NFL Picks — Week 17
DAL @ WSH
Thu, Dec 25 10:00 AMPick
WAS
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- WAS is the home team in Week 17.
- No betting odds, spread, or total are available to guide the pick.
- Quarterback status for both teams is listed as unknown; no major injuries reported.
- Rest/travel edge is neutral (0 days) and weather risk is not reported.
- Pick: WAS — model shows a 50% win probability and zero confidence, indicating significant uncertainty.
DET @ MIN
Thu, Dec 25 1:30 PMPick
MIN
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: Minnesota (home) over Detroit in Week 17.
- No spread, total, or moneyline published for this matchup — treat as an even game on the board.
- Quarterback statuses are listed as unknown and there are no reported major injuries for either side.
- No rest, travel, or weather edges are noted; pick leans to the home team given the lack of other advantages.
DEN @ KC
Thu, Dec 25 5:15 PMPick
KC
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Week 17, 2025 — Kansas City (home) vs. Denver (away).
- No listed major injuries and both teams' QB statuses are unknown.
- No betting line or total available; weather and travel advantages are not reported.
- Pick: KC — assigned 50% win probability with confidence labeled 0.
HOU @ LAC
Sat, Dec 27 1:30 PMPick
LAC
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: LAC (home team in Week 17).
- No odds, spread, or total are available, so there’s no line to guide a betting choice.
- Both teams’ quarterback statuses are listed as unknown — verify starters before betting.
- No major injuries reported and rest/travel shows no edge (0 days), so treat this as an even matchup.
BAL @ GB
Sat, Dec 27 5:00 PMPick
GB
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: Green Bay (home) — Week 17, 2025.
- No betting line or total available, so no spread/over‑under guidance.
- Quarterback status for both teams listed as unknown; no major injuries reported for either side.
- No rest advantage (0 days); travel and weather not reported. Listed win probability 50% with low confidence, so the pick mainly reflects home-field as the clearest edge.
ARI @ CIN
Sun, Dec 28 10:00 AMPick
CIN
Win Prob
67%
Spread: -7.0
O/U: 53.5
Notes
- CIN is a 7-point home favorite on DraftKings; pick: Cincinnati (CIN).
- Model win probability ~66.6% in favor of CIN, backing the straight selection.
- Over/under 53.5 points implies a potentially higher-scoring game; that affects totals bettors more than this pick.
- No key injuries listed and both QBs are "unknown" in the available info — check late-week reports for any status changes in Week 17.
SEA @ CAR
Sun, Dec 28 10:00 AMPick
SEA
Win Prob
65%
Spread: +6.5
O/U: 42.5
Notes
- Pick: Seattle (SEA). DraftKings shows SEA +6.5 (road underdog); our model gives SEA ~65% win probability.
- Total is 42.5 — a middle-range line, so game could go either way scoring-wise; injuries or weather could swing it.
- No major injuries listed in the provided data; both QBs are listed as unknown — confirm starters before finalizing any wager.
- Rest/travel shows no edge (0 days); treat this as a neutral spot for both teams.
PIT @ CLE
Sun, Dec 28 10:00 AMPick
PIT
Win Prob
61%
Spread: +4.5
O/U: 35.5
Notes
- DraftKings line: PIT +4.5, Total 35.5 — backing Pittsburgh to cover.
- Model win probability ~61% for PIT, so this is a single-unit confidence play.
- No major injuries listed for either side; both QBs currently marked unknown — monitor late updates.
- Zero rest edge and no travel/weather flags; a low 35.5 total suggests a grind where the 4.5-point cushion matters.
NO @ TEN
Sun, Dec 28 10:00 AMPick
NO
Win Prob
53%
Spread: +1.5
O/U: 39.5
Notes
- Pick: New Orleans (NO) +1.5 on DraftKings — Saints get the single-point cushion on the road.
- Low total (39.5) suggests a tighter, lower-scoring game where a single point matters late.
- Both QBs listed as unknown here, so the extra point for NO has more value if a backup starts or game script is conservative.
- No major injuries or rest/travel edges noted; the model gives NO about a 53.4% win probability — a small, factual edge for the Saints.
JAX @ IND
Sun, Dec 28 10:00 AMPick
JAX
Win Prob
58%
Spread: +3.5
O/U: 48.5
Notes
- Pick: JAX (+3.5 at DraftKings) — they can cover with a 3-point loss or better.
- Model gives JAX roughly a 58% chance to win straight-up.
- Neither team has listed major injuries; QB statuses are unknown — watch starter news before betting.
- Total is 48.5 (moderate scoring expected) and there’s no rest edge; weather/travel info not provided.
TB @ MIA
Sun, Dec 28 10:00 AMPick
TB
Win Prob
63%
Spread: +5.5
O/U: 44.5
Notes
- TB is +5.5 on the spread (DraftKings); picking the Bucs gives you a cushion of about a score on the road.
- Model/pick data shows TB with roughly a 63% win probability despite the points.
- No listed major injuries for either side and both QBs are currently reported as unknown — monitor starter/injury news pregame.
- Game total 44.5 and no rest advantage (0 days); moderate scoring expected and no clear fatigue edge, so backing the dog for value makes sense.
NE @ NYJ
Sun, Dec 28 10:00 AMPick
NE
Win Prob
81%
Spread: +13.5
O/U: 42.5
Notes
- Pick NE (+13.5): New England is the sizable underdog on the DraftKings line, so the bet is on them to cover the spread.
- Total 42.5 suggests a middling scoring environment — game could skew lower-scoring, which matters if you’re pairing side with the total.
- Key QB and injury statuses are listed as unknown, so starter news before kickoff could materially change the outlook.
- Model currently favors NE to cover (≈81% in the provided pick), but confidence is low (score 2) — consider smaller size or waiting for clarifying news.
NYG @ LV
Sun, Dec 28 1:05 PMPick
NYG
Win Prob
57%
Spread: +3.0
O/U: 40.5
Notes
- DraftKings shows the Giants as 3-point underdogs (NYG +3) with a 40.5 over/under — pick: NYG.
- Model win probability for NYG ≈ 57%, so this projects as a close game despite the road dog status.
- Starting QB statuses and key injuries are listed as unknown/no major injuries reported here — check final injury/QB reports before kickoff.
- Rest/travel and weather are neutral/unknown; the 40.5 total points to a likely low-to-moderate scoring game, so expect a tight finish.
PHI @ BUF
Sun, Dec 28 1:25 PMPick
BUF
Win Prob
57%
Spread: -3.0
O/U: 44.5
Notes
- Pick: Buffalo (home) — listed as a 3-point favorite on DraftKings.
- Implied win probability ~57% per the pick data, reflecting a modest home edge.
- Both teams' QB statuses are listed as unknown, so starter uncertainty is a meaningful risk.
- No major injuries reported in the provided context, rest/travel show no edge, total set at 44.5 and weather risk is unknown.
CHI @ SF
Sun, Dec 28 5:20 PMPick
SF
Win Prob
58%
Spread: -3.5
O/U: 51.5
Notes
- Pick SF (home) — DraftKings lists San Francisco at -3.5 vs Chicago.
- Provided win probability ~58% in favor of SF, so market/model alignment leans San Francisco.
- Over/Under 51.5 implies a mid-to-high scoring game; spread is a single-possession margin.
- Both QBs are listed as unknown in the context — starter news could change the outlook; monitor status.
- No major injuries reported and no rest advantage (0 days); weather and travel details not specified — check updates before locking bets.
LAR @ ATL
Mon, Dec 29 5:15 PMPick
LAR
Win Prob
68%
Spread: +7.5
O/U: 49.5
Notes
- Pick: LAR — model gives them ~68% win probability (high confidence).
- Line: Spread 7.5, Total 49.5 (DraftKings); model still favors LAR despite the market margin.
- No major injuries listed and both QBs' statuses are unknown in the available info.
- Rest edge is neutral (0 days) and weather/travel risks are not reported, so no clear external advantage.
Today's Summaries
NFL Summary
Quick snapshot
- Roster cutdown day: Teams are trimming to a 53-man roster by the league deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday). That drove a flurry of cuts, trades and last-minute moves across the league.
- Big contract/retention moves: Bengals and Commanders locked in key veterans — Trey Hendrickson (one-year, ~$30M) and Terry McLaurin (3 years, up to $96M) — decisions that matter for those teams' defenses and offenses, respectively.
- Patriots continued cutting into their 2024 draft class (Layden Robinson waived/injured), highlighting roster thinness as their depth will be tested early in the season.
- Preseason takeaways: Several rookies impressed (TreVeyon Henderson, Jaxson Dart, Frank Gore Jr.) while others struggled (Shedeur Sanders), shaping who gets final roster spots and practice-squad attention.
Rosters, waivers and what those rules mean
- Cutdown basics: Teams must get from their preseason rosters (up to 90) to a regular-season 53 by the deadline — many players will be released or waived.
- Waivers vs. free agency: Players with fewer than four accrued NFL seasons are "waived" (subject to the waiver wire). If another team claims them, that team assumes the player's contract. Players with four or more accrued seasons are released and become free agents able to sign immediately.
- Claim timeline: Waiver claims must be submitted by noon ET the day after the cut deadline; if a player clears waivers, teams can sign him to their practice squad (practice squads can have up to 16 players).
The waiver order follows the 2025 NFL Draft order (Titans first, Browns second, Giants third, Patriots fourth, etc.), so those teams get first shot at waived youngsters.
- Practical note: If you claim a waived player you must add him to your 53 — so claiming teams often have to cut someone else to make room.
Most newsworthy moves and why they matter
- Patriots — Layden Robinson waived/injured: New England cut a 2024 fourth-round pick, underlining how thin the depth chart is beyond starters. Reports say Drake Maye may be the only 2024 draftee likely to stick — a big red flag for New England's recent draft returns and short-term competitiveness.
- Cincinnati Bengals — Trey Hendrickson reworked deal: Hendrickson agreed to a one-year arrangement that raises his 2025 pay to about $30M. That keeps the team's top pass-rusher in place and is a big boost for Cincinnati's defense entering the opener.
- Washington Commanders — Terry McLaurin extension: McLaurin's three-year, up-to-$96M deal stabilizes the Commanders' top receiving target and helps young QB Jayden Daniels retain a proven No. 1 weapon — a direct on-field boost to Washington's offense and playoff hopes.
- Las Vegas Raiders — Jakobi Meyers requests a trade; Amari Cooper returns: Meyers wants out over contract talks, but the Raiders plan to keep him. To add depth and experience they signed Amari Cooper to a one-year deal — a veteran move that affects Las Vegas' receiver hierarchy immediately.
- Buccaneers — Shilo Sanders waived after ejection: Sanders was ejected in the preseason for throwing a punch and was waived less than 24 hours later; the Bucs may pursue him for the practice squad if he clears waivers. This is a reminder teams weigh on-field behavior as well as talent.
Preseason winners, losers and notable performances
- Winners:
- TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots): Big splash in limited snaps — efficient running, three catches and a 100-yard kickoff-return TD. Could push for meaningful early-season touches.
- Jaxson Dart (Giants): Very productive in preseason (372 yards, 3 TDs), accelerating the Giants' QB succession talk even though Russell Wilson opens as the starter.
- Frank Gore Jr. (Bills): Only player this preseason with 100+ rushing and 100+ receiving yards — boosted his odds to stick on a practice squad or grab interest if waived.
- Kansas City starters: Mahomes looked sharp in limited work, signaling the Chiefs' offense could be explosive when the wide receivers are healthy.
- Losers / concerns:
- Shedeur Sanders (Browns): After a strong debut he struggled in the finale (3 completions, 5 sacks). Cleveland plans to keep four QBs and Sanders looks like a developmental piece behind Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and Dillon Gabriel.
- Micah Parsons / Cowboys drama: Parsons' contract standoff and public back-and-forth with ownership remain a distraction for Dallas entering the season; a Netflix doc about the Jones/Cowboys era added to the headlines.
- Players cut who drew attention: Examples include QB Ben DiNucci (Falcons), who posted a lighthearted airport beer photo after his release — a pop-culture/social-media moment amid cuts.
Narratives to watch early in the season
- QB rooms and backup depth: Several teams reshaped backup plans; the Vikings added Carson Wentz late and other clubs shuffled QBs, meaning Week 1 depth charts could look different than expected.
- Patriots' depth test: New England's thin roster after cuts makes early injuries more impactful — could affect their divisional race in the AFC East if depth fails to hold up.
- Bengals defense: Retaining Hendrickson improves pass-rush outlook; if Cincinnati's defense bites, that affects AFC playoff seeding dynamics.
- Giants succession: Jaxson Dart's preseason surge creates storyline tension for New York: how soon will he be given a real shot to replace Russell Wilson?
Rules & clarifications fans might see in headlines
- Fighting/punching rule: Throwing a punch in-game is explicitly penalized — a 15-yard penalty and likely ejection. That explains why Shilo Sanders' punch led to an immediate ejection and significantly hurt his roster chances.
- Waiver basics recap: Young players (under four accrued seasons) are waived and can be claimed in order of waiver priority; older veterans become free agents immediately. If unclaimed, a player can sign to any practice squad, including returning to his original team.
Notable quotes from the last 24 hours
“In what could be the start of a stretch where the Pats dismiss almost all of their draft class from a year ago, they waived/injured 2024 fourth-round pick Layden Robinson.” — Chad Graff
“You can't throw punches in this league — that's inexcusable. They're going to get you every time. You've got to grow from that.” — Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles (about Shilo Sanders)
“Thanks everyone for the [love] and support. There's a lot to learn from this preseason, but I'm really thankful for the opportunity to be out there. Day by day, rep by rep, I'll keep learning and getting better.” — Shedeur Sanders
Why this all matters — the short version for casual fans
- Roster cuts shape Week 1: Which young players survive cuts, which veterans are traded or re-signed, and who lands on practice squads will determine which teams have depth for injuries and playoff pushes.
- Big-name signings affect contenders: Retaining Hendrickson and extending McLaurin immediately impacts Bengals/Commanders outlooks — those moves can swing competitive balance in the AFC and NFC.
- Preseason performances can change futures: Breakout rookies (Henderson, Dart, Gore Jr.) could earn significant roles or fantasy value; summer struggles (Shedeur) can slow a player's upward trajectory.
- Off-field moments trend into culture: Contract fights, Netflix documentaries, social-media reactions to cuts and lighthearted posts (airport beer) keep the league in mainstream conversation — they also influence perceptions and sometimes front-office decisions.
How to follow the final moves
- Watch for the cut deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday) and the waiver-claim window (claims due by noon ET Wednesday).
- Live trackers from major outlets will list claims, practice-squad additions and late trades — those updates show which young players get second chances.
- If you play fantasy, monitor practice-squad eligible players and recent breakout preseason performers — they can be late-round adds or waiver-wire targets soon after cuts.