NFL Picks — Week 18

CAR @ TB
Sat, Jan 3 1:30 PM
Pick
TB
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: Tampa Bay (TB) — flagged as the chosen team (50% win probability in the provided data).
  • Week 18 game with Tampa Bay listed as the home team.
  • Quarterback status for both teams is unknown and no major injuries are reported in the provided data.
  • No betting line, total, or weather information available — those factors should be checked when released.
SEA @ SF
Sat, Jan 3 5:00 PM
Pick
SF
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: SF — model lists a 50% win probability and flags confidence as low.
  • No spread or total available yet; wait for posted lines before sizing any bet.
  • Both teams' QB statuses and key injuries are listed as unknown; monitor final injury reports.
  • No rest edge (0 days difference); weather and travel details not reported — check updates before kickoff.
NO @ ATL
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AM
Pick
ATL
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: ATL — Atlanta is the home team in Week 18.
  • No betting line, spread, or total available, so no market edge is reflected.
  • Neither team's QB status or major injuries are reported and rest edge is 0 days, indicating an even matchup on paper.
  • Win probability listed at 50% with confidence 0, so this is a neutral, fact-based pick rather than one backed by clear advantages.
CLE @ CIN
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AM
Pick
CIN
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: Cincinnati — Bengals are the home team in Week 18.
  • No major injuries listed for either side; both QBs currently listed as unknown, so status could swing the game.
  • Rest is even (0-day edge); travel and weather details are not reported.
  • No spread/total or moneyline available yet—check final odds and injury reports before wagering.
GB @ MIN
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AM
Pick
MIN
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: Minnesota at home in Week 18 — home-field advantage is the clearest edge.
  • No listed key injuries for either team, so rosters appear intact on paper.
  • Both QBs are listed as unknown, which increases outcome uncertainty.
  • No spread/total or weather info available, so treat this as an effectively even matchup.
  • Win probability ~50% and confidence low, reflecting the limited information.
DAL @ NYG
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AM
Pick
NYG
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: NYG — Week 18 game in New York; no spread or total posted.
  • Both quarterbacks listed as unknown, increasing uncertainty around game plan and outcome.
  • No major injuries reported for either side in the provided data.
  • Rest is even (0-day edge) and travel/weather not specified, so this is a low-confidence pick (50% win probability).
TEN @ JAX
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AM
Pick
JAX
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Week 18 — Jacksonville (home) vs Tennessee.
  • Betting lines (spread/total/moneyline) not available in the provided data; check closer to kickoff.
  • Starting-QB statuses are listed as unknown; confirm starters pregame.
  • No key injuries appear in the supplied info; monitor injury reports for late changes.
  • Pick: JAX (data shows a 50% win probability and confidence listed as 0); verify updates before wagering.
IND @ HOU
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AM
Pick
HOU
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Backing HOU at home in Week 18.
  • No spread or total available, so the betting market gives no clear edge.
  • Quarterback statuses are listed as unknown; there are no major injuries reported for either side.
  • Projected win probability 50% with low confidence; rest/travel and weather risks are also unknown.
NYJ @ BUF
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PM
Pick
BUF
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: BUF (home team in Week 18).
  • Starting QBs are listed as unknown for both teams — confirm starters before placing a bet.
  • No major injuries reported in the supplied data and rest edge is 0 days, so no clear personnel or fatigue advantage.
  • No odds/total or weather information available; model shows a 50% win probability and zero confidence, so treat this as a cautious lean.
DET @ CHI
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PM
Pick
CHI
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: CHI — home team in Week 18.
  • Both QBs listed as unknown; availability could be decisive.
  • No key injuries reported in the provided notes; check official reports before betting.
  • No spread/total or moneyline available here and rest/travel are even (0‑day edge), so confidence is low (~50%).
LAC @ DEN
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PM
Pick
DEN
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: Denver (DEN) at home in Week 18.
  • No betting line (spread/total/moneyline) available for this game.
  • Both teams' starting QBs are listed as unknown; no major injuries reported.
  • No rest advantage (0 days); travel and weather details are unknown.
  • Projected win probability 50% with no confidence indicated—essentially a toss-up.
KC @ LV
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PM
Pick
LV
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: Las Vegas (home) over Kansas City in Week 18.
  • No betting line or total posted yet — market could move before kickoff.
  • Both QBs listed as unknown and no major injuries reported for either team.
  • No rest/travel edge (0 extra days); model win probability 50% and confidence is low, so this looks like an even matchup.
ARI @ LAR
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PM
Pick
LAR
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: LAR.
  • No spread or total published for this game — lines should be checked closer to kickoff.
  • Both teams' QB status is listed as unknown and there are no key injuries reported for either side.
  • Rest edge is even (0 days); weather and travel information for the game is not reported.
MIA @ NE
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PM
Pick
NE
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: NE — they're the home team in Week 18.
  • No major injuries listed and both QBs' statuses are unknown; monitor starter and injury reports.
  • No spread/total posted and weather is unknown, so game pricing and conditions could shift.
  • Win probability ~50% with low confidence — this is essentially a coin flip, so be cautious with bets.
WSH @ PHI
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PM
Pick
PHI
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: PHI (home team in Week 18).
  • No betting line or total available, so market edge unknown.
  • Quarterback statuses are listed as unknown and no major injuries reported, increasing uncertainty.
  • Rest edge listed as 0 days and weather/travel details are unknown, so late-season roster decisions could be a factor.
  • Model shows a 50% win probability and confidence 0 — pick reflects neutral outlook with PHI at home.
BAL @ PIT
Sun, Jan 4 5:20 PM
Pick
PIT
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: PIT (Pittsburgh) at home in Week 18.
  • No spread, total, or moneyline available yet — betting edge unclear.
  • Both teams’ QB statuses are listed as unknown; status updates could swing the game.
  • No major injuries reported and rest is even (0‑day edge); current win probability 50% with low confidence.

Today's Summaries

NFL Summary

NFL Day-in-Review — Aug 25, 2025

Quick snapshot

  • Roster cutdown day: Teams are trimming to a 53-man roster by the league deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday). That drove a flurry of cuts, trades and last-minute moves across the league.
  • Big contract/retention moves: Bengals and Commanders locked in key veterans — Trey Hendrickson (one-year, ~$30M) and Terry McLaurin (3 years, up to $96M) — decisions that matter for those teams' defenses and offenses, respectively.
  • Patriots continued cutting into their 2024 draft class (Layden Robinson waived/injured), highlighting roster thinness as their depth will be tested early in the season.
  • Preseason takeaways: Several rookies impressed (TreVeyon Henderson, Jaxson Dart, Frank Gore Jr.) while others struggled (Shedeur Sanders), shaping who gets final roster spots and practice-squad attention.

Rosters, waivers and what those rules mean

  • Cutdown basics: Teams must get from their preseason rosters (up to 90) to a regular-season 53 by the deadline — many players will be released or waived.
  • Waivers vs. free agency: Players with fewer than four accrued NFL seasons are "waived" (subject to the waiver wire). If another team claims them, that team assumes the player's contract. Players with four or more accrued seasons are released and become free agents able to sign immediately.
  • Claim timeline: Waiver claims must be submitted by noon ET the day after the cut deadline; if a player clears waivers, teams can sign him to their practice squad (practice squads can have up to 16 players).
  • The waiver order follows the 2025 NFL Draft order (Titans first, Browns second, Giants third, Patriots fourth, etc.), so those teams get first shot at waived youngsters.
  • Practical note: If you claim a waived player you must add him to your 53 — so claiming teams often have to cut someone else to make room.

Most newsworthy moves and why they matter

  • Patriots — Layden Robinson waived/injured: New England cut a 2024 fourth-round pick, underlining how thin the depth chart is beyond starters. Reports say Drake Maye may be the only 2024 draftee likely to stick — a big red flag for New England's recent draft returns and short-term competitiveness.
  • Cincinnati Bengals — Trey Hendrickson reworked deal: Hendrickson agreed to a one-year arrangement that raises his 2025 pay to about $30M. That keeps the team's top pass-rusher in place and is a big boost for Cincinnati's defense entering the opener.
  • Washington Commanders — Terry McLaurin extension: McLaurin's three-year, up-to-$96M deal stabilizes the Commanders' top receiving target and helps young QB Jayden Daniels retain a proven No. 1 weapon — a direct on-field boost to Washington's offense and playoff hopes.
  • Las Vegas Raiders — Jakobi Meyers requests a trade; Amari Cooper returns: Meyers wants out over contract talks, but the Raiders plan to keep him. To add depth and experience they signed Amari Cooper to a one-year deal — a veteran move that affects Las Vegas' receiver hierarchy immediately.
  • Buccaneers — Shilo Sanders waived after ejection: Sanders was ejected in the preseason for throwing a punch and was waived less than 24 hours later; the Bucs may pursue him for the practice squad if he clears waivers. This is a reminder teams weigh on-field behavior as well as talent.

Preseason winners, losers and notable performances

  • Winners:
    • TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots): Big splash in limited snaps — efficient running, three catches and a 100-yard kickoff-return TD. Could push for meaningful early-season touches.
    • Jaxson Dart (Giants): Very productive in preseason (372 yards, 3 TDs), accelerating the Giants' QB succession talk even though Russell Wilson opens as the starter.
    • Frank Gore Jr. (Bills): Only player this preseason with 100+ rushing and 100+ receiving yards — boosted his odds to stick on a practice squad or grab interest if waived.
    • Kansas City starters: Mahomes looked sharp in limited work, signaling the Chiefs' offense could be explosive when the wide receivers are healthy.
  • Losers / concerns:
    • Shedeur Sanders (Browns): After a strong debut he struggled in the finale (3 completions, 5 sacks). Cleveland plans to keep four QBs and Sanders looks like a developmental piece behind Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and Dillon Gabriel.
    • Micah Parsons / Cowboys drama: Parsons' contract standoff and public back-and-forth with ownership remain a distraction for Dallas entering the season; a Netflix doc about the Jones/Cowboys era added to the headlines.
    • Players cut who drew attention: Examples include QB Ben DiNucci (Falcons), who posted a lighthearted airport beer photo after his release — a pop-culture/social-media moment amid cuts.

Narratives to watch early in the season

  • QB rooms and backup depth: Several teams reshaped backup plans; the Vikings added Carson Wentz late and other clubs shuffled QBs, meaning Week 1 depth charts could look different than expected.
  • Patriots' depth test: New England's thin roster after cuts makes early injuries more impactful — could affect their divisional race in the AFC East if depth fails to hold up.
  • Bengals defense: Retaining Hendrickson improves pass-rush outlook; if Cincinnati's defense bites, that affects AFC playoff seeding dynamics.
  • Giants succession: Jaxson Dart's preseason surge creates storyline tension for New York: how soon will he be given a real shot to replace Russell Wilson?

Rules & clarifications fans might see in headlines

  • Fighting/punching rule: Throwing a punch in-game is explicitly penalized — a 15-yard penalty and likely ejection. That explains why Shilo Sanders' punch led to an immediate ejection and significantly hurt his roster chances.
  • Waiver basics recap: Young players (under four accrued seasons) are waived and can be claimed in order of waiver priority; older veterans become free agents immediately. If unclaimed, a player can sign to any practice squad, including returning to his original team.

Notable quotes from the last 24 hours

“In what could be the start of a stretch where the Pats dismiss almost all of their draft class from a year ago, they waived/injured 2024 fourth-round pick Layden Robinson.” — Chad Graff
“You can't throw punches in this league — that's inexcusable. They're going to get you every time. You've got to grow from that.” — Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles (about Shilo Sanders)
“Thanks everyone for the [love] and support. There's a lot to learn from this preseason, but I'm really thankful for the opportunity to be out there. Day by day, rep by rep, I'll keep learning and getting better.” — Shedeur Sanders

Why this all matters — the short version for casual fans

  • Roster cuts shape Week 1: Which young players survive cuts, which veterans are traded or re-signed, and who lands on practice squads will determine which teams have depth for injuries and playoff pushes.
  • Big-name signings affect contenders: Retaining Hendrickson and extending McLaurin immediately impacts Bengals/Commanders outlooks — those moves can swing competitive balance in the AFC and NFC.
  • Preseason performances can change futures: Breakout rookies (Henderson, Dart, Gore Jr.) could earn significant roles or fantasy value; summer struggles (Shedeur) can slow a player's upward trajectory.
  • Off-field moments trend into culture: Contract fights, Netflix documentaries, social-media reactions to cuts and lighthearted posts (airport beer) keep the league in mainstream conversation — they also influence perceptions and sometimes front-office decisions.

How to follow the final moves

  • Watch for the cut deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday) and the waiver-claim window (claims due by noon ET Wednesday).
  • Live trackers from major outlets will list claims, practice-squad additions and late trades — those updates show which young players get second chances.
  • If you play fantasy, monitor practice-squad eligible players and recent breakout preseason performers — they can be late-round adds or waiver-wire targets soon after cuts.
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