NFL Picks — Week 18
CAR @ TB
Sat, Jan 3 1:30 PMPick
TB
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: Tampa Bay (TB) — home team chosen.
- Week 18 game; no spread, total, or moneyline information available.
- Quarterback statuses are listed as unknown and no major injuries are reported for either side.
- No rest or travel edge reported and weather risk is not provided; monitor for late updates.
SEA @ SF
Sat, Jan 3 5:00 PMPick
SF
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: San Francisco (SF) — current structured data shows a 50% win probability.
- Week 18 game with SF listed as the home team; no spread or total available in the provided info.
- Both teams' QB statuses are unknown in the supplied data; monitor updates before kickoff.
- No major injuries reported in the provided matchup information; check final injury reports for late changes.
- Rest is even (0‑day edge) and weather/travel details are unknown for this game.
NO @ ATL
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
ATL
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: ATL (home); listed win probability 50% and confidence 0.
- QB status for both teams is unknown, increasing uncertainty around the outcome.
- No key injuries reported and no spread/total or moneyline available, limiting handicapping detail.
- No rest advantage (0 days); weather and travel information are unknown, so home designation is a primary factor.
CLE @ CIN
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
CIN
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: CIN (home); no moneyline, spread, or total available for this game.
- Both starting QB statuses are listed as unknown, which raises uncertainty around the projection.
- No major injuries reported for either team in the provided data.
- Rest edge is 0 days; travel and weather risk are unknown — overall confidence is low.
GB @ MIN
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
MIN
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: Minnesota (home team).
- No betting line, spread or total available — market info not provided.
- Quarterback statuses are unknown and no major injuries are listed.
- Rest/travel flagged as neutral (0-day edge) and weather risk is unknown.
- Model win probability 50% with zero confidence — a cautious lean rather than a strong pick.
DAL @ NYG
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
NYG
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Week 18 at home: pick NYG as the home team in this season finale.
- No betting line or total available, so spread/over-under impact is unknown.
- Both QBs listed as unknown and no major injuries reported — quarterback availability will be decisive.
- Rest is even (no days-of-rest edge), so no clear fatigue advantage for either team.
- Model shows a 50/50 outcome and confidence is low—watch late-week injury and QB updates before betting.
TEN @ JAX
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
JAX
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: JAX (home) in Week 18.
- No betting line or total available, so treat this as a close matchup (model win probability 50%).
- QB statuses are unknown and there are no listed major injuries for either side.
- No rest/travel or weather edge (0 rest-day difference); confidence flagged as 0 given limited information.
IND @ HOU
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
HOU
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: HOU (home team) for Week 18.
- No betting line (spread/total/moneyline) available, so market signals aren't usable.
- Both teams' QB statuses are listed as unknown and no major injuries are reported for either side.
- Rest edge is 0 days; travel and weather are not specified — win probability 50% and confidence marked 0 due to limited info.
NYJ @ BUF
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
BUF
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: Buffalo (home) over the New York Jets in Week 18.
- Quarterback status for both teams is listed as unknown, so no clear QB advantage.
- No major injuries reported in the provided notes for either side.
- No betting line or total available; rest edge is neutral (0 days); travel and weather not specified.
- Model shows a 50% win probability and confidence is low given the limited information.
DET @ CHI
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
CHI
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: CHI (home) in Week 18.
- No betting line or total available, so market signal is unclear.
- QB statuses are listed as unknown and there are no reported key injuries for either team.
- No rest advantage (even days); travel and weather risk are unknown. Model shows a 50% win probability with low confidence.
LAC @ DEN
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
DEN
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: Denver (DEN) — home team in Week 18.
- No betting line posted; current data shows a roughly 50/50 win probability.
- Quarterback status and major injuries are listed as unknown/none — monitor starters and injury reports before wagering.
- No rest or travel edge shown; also check weather and late-season playoff implications closer to kickoff.
KC @ LV
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
LV
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: Las Vegas (home) to win.
- No spread or total posted yet — check lines before betting.
- Both teams' QB status listed as unknown; starter news could change the outlook.
- No key injuries reported and rest is even (0-day edge); current win probability 50% with low confidence.
ARI @ LAR
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
LAR
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Week 18 at LAR — pick: Los Angeles Rams (LAR).
- No betting line available (spread, moneyline, total not provided).
- No listed key injuries for either team; both quarterbacks' statuses are unknown in the supplied info.
- Rest edge neutral (0 days); travel and weather details not provided. Provided win probability 50% with confidence 0 (low).
MIA @ NE
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
NE
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: New England (home) in Week 18 of the 2026 season.
- No spread, total, or moneyline listed yet — lines could shift once odds are posted.
- Quarterback statuses and key injuries are listed as unknown/none; check official reports before betting.
- Rest/travel edge and weather risk are not reported; current data gives NE a 50% win probability and zero confidence.
WSH @ PHI
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
PHI
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: PHI (home team, Week 18).
- No betting lines (spread/total) available, so value and expected margin are unknown.
- Both teams show no listed major injuries; QB statuses are unknown for both sides.
- Rest/travel listed even (no edge) and weather not reported — overall confidence is low.
BAL @ PIT
Sun, Jan 4 5:20 PMPick
PIT
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- PIT (home) is the pick for Week 18 vs BAL.
- No spread, total, or moneyline available—no market signal to weigh.
- Both teams’ QB statuses are unknown and no major injuries are listed; monitor final reports.
- Rest shows no edge (0 days) and weather risk is unknown.
- Model assigns PIT a 50% win probability and indicates low confidence.
Today's Summaries
NFL Summary
Quick snapshot
- Roster cutdown day: Teams are trimming to a 53-man roster by the league deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday). That drove a flurry of cuts, trades and last-minute moves across the league.
- Big contract/retention moves: Bengals and Commanders locked in key veterans — Trey Hendrickson (one-year, ~$30M) and Terry McLaurin (3 years, up to $96M) — decisions that matter for those teams' defenses and offenses, respectively.
- Patriots continued cutting into their 2024 draft class (Layden Robinson waived/injured), highlighting roster thinness as their depth will be tested early in the season.
- Preseason takeaways: Several rookies impressed (TreVeyon Henderson, Jaxson Dart, Frank Gore Jr.) while others struggled (Shedeur Sanders), shaping who gets final roster spots and practice-squad attention.
Rosters, waivers and what those rules mean
- Cutdown basics: Teams must get from their preseason rosters (up to 90) to a regular-season 53 by the deadline — many players will be released or waived.
- Waivers vs. free agency: Players with fewer than four accrued NFL seasons are "waived" (subject to the waiver wire). If another team claims them, that team assumes the player's contract. Players with four or more accrued seasons are released and become free agents able to sign immediately.
- Claim timeline: Waiver claims must be submitted by noon ET the day after the cut deadline; if a player clears waivers, teams can sign him to their practice squad (practice squads can have up to 16 players).
The waiver order follows the 2025 NFL Draft order (Titans first, Browns second, Giants third, Patriots fourth, etc.), so those teams get first shot at waived youngsters.
- Practical note: If you claim a waived player you must add him to your 53 — so claiming teams often have to cut someone else to make room.
Most newsworthy moves and why they matter
- Patriots — Layden Robinson waived/injured: New England cut a 2024 fourth-round pick, underlining how thin the depth chart is beyond starters. Reports say Drake Maye may be the only 2024 draftee likely to stick — a big red flag for New England's recent draft returns and short-term competitiveness.
- Cincinnati Bengals — Trey Hendrickson reworked deal: Hendrickson agreed to a one-year arrangement that raises his 2025 pay to about $30M. That keeps the team's top pass-rusher in place and is a big boost for Cincinnati's defense entering the opener.
- Washington Commanders — Terry McLaurin extension: McLaurin's three-year, up-to-$96M deal stabilizes the Commanders' top receiving target and helps young QB Jayden Daniels retain a proven No. 1 weapon — a direct on-field boost to Washington's offense and playoff hopes.
- Las Vegas Raiders — Jakobi Meyers requests a trade; Amari Cooper returns: Meyers wants out over contract talks, but the Raiders plan to keep him. To add depth and experience they signed Amari Cooper to a one-year deal — a veteran move that affects Las Vegas' receiver hierarchy immediately.
- Buccaneers — Shilo Sanders waived after ejection: Sanders was ejected in the preseason for throwing a punch and was waived less than 24 hours later; the Bucs may pursue him for the practice squad if he clears waivers. This is a reminder teams weigh on-field behavior as well as talent.
Preseason winners, losers and notable performances
- Winners:
- TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots): Big splash in limited snaps — efficient running, three catches and a 100-yard kickoff-return TD. Could push for meaningful early-season touches.
- Jaxson Dart (Giants): Very productive in preseason (372 yards, 3 TDs), accelerating the Giants' QB succession talk even though Russell Wilson opens as the starter.
- Frank Gore Jr. (Bills): Only player this preseason with 100+ rushing and 100+ receiving yards — boosted his odds to stick on a practice squad or grab interest if waived.
- Kansas City starters: Mahomes looked sharp in limited work, signaling the Chiefs' offense could be explosive when the wide receivers are healthy.
- Losers / concerns:
- Shedeur Sanders (Browns): After a strong debut he struggled in the finale (3 completions, 5 sacks). Cleveland plans to keep four QBs and Sanders looks like a developmental piece behind Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and Dillon Gabriel.
- Micah Parsons / Cowboys drama: Parsons' contract standoff and public back-and-forth with ownership remain a distraction for Dallas entering the season; a Netflix doc about the Jones/Cowboys era added to the headlines.
- Players cut who drew attention: Examples include QB Ben DiNucci (Falcons), who posted a lighthearted airport beer photo after his release — a pop-culture/social-media moment amid cuts.
Narratives to watch early in the season
- QB rooms and backup depth: Several teams reshaped backup plans; the Vikings added Carson Wentz late and other clubs shuffled QBs, meaning Week 1 depth charts could look different than expected.
- Patriots' depth test: New England's thin roster after cuts makes early injuries more impactful — could affect their divisional race in the AFC East if depth fails to hold up.
- Bengals defense: Retaining Hendrickson improves pass-rush outlook; if Cincinnati's defense bites, that affects AFC playoff seeding dynamics.
- Giants succession: Jaxson Dart's preseason surge creates storyline tension for New York: how soon will he be given a real shot to replace Russell Wilson?
Rules & clarifications fans might see in headlines
- Fighting/punching rule: Throwing a punch in-game is explicitly penalized — a 15-yard penalty and likely ejection. That explains why Shilo Sanders' punch led to an immediate ejection and significantly hurt his roster chances.
- Waiver basics recap: Young players (under four accrued seasons) are waived and can be claimed in order of waiver priority; older veterans become free agents immediately. If unclaimed, a player can sign to any practice squad, including returning to his original team.
Notable quotes from the last 24 hours
“In what could be the start of a stretch where the Pats dismiss almost all of their draft class from a year ago, they waived/injured 2024 fourth-round pick Layden Robinson.” — Chad Graff
“You can't throw punches in this league — that's inexcusable. They're going to get you every time. You've got to grow from that.” — Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles (about Shilo Sanders)
“Thanks everyone for the [love] and support. There's a lot to learn from this preseason, but I'm really thankful for the opportunity to be out there. Day by day, rep by rep, I'll keep learning and getting better.” — Shedeur Sanders
Why this all matters — the short version for casual fans
- Roster cuts shape Week 1: Which young players survive cuts, which veterans are traded or re-signed, and who lands on practice squads will determine which teams have depth for injuries and playoff pushes.
- Big-name signings affect contenders: Retaining Hendrickson and extending McLaurin immediately impacts Bengals/Commanders outlooks — those moves can swing competitive balance in the AFC and NFC.
- Preseason performances can change futures: Breakout rookies (Henderson, Dart, Gore Jr.) could earn significant roles or fantasy value; summer struggles (Shedeur) can slow a player's upward trajectory.
- Off-field moments trend into culture: Contract fights, Netflix documentaries, social-media reactions to cuts and lighthearted posts (airport beer) keep the league in mainstream conversation — they also influence perceptions and sometimes front-office decisions.
How to follow the final moves
- Watch for the cut deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday) and the waiver-claim window (claims due by noon ET Wednesday).
- Live trackers from major outlets will list claims, practice-squad additions and late trades — those updates show which young players get second chances.
- If you play fantasy, monitor practice-squad eligible players and recent breakout preseason performers — they can be late-round adds or waiver-wire targets soon after cuts.