model gives BUF ~72% win probability but notes low confidence (2); consider the 50.5 total if you prefer game-script bets.
BAL @ MIN
Sun, Nov 9 10:00 AM
Pick
BAL
Conf: Med
Win Prob 61%
Spread: +4.5 O/U: 48.5
Notes
  • Pick: Baltimore Ravens (road) — they're +4.5 on the spread; the pick favors BAL to win/cover.
  • Pick model implies about a 61% win probability for Baltimore (per the pick data), so the line looks beatable for the visitor.
  • Game total 48.5 (ESPN BET) — a middling number; with both QBs and injuries listed as unknown/no major injuries, scoring upside is uncertain.
  • No rest edge (0 days) and travel/weather details are unknown, so no clear off-field advantage for either team.
CLE @ NYJ
Sun, Nov 9 10:00 AM
Pick
CLE
Conf: Low
Win Prob 56%
Spread: +2.5 O/U: 37.5
Notes
  • Pick: CLE — model win probability about 56%.
  • ESPN BET shows a 2.5-point spread and 37.5 total, signaling a close, lower-scoring game.
  • Both teams' QB statuses are listed as unknown, which raises outcome uncertainty.
  • No major injuries reported; rest edge neutral and weather/travel details not provided.
NE @ TB
Sun, Nov 9 10:00 AM
Pick
TB
Conf: Low
Win Prob 56%
Spread: -2.5 O/U: 48.5
Notes
  • Pick TB — ESPN BET shows TB as a 2.5-point home favorite (Spread -2.5).
  • Model/projected win probability about 56%, so TB is a modest favorite.
  • No listed key injuries for either team and both QBs are listed as unknown; monitor late-week updates.
  • Game total 48.5 points implies a midrange scoring expectation; rest/travel neutral and weather not reported.
NO @ CAR
Sun, Nov 9 10:00 AM
Pick
CAR
Conf: Med
Win Prob 63%
Spread: -5.5 O/U: 39.5
Notes
  • CAR favored by 5.5 (ESPN BET); pick CAR to cover the spread.
  • Model projects Carolina with about a 63% win probability.
  • No major injuries reported for either team; both QBs listed as unknown.
  • Game total 39.5 points suggests a lower-scoring affair; no rest/travel edge (0 days).
JAX @ HOU
Sun, Nov 9 10:00 AM
Pick
HOU
Conf: Low
Win Prob 53%
Spread: -1.5 O/U: 37.5
Notes
  • HOU is a narrow home favorite (−1.5 on ESPN BET), so this projects as a close game.
  • Low total (37.5) points toward a defense-first game rather than a shootout.
  • Both QBs listed as unknown — confirm starter updates before wager.
  • No major injuries reported and no rest/travel edge (0 days), rosters/routine appear even.
  • Model pick gives HOU about a 53% win probability — a modest edge, not a heavy favorite.
ARI @ SEA
Sun, Nov 9 1:05 PM
Pick
SEA
Conf: Med
Win Prob 65%
Spread: -6.5 O/U: 45.5
Notes
  • SEA is a 6.5-point favorite on ESPN BET; current pick is SEA with an implied win probability ~65%.
  • No major injuries listed for either team in the provided info.
  • Both teams' QB statuses are listed as unknown — any update could materially affect the spread.
  • Over/Under is 45.5 (moderate scoring expectation); rest edge/travel and weather details are not provided.
LAR @ SF
Sun, Nov 9 1:25 PM
Pick
LAR
Conf: Low
Win Prob 58%
Spread: +3.5 O/U: 50.5
Notes
  • Pick: Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) as the road underdog vs San Francisco.
  • Model projects Rams ≈58% win probability on this matchup.
  • Both teams’ QB statuses are listed as unknown in the available info — monitor injury reports through game week.
  • No major injuries, no rest/travel edge noted; total is 50.5 (ESPN BET), implying a moderate scoring expectation.
DET @ WSH
Sun, Nov 9 1:25 PM
Pick
DET
Conf: High
Win Prob 73%
Spread: +9.5 O/U: 48.5
Notes
  • DET is listed as a 9.5-point underdog (ESPN BET); game total is 48.5.
  • Model pick: Detroit — roughly a 73% win probability per the projection.
  • No major injuries reported in the matchup data; both teams' QB statuses are currently unknown — monitor starter confirmations.
  • No rest or travel advantage and weather not flagged, so neutral off-field factors.
PIT @ LAC
Sun, Nov 9 5:20 PM
Pick
LAC
Conf: Low
Win Prob 56%
Spread: -2.5 O/U: 44.5
Notes
  • Pick: LAC (home) — listed as a 2.5-point favorite on ESPN BET, so the pick expects them to cover a small spread.
  • Model/line support: implied win probability ~56% (0.557), a modest edge but not a blowout.
  • QB status listed as unknown for both teams — starting-quarterback news could materially change the outlook, monitor before kickoff.
  • No major injuries reported in the provided data and no rest advantage (0 days), weather not noted — matchup looks decided mainly by team play and the small home spread.
PHI @ GB
Mon, Nov 10 5:15 PM
Pick
GB
Conf: Low
Win Prob 56%
Spread: -2.5 O/U: 45.5
Notes
  • Pick: GB — listed as a 2.5-point favorite on ESPN BET, so this projects as a one-score home edge.
  • Game total 45.5, indicating a moderate scoring expectation.
  • Both QBs shown as unknown in the provided context and no major injuries reported, so status updates could change the matchup.
  • Model win probability for GB ~56%; no rest advantage noted and weather information not provided.

Today's Summaries

NFL Summary

NFL Day-in-Review — Aug 25, 2025

Quick snapshot

  • Roster cutdown day: Teams are trimming to a 53-man roster by the league deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday). That drove a flurry of cuts, trades and last-minute moves across the league.
  • Big contract/retention moves: Bengals and Commanders locked in key veterans — Trey Hendrickson (one-year, ~$30M) and Terry McLaurin (3 years, up to $96M) — decisions that matter for those teams' defenses and offenses, respectively.
  • Patriots continued cutting into their 2024 draft class (Layden Robinson waived/injured), highlighting roster thinness as their depth will be tested early in the season.
  • Preseason takeaways: Several rookies impressed (TreVeyon Henderson, Jaxson Dart, Frank Gore Jr.) while others struggled (Shedeur Sanders), shaping who gets final roster spots and practice-squad attention.

Rosters, waivers and what those rules mean

  • Cutdown basics: Teams must get from their preseason rosters (up to 90) to a regular-season 53 by the deadline — many players will be released or waived.
  • Waivers vs. free agency: Players with fewer than four accrued NFL seasons are "waived" (subject to the waiver wire). If another team claims them, that team assumes the player's contract. Players with four or more accrued seasons are released and become free agents able to sign immediately.
  • Claim timeline: Waiver claims must be submitted by noon ET the day after the cut deadline; if a player clears waivers, teams can sign him to their practice squad (practice squads can have up to 16 players).
  • The waiver order follows the 2025 NFL Draft order (Titans first, Browns second, Giants third, Patriots fourth, etc.), so those teams get first shot at waived youngsters.
  • Practical note: If you claim a waived player you must add him to your 53 — so claiming teams often have to cut someone else to make room.

Most newsworthy moves and why they matter

  • Patriots — Layden Robinson waived/injured: New England cut a 2024 fourth-round pick, underlining how thin the depth chart is beyond starters. Reports say Drake Maye may be the only 2024 draftee likely to stick — a big red flag for New England's recent draft returns and short-term competitiveness.
  • Cincinnati Bengals — Trey Hendrickson reworked deal: Hendrickson agreed to a one-year arrangement that raises his 2025 pay to about $30M. That keeps the team's top pass-rusher in place and is a big boost for Cincinnati's defense entering the opener.
  • Washington Commanders — Terry McLaurin extension: McLaurin's three-year, up-to-$96M deal stabilizes the Commanders' top receiving target and helps young QB Jayden Daniels retain a proven No. 1 weapon — a direct on-field boost to Washington's offense and playoff hopes.
  • Las Vegas Raiders — Jakobi Meyers requests a trade; Amari Cooper returns: Meyers wants out over contract talks, but the Raiders plan to keep him. To add depth and experience they signed Amari Cooper to a one-year deal — a veteran move that affects Las Vegas' receiver hierarchy immediately.
  • Buccaneers — Shilo Sanders waived after ejection: Sanders was ejected in the preseason for throwing a punch and was waived less than 24 hours later; the Bucs may pursue him for the practice squad if he clears waivers. This is a reminder teams weigh on-field behavior as well as talent.

Preseason winners, losers and notable performances

  • Winners:
    • TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots): Big splash in limited snaps — efficient running, three catches and a 100-yard kickoff-return TD. Could push for meaningful early-season touches.
    • Jaxson Dart (Giants): Very productive in preseason (372 yards, 3 TDs), accelerating the Giants' QB succession talk even though Russell Wilson opens as the starter.
    • Frank Gore Jr. (Bills): Only player this preseason with 100+ rushing and 100+ receiving yards — boosted his odds to stick on a practice squad or grab interest if waived.
    • Kansas City starters: Mahomes looked sharp in limited work, signaling the Chiefs' offense could be explosive when the wide receivers are healthy.
  • Losers / concerns:
    • Shedeur Sanders (Browns): After a strong debut he struggled in the finale (3 completions, 5 sacks). Cleveland plans to keep four QBs and Sanders looks like a developmental piece behind Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and Dillon Gabriel.
    • Micah Parsons / Cowboys drama: Parsons' contract standoff and public back-and-forth with ownership remain a distraction for Dallas entering the season; a Netflix doc about the Jones/Cowboys era added to the headlines.
    • Players cut who drew attention: Examples include QB Ben DiNucci (Falcons), who posted a lighthearted airport beer photo after his release — a pop-culture/social-media moment amid cuts.

Narratives to watch early in the season

  • QB rooms and backup depth: Several teams reshaped backup plans; the Vikings added Carson Wentz late and other clubs shuffled QBs, meaning Week 1 depth charts could look different than expected.
  • Patriots' depth test: New England's thin roster after cuts makes early injuries more impactful — could affect their divisional race in the AFC East if depth fails to hold up.
  • Bengals defense: Retaining Hendrickson improves pass-rush outlook; if Cincinnati's defense bites, that affects AFC playoff seeding dynamics.
  • Giants succession: Jaxson Dart's preseason surge creates storyline tension for New York: how soon will he be given a real shot to replace Russell Wilson?

Rules & clarifications fans might see in headlines

  • Fighting/punching rule: Throwing a punch in-game is explicitly penalized — a 15-yard penalty and likely ejection. That explains why Shilo Sanders' punch led to an immediate ejection and significantly hurt his roster chances.
  • Waiver basics recap: Young players (under four accrued seasons) are waived and can be claimed in order of waiver priority; older veterans become free agents immediately. If unclaimed, a player can sign to any practice squad, including returning to his original team.

Notable quotes from the last 24 hours

“In what could be the start of a stretch where the Pats dismiss almost all of their draft class from a year ago, they waived/injured 2024 fourth-round pick Layden Robinson.” — Chad Graff
“You can't throw punches in this league — that's inexcusable. They're going to get you every time. You've got to grow from that.” — Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles (about Shilo Sanders)
“Thanks everyone for the [love] and support. There's a lot to learn from this preseason, but I'm really thankful for the opportunity to be out there. Day by day, rep by rep, I'll keep learning and getting better.” — Shedeur Sanders

Why this all matters — the short version for casual fans

  • Roster cuts shape Week 1: Which young players survive cuts, which veterans are traded or re-signed, and who lands on practice squads will determine which teams have depth for injuries and playoff pushes.
  • Big-name signings affect contenders: Retaining Hendrickson and extending McLaurin immediately impacts Bengals/Commanders outlooks — those moves can swing competitive balance in the AFC and NFC.
  • Preseason performances can change futures: Breakout rookies (Henderson, Dart, Gore Jr.) could earn significant roles or fantasy value; summer struggles (Shedeur) can slow a player's upward trajectory.
  • Off-field moments trend into culture: Contract fights, Netflix documentaries, social-media reactions to cuts and lighthearted posts (airport beer) keep the league in mainstream conversation — they also influence perceptions and sometimes front-office decisions.

How to follow the final moves

  • Watch for the cut deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday) and the waiver-claim window (claims due by noon ET Wednesday).
  • Live trackers from major outlets will list claims, practice-squad additions and late trades — those updates show which young players get second chances.
  • If you play fantasy, monitor practice-squad eligible players and recent breakout preseason performers — they can be late-round adds or waiver-wire targets soon after cuts.
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