NFL Picks — Week 18
CAR @ TB
Sat, Jan 3 1:30 PMPick
TB
Win Prob
56%
Spread: -2.5
O/U: 43.5
Notes
- Pick: TB — Buccaneers are 2.5-point favorites at home (Spread -2.5 on DraftKings).
- Model win probability about 55.7% (roughly a 56% chance for TB), so this is a close matchup.
- Total set at 43.5, suggesting a moderate-scoring game; expect a game decided by a few possessions.
- QB statuses and weather are listed as unknown and there are no major injuries reported in the provided data — monitor final injury/QB reports before kickoff.
SEA @ SF
Sat, Jan 3 5:00 PMPick
SEA
Win Prob
53%
Spread: +1.5
O/U: 49.5
Notes
- Pick: SEA (+1.5 on DraftKings) — taking the points with a one-score cushion.
- Total 49.5 — market implies a mid-range scoring game, so likely stays close enough for the spread to matter.
- Both QBs listed as unknown; check final statuses before kickoff — this pick assumes no last-minute starter changes.
- No listed major injuries or rest/travel edge; pregame model gives Seattle ~53% win probability, a small lean toward the Seahawks.
TEN @ JAX
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
JAX
Win Prob
79%
Spread: -12.5
O/U: 47.5
Notes
- Pick: JAX — listed as a 12.5-point favorite on DraftKings, so the market expects a sizable Jacksonville win.
- Model win probability ~79% with low confidence (2); that backs JAX but 12.5 is still a large spread to cover.
- Both QBs show as unknown in the available info — any late starter news or scratches could change the line/value.
- Total is 47.5 and there are no listed key injuries or rest/travel edges, so monitor pregame updates but expect normal conditions.
IND @ HOU
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
HOU
Win Prob
75%
Spread: -10.5
O/U: 39.5
Notes
- Pick: HOU — model win probability ~75%; confidence low (2).
- DraftKings spread HOU −10.5; market treats Houston as a sizable favorite.
- Total 39.5 — market implies a relatively low‑scoring game.
- Uncertainties: both QBs listed as unknown, no major injuries reported, and no rest advantage — status updates could change the outlook.
DAL @ NYG
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
DAL
Win Prob
58%
Spread: +3.5
O/U: 51.5
Notes
- Pick: DAL. DraftKings shows a 3.5-point spread and a 51.5 over/under for this Week 18 matchup.
- Both teams have unknown QB status in the provided notes and no listed key injuries, so availability is a real variable.
- Week 18 game with no rest-edge (0 days difference), so neither team has a clear rest advantage per the info given.
- Model gives Dallas about a 58% win probability; the 3.5 spread and 51.5 total point to a close, moderately high-scoring game to account for when betting.
CLE @ CIN
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
CIN
Win Prob
68%
Spread: -7.5
O/U: 44.5
Notes
- CIN is a 7.5-point favorite on DraftKings; Cincinnati must win by 8+ to cover the spread.
- Model win probability ~68% for CIN, aligning with the sizable spread.
- No listed major injuries for either side; both QBs are currently listed as unknown—monitor status updates.
- Total is 44.5, suggesting a moderate-scoring game; no rest/travel edge reported and weather is unknown, so check late news before betting.
NO @ ATL
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
ATL
Win Prob
57%
Spread: -3.0
O/U: 43.5
Notes
- Pick: ATL — listed as the home favorite (Spread -3 on DraftKings).
- Model win probability for ATL ~57% (0.569).
- Total is 43.5 — market implies a moderate-scoring game.
- QB status and key injuries are listed as unknown; rest edge is neutral (0 days).
- Weather and travel notes are unknown, so no clear external advantage reported.
GB @ MIN
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
MIN
Win Prob
65%
Spread: -6.5
O/U: 36.5
Notes
- Minnesota is favored by 6.5 points with a 36.5 over/under — market expects a low-scoring game and MN to win by more than a touchdown.
- Both teams’ QB statuses are listed as unknown, a key late-breaking variable that could affect the spread.
- No major injuries reported and no rest/travel edge (0 days), so availability and depth should matter more than scheduling quirks.
- Pick MIN — projected win probability ~65%; lock in Minnesota barring late injury or QB news that changes the matchup.
MIA @ NE
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
NE
Win Prob
75%
Spread: -10.5
O/U: 45.5
Notes
- DraftKings has NE as a 10.5-point favorite with the total at 45.5; our model gives NE ~75% win probability.
- No listed major injuries for either team in the provided info.
- Week 18 shows no rest edge (0 days); travel and starting-QB status are unknown—monitor starters before kickoff.
- Weather risk is unknown; with a double-digit spread, rebuild your bet if significant wind/precip or QB news breaks.
NYJ @ BUF
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
BUF
Win Prob
67%
Spread: -7.0
O/U: 38.5
Notes
- Buffalo is the pick; DraftKings has BUF -7.
- Model win probability ~66.6% — favors Buffalo but not a guarantee to cover the full touchdown.
- Over/Under 38.5 points suggests a lower-scoring game; game script could lean on defense/ball control.
- Both teams' QB statuses are listed as unknown — watch starter confirmations before wagering.
- No major injuries listed for either side in the provided info, so the matchup edge appears intact for Buffalo.
DET @ CHI
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
CHI
Win Prob
57%
Spread: -3.0
O/U: 50.5
Notes
- DraftKings shows CHI as a 3-point home favorite with the total at 50.5.
- QB status for both teams is listed as unknown in the provided game facts.
- No major injuries are reported in the supplied matchup information.
- Model pick: CHI with about a 57% implied win probability; both teams have equal rest (0-day edge).
LAC @ DEN
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
DEN
Win Prob
79%
Spread: -12.5
O/U: 37.5
Notes
- Backing DEN at home — market has them -12.5, indicating expectation of a sizable Denver win.
- Low total (37.5) points toward a defensive or low-scoring game rather than a shootout.
- Quarterback statuses and major injuries are listed as unknown, so starter uncertainty could materially affect the result.
- Week 18 with no rest edge and travel/weather unknown; model win probability ~79% but confidence flagged low (2).
KC @ LV
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
KC
Win Prob
63%
Spread: +5.5
O/U: 36.5
Notes
- Pick: KC. DraftKings shows a 5.5-point spread and a low total (36.5), implying a one-score, lower-scoring game.
- Model projection: KC ~63% win probability per the provided pick data.
- Both teams’ QB statuses are listed as unknown and no major injuries are flagged in the game info.
- No rest or travel edge noted and weather risk is unknown, so the decision leans on the projection and market pricing.
ARI @ LAR
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
LAR
Win Prob
68%
Spread: -7.5
O/U: 46.5
Notes
- DraftKings shows LAR as a 7.5-point favorite; pick is LAR (model win probability ≈68%), implying they should cover a sizable portion of the spread.
- Both teams’ QB statuses are listed as unknown — late news on starters could swing the line, so monitor before locking wagers.
- No key injuries reported for either side in the provided info.
- Week 18 with no rest edge (0 days) and travel/weather not specified; those factors could affect late movement on the spread/total (46.5).
WSH @ PHI
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
PHI
Win Prob
67%
Spread: -7.0
O/U: 41.5
Notes
- Pick: PHI — listed as a 7-point favorite on DraftKings; game total 41.5.
- Model win probability about 66.6% in favor of PHI.
- Both teams' QB status is unknown in the provided notes; monitor starter news before wagering.
- No key injuries listed for either side in the game notes.
- No rest edge (0 days); weather and travel details not provided and could affect late lines.
BAL @ PIT
Sun, Jan 4 5:20 PMPick
BAL
Win Prob
58%
Spread: +3.5
O/U: 41.5
Notes
- Pick: Baltimore Ravens (+3.5 at DraftKings); model win probability ~58%.
- DraftKings total 41.5 points — a lower-scoring game where 3.5 points matters in a close matchup.
- Both QBs currently listed as unknown and no major injuries flagged; check starters/injury news before kickoff.
- No rest advantage (0 extra days) and standard home/away setup, so the spread value is the main edge.
Today's Summaries
NFL Summary
Quick snapshot
- Roster cutdown day: Teams are trimming to a 53-man roster by the league deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday). That drove a flurry of cuts, trades and last-minute moves across the league.
- Big contract/retention moves: Bengals and Commanders locked in key veterans — Trey Hendrickson (one-year, ~$30M) and Terry McLaurin (3 years, up to $96M) — decisions that matter for those teams' defenses and offenses, respectively.
- Patriots continued cutting into their 2024 draft class (Layden Robinson waived/injured), highlighting roster thinness as their depth will be tested early in the season.
- Preseason takeaways: Several rookies impressed (TreVeyon Henderson, Jaxson Dart, Frank Gore Jr.) while others struggled (Shedeur Sanders), shaping who gets final roster spots and practice-squad attention.
Rosters, waivers and what those rules mean
- Cutdown basics: Teams must get from their preseason rosters (up to 90) to a regular-season 53 by the deadline — many players will be released or waived.
- Waivers vs. free agency: Players with fewer than four accrued NFL seasons are "waived" (subject to the waiver wire). If another team claims them, that team assumes the player's contract. Players with four or more accrued seasons are released and become free agents able to sign immediately.
- Claim timeline: Waiver claims must be submitted by noon ET the day after the cut deadline; if a player clears waivers, teams can sign him to their practice squad (practice squads can have up to 16 players).
The waiver order follows the 2025 NFL Draft order (Titans first, Browns second, Giants third, Patriots fourth, etc.), so those teams get first shot at waived youngsters.
- Practical note: If you claim a waived player you must add him to your 53 — so claiming teams often have to cut someone else to make room.
Most newsworthy moves and why they matter
- Patriots — Layden Robinson waived/injured: New England cut a 2024 fourth-round pick, underlining how thin the depth chart is beyond starters. Reports say Drake Maye may be the only 2024 draftee likely to stick — a big red flag for New England's recent draft returns and short-term competitiveness.
- Cincinnati Bengals — Trey Hendrickson reworked deal: Hendrickson agreed to a one-year arrangement that raises his 2025 pay to about $30M. That keeps the team's top pass-rusher in place and is a big boost for Cincinnati's defense entering the opener.
- Washington Commanders — Terry McLaurin extension: McLaurin's three-year, up-to-$96M deal stabilizes the Commanders' top receiving target and helps young QB Jayden Daniels retain a proven No. 1 weapon — a direct on-field boost to Washington's offense and playoff hopes.
- Las Vegas Raiders — Jakobi Meyers requests a trade; Amari Cooper returns: Meyers wants out over contract talks, but the Raiders plan to keep him. To add depth and experience they signed Amari Cooper to a one-year deal — a veteran move that affects Las Vegas' receiver hierarchy immediately.
- Buccaneers — Shilo Sanders waived after ejection: Sanders was ejected in the preseason for throwing a punch and was waived less than 24 hours later; the Bucs may pursue him for the practice squad if he clears waivers. This is a reminder teams weigh on-field behavior as well as talent.
Preseason winners, losers and notable performances
- Winners:
- TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots): Big splash in limited snaps — efficient running, three catches and a 100-yard kickoff-return TD. Could push for meaningful early-season touches.
- Jaxson Dart (Giants): Very productive in preseason (372 yards, 3 TDs), accelerating the Giants' QB succession talk even though Russell Wilson opens as the starter.
- Frank Gore Jr. (Bills): Only player this preseason with 100+ rushing and 100+ receiving yards — boosted his odds to stick on a practice squad or grab interest if waived.
- Kansas City starters: Mahomes looked sharp in limited work, signaling the Chiefs' offense could be explosive when the wide receivers are healthy.
- Losers / concerns:
- Shedeur Sanders (Browns): After a strong debut he struggled in the finale (3 completions, 5 sacks). Cleveland plans to keep four QBs and Sanders looks like a developmental piece behind Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and Dillon Gabriel.
- Micah Parsons / Cowboys drama: Parsons' contract standoff and public back-and-forth with ownership remain a distraction for Dallas entering the season; a Netflix doc about the Jones/Cowboys era added to the headlines.
- Players cut who drew attention: Examples include QB Ben DiNucci (Falcons), who posted a lighthearted airport beer photo after his release — a pop-culture/social-media moment amid cuts.
Narratives to watch early in the season
- QB rooms and backup depth: Several teams reshaped backup plans; the Vikings added Carson Wentz late and other clubs shuffled QBs, meaning Week 1 depth charts could look different than expected.
- Patriots' depth test: New England's thin roster after cuts makes early injuries more impactful — could affect their divisional race in the AFC East if depth fails to hold up.
- Bengals defense: Retaining Hendrickson improves pass-rush outlook; if Cincinnati's defense bites, that affects AFC playoff seeding dynamics.
- Giants succession: Jaxson Dart's preseason surge creates storyline tension for New York: how soon will he be given a real shot to replace Russell Wilson?
Rules & clarifications fans might see in headlines
- Fighting/punching rule: Throwing a punch in-game is explicitly penalized — a 15-yard penalty and likely ejection. That explains why Shilo Sanders' punch led to an immediate ejection and significantly hurt his roster chances.
- Waiver basics recap: Young players (under four accrued seasons) are waived and can be claimed in order of waiver priority; older veterans become free agents immediately. If unclaimed, a player can sign to any practice squad, including returning to his original team.
Notable quotes from the last 24 hours
“In what could be the start of a stretch where the Pats dismiss almost all of their draft class from a year ago, they waived/injured 2024 fourth-round pick Layden Robinson.” — Chad Graff
“You can't throw punches in this league — that's inexcusable. They're going to get you every time. You've got to grow from that.” — Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles (about Shilo Sanders)
“Thanks everyone for the [love] and support. There's a lot to learn from this preseason, but I'm really thankful for the opportunity to be out there. Day by day, rep by rep, I'll keep learning and getting better.” — Shedeur Sanders
Why this all matters — the short version for casual fans
- Roster cuts shape Week 1: Which young players survive cuts, which veterans are traded or re-signed, and who lands on practice squads will determine which teams have depth for injuries and playoff pushes.
- Big-name signings affect contenders: Retaining Hendrickson and extending McLaurin immediately impacts Bengals/Commanders outlooks — those moves can swing competitive balance in the AFC and NFC.
- Preseason performances can change futures: Breakout rookies (Henderson, Dart, Gore Jr.) could earn significant roles or fantasy value; summer struggles (Shedeur) can slow a player's upward trajectory.
- Off-field moments trend into culture: Contract fights, Netflix documentaries, social-media reactions to cuts and lighthearted posts (airport beer) keep the league in mainstream conversation — they also influence perceptions and sometimes front-office decisions.
How to follow the final moves
- Watch for the cut deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday) and the waiver-claim window (claims due by noon ET Wednesday).
- Live trackers from major outlets will list claims, practice-squad additions and late trades — those updates show which young players get second chances.
- If you play fantasy, monitor practice-squad eligible players and recent breakout preseason performers — they can be late-round adds or waiver-wire targets soon after cuts.