NFL Picks — Week 17

DAL @ WSH
Thu, Dec 25 10:00 AM
Pick
WAS
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: Washington (home) in Week 17.
  • Quarterback statuses for both teams are listed as unknown, which makes the matchup outcome dependent on starters.
  • Available info shows no major injuries for either team.
  • No betting line or total provided; rest is even (no edge) and weather/travel details are unknown, so uncertainty is higher than usual.
DET @ MIN
Thu, Dec 25 1:30 PM
Pick
MIN
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: Minnesota (home team) in the Week 17 matchup against Detroit.
  • Odds (moneyline/spread/total) are not available, so there's no betting-line edge to weigh.
  • Starting QB statuses are listed as unknown and there are no reported major injuries for either team.
  • No rest, travel, or weather advantages reported (0-day rest edge), so treat this as an even situational matchup.
DEN @ KC
Thu, Dec 25 5:15 PM
Pick
KC
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: KC (home) — Week 17, 2025.
  • No betting line, spread, or total available to inform the pick.
  • Both teams' QB statuses are listed as unknown; no major injuries reported for KC or DEN.
  • Rest is even (0-day edge); travel and weather risks are not reported.
HOU @ LAC
Sat, Dec 27 1:30 PM
Pick
LAC
Conf: Low
Win Prob 53%
Spread: -1.5 O/U: 39.5
Notes
  • DraftKings line: LAC -1.5, total 39.5 — market expects a close, lower-scoring game.
  • Model pick: LAC (≈53% win probability based on provided data).
  • QB statuses are listed as unknown; no major injuries are reported in the provided game data.
  • No rest advantage (same days); travel and weather details are not specified — check final injury reports and starters before locking a bet.
BAL @ GB
Sat, Dec 27 5:00 PM
Pick
GB
Conf: Med
Win Prob 61%
Spread: -4.5 O/U: 39.5
Notes
  • Week 17 at Lambeau: Green Bay is a 4.5-point favorite on DraftKings — pick: GB.
  • The 39.5 total is relatively low, so the market is pricing this as a lower-scoring game.
  • Key QB statuses and injuries are listed as unknown in available data, so confirm starters before betting.
  • No rest edge (0 days) and travel/weather details are unknown; model gives GB about a 61% win probability.
ARI @ CIN
Sun, Dec 28 10:00 AM
Pick
CIN
Conf: Med
Win Prob 68%
Spread: -7.5 O/U: 53.5
Notes
  • CIN is a 7.5-point home favorite on DraftKings; game total 53.5.
  • Both teams’ starting QB statuses are listed as unknown in the provided notes — check updates before kickoff.
  • No major injuries reported for either side in the supplied information.
  • Model projects CIN at roughly a 68% win probability; no rest/travel or weather edge indicated.
SEA @ CAR
Sun, Dec 28 10:00 AM
Pick
SEA
Conf: Med
Win Prob 67%
Spread: +7.0 O/U: 42.5
Notes
  • Take Seattle +7 at DraftKings — the point cushion matters in a likely close game.
  • Total 42.5 is modest, which supports taking the points in a lower-scoring/defensive tilt.
  • No listed major injuries or confirmed QB changes in the provided data, so no late-news advantage for Carolina.
  • Model gives Seattle ~67% chance (pick data); rest/travel show no edge — still check final injury reports and weather before locking.
PIT @ CLE
Sun, Dec 28 10:00 AM
Pick
PIT
Conf: Low
Win Prob 57%
Spread: +3.0 O/U: 34.5
Notes
  • PICK: PIT — taking the points as a +3 road underdog on DraftKings.
  • Low total (34.5) points to a likely close, lower-scoring game; favors a small-margin outcome.
  • QB statuses are listed as unknown and there are no reported major injuries, so no clear personnel edge for CLE.
  • No rest/travel advantage (even slate); the pick implies about a 57% chance for Pittsburgh to win/cover.
NO @ TEN
Sun, Dec 28 10:00 AM
Pick
NO
Conf: Low
Win Prob 56%
Spread: +2.5 O/U: 39.5
Notes
  • Pick: NO — DraftKings shows a 2.5-point spread and the pick expects New Orleans to get the slim edge.
  • Total 39.5 is low, implying a likely lower-scoring, defense-leaning game where turnovers and field position matter.
  • Both quarterbacks are listed as unknown and there are no major injuries reported; QB clarity could swing the outcome.
  • Rest is even (0-day edge); the projection gives NO roughly a 56% win probability, so this is a narrow, data-driven lean.
JAX @ IND
Sun, Dec 28 10:00 AM
Pick
JAX
Conf: Med
Win Prob 64%
Spread: +6.0 O/U: 48.5
Notes
  • Pick: Jacksonville at Indianapolis, take JAX +6 — model projects ~64% chance to win.
  • Book: DraftKings spread +6 for JAX, total 48.5 — market expects a mid-range scoring game.
  • No major injuries listed for either side in the provided notes.
  • QB statuses are unknown and weather is unreported — monitor starter reports and forecasts before lock.
  • Neither team has a rest/travel advantage (0 extra days), so no scheduling edge.
TB @ MIA
Sun, Dec 28 10:00 AM
Pick
TB
Conf: Med
Win Prob 64%
Spread: +6.0 O/U: 45.5
Notes
  • Pick: Tampa Bay (+6) — DraftKings shows a 6-point spread; our pick model gives TB about a 64% win probability.
  • Total 45.5 — an average scoring line, so this looks like a one-score game where those six points matter.
  • QB statuses are unknown and there are no listed major injuries for either side, so lineup uncertainty increases the value of the points.
  • No clear rest/travel or weather concerns in the available info; pick is based on the spread and model edge for TB.
NE @ NYJ
Sun, Dec 28 10:00 AM
Pick
NE
Conf: High
Win Prob 81%
Spread: +13.5 O/U: 42.5
Notes
  • Pick: New England (taking NE +13.5 on DraftKings).
  • Spread 13.5 and total 42.5 — market sees NYJ as sizable favorites in a modest-scoring game.
  • Both QBs listed as unknown and no major injuries reported, which raises outcome uncertainty.
  • Model shows ~81% win probability for NE but confidence marked low (2), so this is a contrarian/value pick versus the large spread.
NYG @ LV
Sun, Dec 28 1:05 PM
Pick
NYG
Conf: Low
Win Prob 53%
Spread: +1.5 O/U: 41.5
Notes
  • Pick: New York Giants — listed as a +1.5 road underdog on DraftKings, so a one-score margin.
  • Total 41.5: relatively low number, suggests a lower-scoring game or key role for defenses/special teams.
  • Both teams' starting QB statuses are listed as unknown in the provided game facts — confirm starters before placing bets.
  • No major injuries reported and no rest-edge (0 days) listed in the game facts.
  • Model win probability ~53.4% for NYG — a modest edge rather than a clear mismatch.
PHI @ BUF
Sun, Dec 28 1:25 PM
Pick
BUF
Conf: Low
Win Prob 53%
Spread: -1.5 O/U: 43.5
Notes
  • Pick: BUF (home) — DraftKings spread shows BUF -1.5.
  • Market expects a close game; Over/Under is 43.5, implying moderate scoring.
  • Key QB statuses are listed as unknown — any late change could shift the edge.
  • No major injuries reported and no rest/travel/weather advantage noted; model gives BUF ~53% win probability.
CHI @ SF
Sun, Dec 28 5:20 PM
Pick
SF
Conf: Low
Win Prob 57%
Spread: -3.0 O/U: 52.5
Notes
  • Pick: SF — listed as a 3-point favorite at home on DraftKings (SF -3).
  • Model/line view: SF has about a 57% win probability per the projection.
  • Key statuses: both teams' QB situations and injury reports are not listed yet — check updates before kickoff.
  • Game context: rest/travel is even (no edge) and the O/U is 52.5, signaling a moderate expected scoring environment.
LAR @ ATL
Mon, Dec 29 5:15 PM
Pick
LAR
Conf: Med
Win Prob 68%
Spread: +7.5 O/U: 49.5
Notes
  • Pick: LAR (+7.5 on DraftKings).
  • Model win probability ~68% for the Rams.
  • Both QBs listed as unknown and no major injuries reported — monitor final statuses.
  • Line: 7.5 spread, 49.5 total; no rest/travel edge and weather risk is not flagged.

Today's Summaries

NFL Summary

NFL Day-in-Review — Aug 25, 2025

Quick snapshot

  • Roster cutdown day: Teams are trimming to a 53-man roster by the league deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday). That drove a flurry of cuts, trades and last-minute moves across the league.
  • Big contract/retention moves: Bengals and Commanders locked in key veterans — Trey Hendrickson (one-year, ~$30M) and Terry McLaurin (3 years, up to $96M) — decisions that matter for those teams' defenses and offenses, respectively.
  • Patriots continued cutting into their 2024 draft class (Layden Robinson waived/injured), highlighting roster thinness as their depth will be tested early in the season.
  • Preseason takeaways: Several rookies impressed (TreVeyon Henderson, Jaxson Dart, Frank Gore Jr.) while others struggled (Shedeur Sanders), shaping who gets final roster spots and practice-squad attention.

Rosters, waivers and what those rules mean

  • Cutdown basics: Teams must get from their preseason rosters (up to 90) to a regular-season 53 by the deadline — many players will be released or waived.
  • Waivers vs. free agency: Players with fewer than four accrued NFL seasons are "waived" (subject to the waiver wire). If another team claims them, that team assumes the player's contract. Players with four or more accrued seasons are released and become free agents able to sign immediately.
  • Claim timeline: Waiver claims must be submitted by noon ET the day after the cut deadline; if a player clears waivers, teams can sign him to their practice squad (practice squads can have up to 16 players).
  • The waiver order follows the 2025 NFL Draft order (Titans first, Browns second, Giants third, Patriots fourth, etc.), so those teams get first shot at waived youngsters.
  • Practical note: If you claim a waived player you must add him to your 53 — so claiming teams often have to cut someone else to make room.

Most newsworthy moves and why they matter

  • Patriots — Layden Robinson waived/injured: New England cut a 2024 fourth-round pick, underlining how thin the depth chart is beyond starters. Reports say Drake Maye may be the only 2024 draftee likely to stick — a big red flag for New England's recent draft returns and short-term competitiveness.
  • Cincinnati Bengals — Trey Hendrickson reworked deal: Hendrickson agreed to a one-year arrangement that raises his 2025 pay to about $30M. That keeps the team's top pass-rusher in place and is a big boost for Cincinnati's defense entering the opener.
  • Washington Commanders — Terry McLaurin extension: McLaurin's three-year, up-to-$96M deal stabilizes the Commanders' top receiving target and helps young QB Jayden Daniels retain a proven No. 1 weapon — a direct on-field boost to Washington's offense and playoff hopes.
  • Las Vegas Raiders — Jakobi Meyers requests a trade; Amari Cooper returns: Meyers wants out over contract talks, but the Raiders plan to keep him. To add depth and experience they signed Amari Cooper to a one-year deal — a veteran move that affects Las Vegas' receiver hierarchy immediately.
  • Buccaneers — Shilo Sanders waived after ejection: Sanders was ejected in the preseason for throwing a punch and was waived less than 24 hours later; the Bucs may pursue him for the practice squad if he clears waivers. This is a reminder teams weigh on-field behavior as well as talent.

Preseason winners, losers and notable performances

  • Winners:
    • TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots): Big splash in limited snaps — efficient running, three catches and a 100-yard kickoff-return TD. Could push for meaningful early-season touches.
    • Jaxson Dart (Giants): Very productive in preseason (372 yards, 3 TDs), accelerating the Giants' QB succession talk even though Russell Wilson opens as the starter.
    • Frank Gore Jr. (Bills): Only player this preseason with 100+ rushing and 100+ receiving yards — boosted his odds to stick on a practice squad or grab interest if waived.
    • Kansas City starters: Mahomes looked sharp in limited work, signaling the Chiefs' offense could be explosive when the wide receivers are healthy.
  • Losers / concerns:
    • Shedeur Sanders (Browns): After a strong debut he struggled in the finale (3 completions, 5 sacks). Cleveland plans to keep four QBs and Sanders looks like a developmental piece behind Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and Dillon Gabriel.
    • Micah Parsons / Cowboys drama: Parsons' contract standoff and public back-and-forth with ownership remain a distraction for Dallas entering the season; a Netflix doc about the Jones/Cowboys era added to the headlines.
    • Players cut who drew attention: Examples include QB Ben DiNucci (Falcons), who posted a lighthearted airport beer photo after his release — a pop-culture/social-media moment amid cuts.

Narratives to watch early in the season

  • QB rooms and backup depth: Several teams reshaped backup plans; the Vikings added Carson Wentz late and other clubs shuffled QBs, meaning Week 1 depth charts could look different than expected.
  • Patriots' depth test: New England's thin roster after cuts makes early injuries more impactful — could affect their divisional race in the AFC East if depth fails to hold up.
  • Bengals defense: Retaining Hendrickson improves pass-rush outlook; if Cincinnati's defense bites, that affects AFC playoff seeding dynamics.
  • Giants succession: Jaxson Dart's preseason surge creates storyline tension for New York: how soon will he be given a real shot to replace Russell Wilson?

Rules & clarifications fans might see in headlines

  • Fighting/punching rule: Throwing a punch in-game is explicitly penalized — a 15-yard penalty and likely ejection. That explains why Shilo Sanders' punch led to an immediate ejection and significantly hurt his roster chances.
  • Waiver basics recap: Young players (under four accrued seasons) are waived and can be claimed in order of waiver priority; older veterans become free agents immediately. If unclaimed, a player can sign to any practice squad, including returning to his original team.

Notable quotes from the last 24 hours

“In what could be the start of a stretch where the Pats dismiss almost all of their draft class from a year ago, they waived/injured 2024 fourth-round pick Layden Robinson.” — Chad Graff
“You can't throw punches in this league — that's inexcusable. They're going to get you every time. You've got to grow from that.” — Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles (about Shilo Sanders)
“Thanks everyone for the [love] and support. There's a lot to learn from this preseason, but I'm really thankful for the opportunity to be out there. Day by day, rep by rep, I'll keep learning and getting better.” — Shedeur Sanders

Why this all matters — the short version for casual fans

  • Roster cuts shape Week 1: Which young players survive cuts, which veterans are traded or re-signed, and who lands on practice squads will determine which teams have depth for injuries and playoff pushes.
  • Big-name signings affect contenders: Retaining Hendrickson and extending McLaurin immediately impacts Bengals/Commanders outlooks — those moves can swing competitive balance in the AFC and NFC.
  • Preseason performances can change futures: Breakout rookies (Henderson, Dart, Gore Jr.) could earn significant roles or fantasy value; summer struggles (Shedeur) can slow a player's upward trajectory.
  • Off-field moments trend into culture: Contract fights, Netflix documentaries, social-media reactions to cuts and lighthearted posts (airport beer) keep the league in mainstream conversation — they also influence perceptions and sometimes front-office decisions.

How to follow the final moves

  • Watch for the cut deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday) and the waiver-claim window (claims due by noon ET Wednesday).
  • Live trackers from major outlets will list claims, practice-squad additions and late trades — those updates show which young players get second chances.
  • If you play fantasy, monitor practice-squad eligible players and recent breakout preseason performers — they can be late-round adds or waiver-wire targets soon after cuts.
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