NFL Picks — Week 15
ATL @ TB
Thu, Dec 11 5:15 PMPick
TB
Win Prob
61%
Spread: -4.5
O/U: 44.5
Notes
- Pick: TB — listed as a 4.5-point favorite (TB -4.5), so they need to win by 5+ to cover.
- Model win probability ~60.6% for TB, consistent with the favorite status.
- Quarterback status for both teams is listed as unknown, so starter clarity could change outlook.
- No major injuries reported for either side; rest edge is neutral (0 days) and weather/travel are unknown.
- Game total is 44.5, so a mid-range scoring game is implied but conditions and QBs could shift that line.
CLE @ CHI
Sun, Dec 14 10:00 AMPick
CHI
Win Prob
68%
Spread: -7.5
O/U: 39.5
Notes
- CHI is a 7.5-point favorite on DraftKings; pick remains CHI to win.
- Low total (39.5) suggests a likely lower-scoring, defense-leaning game.
- Both QBs listed as unknown and no major injuries reported; monitor starter/injury news before lock.
- No rest or travel edge noted; model gives CHI ~68% win probability — check weather closer to kickoff.
BAL @ CIN
Sun, Dec 14 10:00 AMPick
BAL
Win Prob
56%
Spread: +2.5
O/U: 52.5
Notes
- Baltimore is the 2.5-point favorite on DraftKings; the pick is BAL and the model estimates about a 56% win probability for Baltimore.
- The total is 52.5, which implies a moderate-scoring game—monitor offensive matchups if you care about the over/under.
- Available information does not list either team’s confirmed starting QB or any major injuries; those late developments could change the outlook.
- No rest/travel edge reported and weather conditions are not yet flagged—check late-week reports before placing a bet.
LAC @ KC
Sun, Dec 14 10:00 AMPick
KC
Win Prob
61%
Spread: -4.5
O/U: 41.5
Notes
- KC is a 4.5-point favorite at DraftKings; pick is KC in a game projected to be close.
- Model win probability for KC ≈ 60% (pick: KC).
- No major injuries listed and rest is even — no clear off-field edge for either team.
- Low total (41.5) suggests a potentially contained, single‑possession game; QB statuses are unknown, so monitor starters before placing a bet.
BUF @ NE
Sun, Dec 14 10:00 AMPick
BUF
Win Prob
53%
Spread: +1.5
O/U: 50.5
Notes
- Pick: BUF — listed around a 1.5-point favorite on DraftKings; total is 50.5.
- QB status for both teams is unknown in the provided notes, so starters could change the outlook.
- No major injuries reported for either team in the supplied context.
- No rest or travel edge and weather risk not reported; the small spread suggests a close game where Buffalo is the lean.
WSH @ NYG
Sun, Dec 14 10:00 AMPick
NYG
Win Prob
56%
Spread: -2.5
O/U: 47.5
Notes
- NYG are 2.5-point home favorites on DraftKings — spread implies a close, one-score game; pick: NYG.
- Game total is 47.5, suggesting a mid-40s scoring projection rather than a shootout or grinding defensive game.
- Both teams list QB status as unknown, which lowers certainty; monitor starter reports before betting size.
- No major injuries reported and no rest/travel edge (0 days); model gives NYG roughly a 56% win probability.
LV @ PHI
Sun, Dec 14 10:00 AMPick
PHI
Win Prob
77%
Spread: -11.5
O/U: 38.5
Notes
- Pick: PHI. DraftKings has PHI -11.5, so they must win by 12+ to cover the spread.
- Total is 38.5 — market implies a lower-scoring game, so expect limited scoring upside versus the spread.
- No listed major injuries or confirmed QB statuses in the provided info — monitor late-week reports for changes.
- No rest/travel edge noted; model win probability ~77% but confidence is low (2), so there is measurable uncertainty.
NYJ @ JAX
Sun, Dec 14 10:00 AMPick
JAX
Win Prob
79%
Spread: -12.5
O/U: 41.5
Notes
- DraftKings shows JAX as a 12.5-point favorite — market expects a clear Jacksonville win.
- Game total is 41.5, suggesting a modest-scoring matchup rather than a shootout.
- Provided data lists QB statuses as unknown and no major injuries, so no injury-driven reason to stray from the line.
- Rest, travel, and weather are not indicated; the model gives JAX ~79% win probability (confidence 2), so the pick is JAX.
ARI @ HOU
Sun, Dec 14 10:00 AMPick
HOU
Win Prob
73%
Spread: -9.5
O/U: 42.5
Notes
- HOU is a 9.5-point home favorite — market expects a clear win (need 10+ to cover).
- Model win probability for HOU ≈ 72% (per provided pick data).
- Both QBs listed as "unknown," a key game-changing uncertainty.
- No major injuries reported and rest/travel show no edge for either team.
- Game total 42.5 points — market expects a moderate-scoring contest.
GB @ DEN
Sun, Dec 14 1:25 PMPick
GB
Win Prob
56%
Spread: +2.5
O/U: 43.5
Notes
- Pick: Green Bay (+2.5 on DraftKings); model gives GB about a 56% win probability.
- Spread is small — GB only needs to cover a field goal, so this is a tight, pick‑'em style game on the market.
- Total 43.5 suggests a middling scoring game; keep an eye on late injury and QB news that could swing the number.
- Quarterback statuses are currently listed as unknown, which is the main late-game risk to this pick.
- No major injuries reported and no rest/travel edge shown in the available info, so the line likely reflects a pure matchup call.
DET @ LAR
Sun, Dec 14 1:25 PMPick
LAR
Win Prob
63%
Spread: -5.5
O/U: 55.5
Notes
- LAR is a 5.5-point favorite at DraftKings — pick: LAR (needs 6+ points to cover).
- Model gives LAR ~63% win probability, supporting the favorite side against the spread.
- Total is 55.5 — implies ~56 combined points (roughly mid-20s per team), not an extreme shootout projection.
- Both QBs listed as unknown; late confirmations or changes could swing the line.
- No major injuries reported and no rest/travel edge noted in the available info.
CAR @ NO
Sun, Dec 14 1:25 PMPick
CAR
Win Prob
56%
Spread: +2.5
O/U: 40.5
Notes
- Carolina +2.5 at New Orleans — you're taking the road points in a one-score game.
- Total 40.5 — a modest number, so plan for a lower-to-moderate scoring affair.
- QB status and key injuries are listed as unknown for both teams; any late changes would matter.
- Model gives CAR ~56% win probability; rest is even (0-day edge) while New Orleans has the home-field advantage.
TEN @ SF
Sun, Dec 14 1:25 PMPick
SF
Win Prob
79%
Spread: -12.5
O/U: 44.5
Notes
- DraftKings lists SF -12.5; pick: San Francisco to cover.
- Model projects SF with about a 79% chance to win.
- QB statuses and key injuries are listed as unknown — monitor pregame reports.
- Over/under 44.5; no rest/travel or weather advantage noted in the available info.
IND @ SEA
Sun, Dec 14 1:25 PMPick
SEA
Win Prob
81%
Spread: -13.5
O/U: 42.5
Notes
- SEA is a 13.5-point favorite on DraftKings; pick is SEA.
- Over/under 42.5 — market implies a modest-scoring game.
- Both QBs listed as unknown, which adds uncertainty for pace and the spread.
- No major injuries reported and no rest/travel edge; model gives SEA about an 81% win probability.
MIN @ DAL
Sun, Dec 14 5:20 PMPick
DAL
Win Prob
63%
Spread: -5.5
O/U: 47.5
Notes
- Pick: DAL — listed as 5.5-point favorite on DraftKings.
- Model win probability ~63% in favor of Dallas.
- No major injuries noted; both teams' QB statuses are currently unknown — check updates before kickoff.
- No rest/travel edge (0 days); total 47.5 points indicates a moderate scoring game where a touchdown margin would cover the spread.
MIA @ PIT
Mon, Dec 15 5:15 PMPick
PIT
Win Prob
57%
Spread: -3.0
O/U: 42.5
Notes
- Pick PIT (home) — listed as a 3-point favorite on DraftKings.
- Provided win probability ~57%, so a modest edge but not overwhelming.
- Both QBs show “unknown” status and there are no listed major injuries, so player availability is a key uncertainty.
- Spread (3) and total 42.5 suggest a close, lower-scoring game; no rest/travel or weather advantage is noted.
Today's Summaries
NFL Summary
Quick snapshot
- Roster cutdown day: Teams are trimming to a 53-man roster by the league deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday). That drove a flurry of cuts, trades and last-minute moves across the league.
- Big contract/retention moves: Bengals and Commanders locked in key veterans — Trey Hendrickson (one-year, ~$30M) and Terry McLaurin (3 years, up to $96M) — decisions that matter for those teams' defenses and offenses, respectively.
- Patriots continued cutting into their 2024 draft class (Layden Robinson waived/injured), highlighting roster thinness as their depth will be tested early in the season.
- Preseason takeaways: Several rookies impressed (TreVeyon Henderson, Jaxson Dart, Frank Gore Jr.) while others struggled (Shedeur Sanders), shaping who gets final roster spots and practice-squad attention.
Rosters, waivers and what those rules mean
- Cutdown basics: Teams must get from their preseason rosters (up to 90) to a regular-season 53 by the deadline — many players will be released or waived.
- Waivers vs. free agency: Players with fewer than four accrued NFL seasons are "waived" (subject to the waiver wire). If another team claims them, that team assumes the player's contract. Players with four or more accrued seasons are released and become free agents able to sign immediately.
- Claim timeline: Waiver claims must be submitted by noon ET the day after the cut deadline; if a player clears waivers, teams can sign him to their practice squad (practice squads can have up to 16 players).
The waiver order follows the 2025 NFL Draft order (Titans first, Browns second, Giants third, Patriots fourth, etc.), so those teams get first shot at waived youngsters.
- Practical note: If you claim a waived player you must add him to your 53 — so claiming teams often have to cut someone else to make room.
Most newsworthy moves and why they matter
- Patriots — Layden Robinson waived/injured: New England cut a 2024 fourth-round pick, underlining how thin the depth chart is beyond starters. Reports say Drake Maye may be the only 2024 draftee likely to stick — a big red flag for New England's recent draft returns and short-term competitiveness.
- Cincinnati Bengals — Trey Hendrickson reworked deal: Hendrickson agreed to a one-year arrangement that raises his 2025 pay to about $30M. That keeps the team's top pass-rusher in place and is a big boost for Cincinnati's defense entering the opener.
- Washington Commanders — Terry McLaurin extension: McLaurin's three-year, up-to-$96M deal stabilizes the Commanders' top receiving target and helps young QB Jayden Daniels retain a proven No. 1 weapon — a direct on-field boost to Washington's offense and playoff hopes.
- Las Vegas Raiders — Jakobi Meyers requests a trade; Amari Cooper returns: Meyers wants out over contract talks, but the Raiders plan to keep him. To add depth and experience they signed Amari Cooper to a one-year deal — a veteran move that affects Las Vegas' receiver hierarchy immediately.
- Buccaneers — Shilo Sanders waived after ejection: Sanders was ejected in the preseason for throwing a punch and was waived less than 24 hours later; the Bucs may pursue him for the practice squad if he clears waivers. This is a reminder teams weigh on-field behavior as well as talent.
Preseason winners, losers and notable performances
- Winners:
- TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots): Big splash in limited snaps — efficient running, three catches and a 100-yard kickoff-return TD. Could push for meaningful early-season touches.
- Jaxson Dart (Giants): Very productive in preseason (372 yards, 3 TDs), accelerating the Giants' QB succession talk even though Russell Wilson opens as the starter.
- Frank Gore Jr. (Bills): Only player this preseason with 100+ rushing and 100+ receiving yards — boosted his odds to stick on a practice squad or grab interest if waived.
- Kansas City starters: Mahomes looked sharp in limited work, signaling the Chiefs' offense could be explosive when the wide receivers are healthy.
- Losers / concerns:
- Shedeur Sanders (Browns): After a strong debut he struggled in the finale (3 completions, 5 sacks). Cleveland plans to keep four QBs and Sanders looks like a developmental piece behind Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and Dillon Gabriel.
- Micah Parsons / Cowboys drama: Parsons' contract standoff and public back-and-forth with ownership remain a distraction for Dallas entering the season; a Netflix doc about the Jones/Cowboys era added to the headlines.
- Players cut who drew attention: Examples include QB Ben DiNucci (Falcons), who posted a lighthearted airport beer photo after his release — a pop-culture/social-media moment amid cuts.
Narratives to watch early in the season
- QB rooms and backup depth: Several teams reshaped backup plans; the Vikings added Carson Wentz late and other clubs shuffled QBs, meaning Week 1 depth charts could look different than expected.
- Patriots' depth test: New England's thin roster after cuts makes early injuries more impactful — could affect their divisional race in the AFC East if depth fails to hold up.
- Bengals defense: Retaining Hendrickson improves pass-rush outlook; if Cincinnati's defense bites, that affects AFC playoff seeding dynamics.
- Giants succession: Jaxson Dart's preseason surge creates storyline tension for New York: how soon will he be given a real shot to replace Russell Wilson?
Rules & clarifications fans might see in headlines
- Fighting/punching rule: Throwing a punch in-game is explicitly penalized — a 15-yard penalty and likely ejection. That explains why Shilo Sanders' punch led to an immediate ejection and significantly hurt his roster chances.
- Waiver basics recap: Young players (under four accrued seasons) are waived and can be claimed in order of waiver priority; older veterans become free agents immediately. If unclaimed, a player can sign to any practice squad, including returning to his original team.
Notable quotes from the last 24 hours
“In what could be the start of a stretch where the Pats dismiss almost all of their draft class from a year ago, they waived/injured 2024 fourth-round pick Layden Robinson.” — Chad Graff
“You can't throw punches in this league — that's inexcusable. They're going to get you every time. You've got to grow from that.” — Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles (about Shilo Sanders)
“Thanks everyone for the [love] and support. There's a lot to learn from this preseason, but I'm really thankful for the opportunity to be out there. Day by day, rep by rep, I'll keep learning and getting better.” — Shedeur Sanders
Why this all matters — the short version for casual fans
- Roster cuts shape Week 1: Which young players survive cuts, which veterans are traded or re-signed, and who lands on practice squads will determine which teams have depth for injuries and playoff pushes.
- Big-name signings affect contenders: Retaining Hendrickson and extending McLaurin immediately impacts Bengals/Commanders outlooks — those moves can swing competitive balance in the AFC and NFC.
- Preseason performances can change futures: Breakout rookies (Henderson, Dart, Gore Jr.) could earn significant roles or fantasy value; summer struggles (Shedeur) can slow a player's upward trajectory.
- Off-field moments trend into culture: Contract fights, Netflix documentaries, social-media reactions to cuts and lighthearted posts (airport beer) keep the league in mainstream conversation — they also influence perceptions and sometimes front-office decisions.
How to follow the final moves
- Watch for the cut deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday) and the waiver-claim window (claims due by noon ET Wednesday).
- Live trackers from major outlets will list claims, practice-squad additions and late trades — those updates show which young players get second chances.
- If you play fantasy, monitor practice-squad eligible players and recent breakout preseason performers — they can be late-round adds or waiver-wire targets soon after cuts.