NFL Picks — Week 3
MIA @ BUF
Thu, Sep 18 5:15 PMPick
BUF
Win Prob
77%
Spread: -11.5
O/U: 50.5
Notes
- Buffalo listed as an 11.5-point favorite (ESPN BET); internal model gives BUF ~77% win probability — pick: BUF.
- Both teams’ QB statuses are unknown in the provided data — late news could change the outlook for scoring and the spread.
- No major injuries reported in the supplied matchup info, so no clear roster advantage from that angle.
- Rest is even (0-day edge) and the total is 50.5; with QB/information uncertainties confidence is low (2/5), so treat the spread cautiously.
GB @ CLE
Sun, Sep 21 10:00 AMPick
GB
Win Prob
68%
Spread: +7.5
O/U: 41.5
Notes
- Line: Packers +7.5, total 41.5 (ESPN BET) — GB gets a full touchdown on the road.
- Model/edge: Pick favors GB with a ~67.8% win probability in the provided pick data.
- QB status is listed as unknown for both teams and there are no key injuries flagged for either side.
- No rest, travel or weather advantages noted in the game data, so those factors are treated as neutral.
IND @ TEN
Sun, Sep 21 10:00 AMPick
IND
Win Prob
61%
Spread: +4.5
O/U: 43.5
Notes
- Pick: IND (+4.5) on a 43.5 total — Colts get 4.5 points on the spread.
- Model win probability favors IND (~61%), so the line suggests possible value on the away side.
- QB statuses for both teams are currently unconfirmed; check starter news before kickoff.
- No major injuries listed for either team and no rest advantage (0 days); weather risk is unknown.
CIN @ MIN
Sun, Sep 21 10:00 AMPick
MIN
Win Prob
56%
Spread: -2.5
O/U: 41.5
Notes
- Pick: MIN (home) — currently favored by 2.5 points (spread -2.5).
- Model implied win probability ~56%, so a small but clear lean toward Minnesota.
- Game total 41.5 suggests a moderate scoring environment; expect a relatively close contest.
- No major injuries reported in the provided data; both QBs are listed as unknown—monitor QB news pregame. Rest/travel and weather are listed as neutral/unknown.
PIT @ NE
Sun, Sep 21 10:00 AMPick
PIT
Win Prob
53%
Spread: +1.5
O/U: 44.5
Notes
- Pittsburgh is a narrow favorite (about a 1.5-point spread on ESPN BET) — pick: PIT.
- Game total is 44.5, so it's priced as a modest-scoring matchup.
- Quarterback statuses are listed as unknown and there are no major injuries reported — key items to check before kickoff.
- No rest/travel edge noted; model-derived win probability for PIT is roughly 53%.
LAR @ PHI
Sun, Sep 21 10:00 AMPick
PHI
Win Prob
58%
Spread: -3.5
O/U: 45.5
Notes
- ESPN BET lists PHI as a 3.5-point favorite at home — pick: PHI to cover the spread.
- Game total is 45.5, a middling number; with QB statuses listed as unknown the scoring outlook is uncertain.
- No listed key injuries and no rest edge (0 days), so no obvious personnel or fatigue advantage right now.
- Model/projected chance for PHI is about 58% — monitor late-breaking QB/injury reports and weather before locking bets.
NYJ @ TB
Sun, Sep 21 10:00 AMPick
TB
Win Prob
65%
Spread: -6.5
O/U: 43.5
Notes
- Pick: TB (Favored by -6.5; spread per ESPN BET).
- Model win probability ~65% for Tampa Bay, supporting the TB pick.
- Over/Under is 43.5 — a middling total that implies a moderately paced game expected.
- Key uncertainties: both QBs listed as unknown and no major injuries reported; monitor starter/injury news before betting.
LV @ WSH
Sun, Sep 21 10:00 AMPick
WAS
Win Prob
58%
Spread: -3.5
O/U: 44.5
Notes
- Pick: WAS — model gives roughly a 58% chance to win.
- Spread is WAS -3.5 (need a 4+ point win to cover); total 44.5 implies modest scoring expectations.
- Both QBs listed as unknown — monitor starter/status updates before game time.
- No major injuries reported and no clear rest/travel or weather advantage noted.
ATL @ CAR
Sun, Sep 21 10:00 AMPick
ATL
Win Prob
63%
Spread: +5.5
O/U: 43.5
Notes
- Pick: Atlanta (+5.5) on the spread.
- Model gives ATL about a 63% win probability, implying confidence they can cover 5.5 points.
- No major injuries listed; both QBs and the weather are currently unknown — monitor starter and injury news.
- Game total 43.5 is modest, suggesting a lower-scoring, close game; no rest or travel edge noted.
HOU @ JAX
Sun, Sep 21 10:00 AMPick
JAX
Win Prob
53%
Spread: -1.5
O/U: 44.5
Notes
- JAX is the home favorite (ESPN BET spread -1.5); the pick gives Jacksonville about a 53% win probability.
- Both teams list starting QB status as unknown, adding uncertainty that can swing the game and the spread.
- No major injuries reported for either side and no rest advantage (0 days), so rosters look largely intact.
- Game total 44.5 implies moderate scoring; with QB uncertainty, the small home spread is a cleaner play than leaning the over.
DEN @ LAC
Sun, Sep 21 1:05 PMPick
LAC
Win Prob
56%
Spread: -2.5
O/U: 45.5
Notes
- ESPN BET has LAC as a 2.5-point favorite; the pick implies about a 56% chance for LAC — a modest edge, so lean LAC to cover.
- Total is 45.5, a middle-range number suggesting a modest-scoring game; factor that into any side or parlay decisions.
- Both teams' QB statuses are listed as unknown — monitor starters before kickoff, as that could change the outlook.
- No major injuries reported and no rest advantage (0 days); travel and weather are not flagged, so on-field matchups will drive the result.
NO @ SEA
Sun, Sep 21 1:05 PMPick
SEA
Win Prob
68%
Spread: -7.5
O/U: 41.5
Notes
- Pick: SEA — listed as a 7.5-point home favorite (ESPN BET spread).
- Total set at 41.5, a relatively modest number that points toward a lower-scoring game than many NFL matchups.
- Quarterback statuses are listed as unknown and there are no major injuries reported for either side, which adds roster stability but also uncertainty about game-day starters.
- No rest or travel edge is indicated; the model-implied win probability for SEA is about 68%, which aligns with the sizable spread.
DAL @ CHI
Sun, Sep 21 1:25 PMPick
DAL
Win Prob
53%
Spread: +1.5
O/U: 50.5
Notes
- Dallas is a 1.5‑point favorite on ESPN BET, so this is a single‑score game on the spread.
- Over/Under is 50.5, indicating a medium scoring expectation for both teams.
- Both teams list QB status as unknown and no major injuries are reported, adding some uncertainty.
- Rest shows no edge for either side; pick is DAL with an implied win probability of about 53%.
ARI @ SF
Sun, Sep 21 1:25 PMPick
SF
Win Prob
56%
Spread: -2.5
O/U: 45.5
Notes
- SF is a slight home favorite (-2.5 on ESPN BET); pick SF to cover the small spread.
- Model win probability ~56% for SF, reflecting a modest edge rather than a blowout.
- Game total 45.5 suggests moderate scoring — likely a one-possession game where late plays matter.
- No major injuries listed and no rest advantage; QB statuses are unknown, so monitor late reports before kickoff.
KC @ NYG
Sun, Sep 21 5:20 PMPick
KC
Win Prob
65%
Spread: +6.5
O/U: 45.5
Notes
- Pick: KC — sportsbooks list Kansas City as a 6.5-point favorite (ESPN BET).
- Model win probability about 65% in favor of KC.
- Both teams show QB status as unknown and no major injuries reported in the game notes.
- Game total is 45.5; no rest or travel edge noted (0 days difference).
DET @ BAL
Mon, Sep 22 5:15 PMPick
BAL
Win Prob
61%
Spread: -4.5
O/U: 52.5
Notes
- Pick: BAL.
- Spread BAL -4.5 — Baltimore needs a 5+ point win to cover.
- Market total 52.5 suggests an expectation of roughly mid-50s scoring between the teams.
- QB status, major injuries, weather and travel edge are listed as unknown — monitor starter and injury reports before kickoff; model win probability ~61%.
Today's Summaries
NFL Summary
Quick snapshot
- Roster cutdown day: Teams are trimming to a 53-man roster by the league deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday). That drove a flurry of cuts, trades and last-minute moves across the league.
- Big contract/retention moves: Bengals and Commanders locked in key veterans — Trey Hendrickson (one-year, ~$30M) and Terry McLaurin (3 years, up to $96M) — decisions that matter for those teams' defenses and offenses, respectively.
- Patriots continued cutting into their 2024 draft class (Layden Robinson waived/injured), highlighting roster thinness as their depth will be tested early in the season.
- Preseason takeaways: Several rookies impressed (TreVeyon Henderson, Jaxson Dart, Frank Gore Jr.) while others struggled (Shedeur Sanders), shaping who gets final roster spots and practice-squad attention.
Rosters, waivers and what those rules mean
- Cutdown basics: Teams must get from their preseason rosters (up to 90) to a regular-season 53 by the deadline — many players will be released or waived.
- Waivers vs. free agency: Players with fewer than four accrued NFL seasons are "waived" (subject to the waiver wire). If another team claims them, that team assumes the player's contract. Players with four or more accrued seasons are released and become free agents able to sign immediately.
- Claim timeline: Waiver claims must be submitted by noon ET the day after the cut deadline; if a player clears waivers, teams can sign him to their practice squad (practice squads can have up to 16 players).
The waiver order follows the 2025 NFL Draft order (Titans first, Browns second, Giants third, Patriots fourth, etc.), so those teams get first shot at waived youngsters.
- Practical note: If you claim a waived player you must add him to your 53 — so claiming teams often have to cut someone else to make room.
Most newsworthy moves and why they matter
- Patriots — Layden Robinson waived/injured: New England cut a 2024 fourth-round pick, underlining how thin the depth chart is beyond starters. Reports say Drake Maye may be the only 2024 draftee likely to stick — a big red flag for New England's recent draft returns and short-term competitiveness.
- Cincinnati Bengals — Trey Hendrickson reworked deal: Hendrickson agreed to a one-year arrangement that raises his 2025 pay to about $30M. That keeps the team's top pass-rusher in place and is a big boost for Cincinnati's defense entering the opener.
- Washington Commanders — Terry McLaurin extension: McLaurin's three-year, up-to-$96M deal stabilizes the Commanders' top receiving target and helps young QB Jayden Daniels retain a proven No. 1 weapon — a direct on-field boost to Washington's offense and playoff hopes.
- Las Vegas Raiders — Jakobi Meyers requests a trade; Amari Cooper returns: Meyers wants out over contract talks, but the Raiders plan to keep him. To add depth and experience they signed Amari Cooper to a one-year deal — a veteran move that affects Las Vegas' receiver hierarchy immediately.
- Buccaneers — Shilo Sanders waived after ejection: Sanders was ejected in the preseason for throwing a punch and was waived less than 24 hours later; the Bucs may pursue him for the practice squad if he clears waivers. This is a reminder teams weigh on-field behavior as well as talent.
Preseason winners, losers and notable performances
- Winners:
- TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots): Big splash in limited snaps — efficient running, three catches and a 100-yard kickoff-return TD. Could push for meaningful early-season touches.
- Jaxson Dart (Giants): Very productive in preseason (372 yards, 3 TDs), accelerating the Giants' QB succession talk even though Russell Wilson opens as the starter.
- Frank Gore Jr. (Bills): Only player this preseason with 100+ rushing and 100+ receiving yards — boosted his odds to stick on a practice squad or grab interest if waived.
- Kansas City starters: Mahomes looked sharp in limited work, signaling the Chiefs' offense could be explosive when the wide receivers are healthy.
- Losers / concerns:
- Shedeur Sanders (Browns): After a strong debut he struggled in the finale (3 completions, 5 sacks). Cleveland plans to keep four QBs and Sanders looks like a developmental piece behind Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and Dillon Gabriel.
- Micah Parsons / Cowboys drama: Parsons' contract standoff and public back-and-forth with ownership remain a distraction for Dallas entering the season; a Netflix doc about the Jones/Cowboys era added to the headlines.
- Players cut who drew attention: Examples include QB Ben DiNucci (Falcons), who posted a lighthearted airport beer photo after his release — a pop-culture/social-media moment amid cuts.
Narratives to watch early in the season
- QB rooms and backup depth: Several teams reshaped backup plans; the Vikings added Carson Wentz late and other clubs shuffled QBs, meaning Week 1 depth charts could look different than expected.
- Patriots' depth test: New England's thin roster after cuts makes early injuries more impactful — could affect their divisional race in the AFC East if depth fails to hold up.
- Bengals defense: Retaining Hendrickson improves pass-rush outlook; if Cincinnati's defense bites, that affects AFC playoff seeding dynamics.
- Giants succession: Jaxson Dart's preseason surge creates storyline tension for New York: how soon will he be given a real shot to replace Russell Wilson?
Rules & clarifications fans might see in headlines
- Fighting/punching rule: Throwing a punch in-game is explicitly penalized — a 15-yard penalty and likely ejection. That explains why Shilo Sanders' punch led to an immediate ejection and significantly hurt his roster chances.
- Waiver basics recap: Young players (under four accrued seasons) are waived and can be claimed in order of waiver priority; older veterans become free agents immediately. If unclaimed, a player can sign to any practice squad, including returning to his original team.
Notable quotes from the last 24 hours
“In what could be the start of a stretch where the Pats dismiss almost all of their draft class from a year ago, they waived/injured 2024 fourth-round pick Layden Robinson.” — Chad Graff
“You can't throw punches in this league — that's inexcusable. They're going to get you every time. You've got to grow from that.” — Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles (about Shilo Sanders)
“Thanks everyone for the [love] and support. There's a lot to learn from this preseason, but I'm really thankful for the opportunity to be out there. Day by day, rep by rep, I'll keep learning and getting better.” — Shedeur Sanders
Why this all matters — the short version for casual fans
- Roster cuts shape Week 1: Which young players survive cuts, which veterans are traded or re-signed, and who lands on practice squads will determine which teams have depth for injuries and playoff pushes.
- Big-name signings affect contenders: Retaining Hendrickson and extending McLaurin immediately impacts Bengals/Commanders outlooks — those moves can swing competitive balance in the AFC and NFC.
- Preseason performances can change futures: Breakout rookies (Henderson, Dart, Gore Jr.) could earn significant roles or fantasy value; summer struggles (Shedeur) can slow a player's upward trajectory.
- Off-field moments trend into culture: Contract fights, Netflix documentaries, social-media reactions to cuts and lighthearted posts (airport beer) keep the league in mainstream conversation — they also influence perceptions and sometimes front-office decisions.
How to follow the final moves
- Watch for the cut deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday) and the waiver-claim window (claims due by noon ET Wednesday).
- Live trackers from major outlets will list claims, practice-squad additions and late trades — those updates show which young players get second chances.
- If you play fantasy, monitor practice-squad eligible players and recent breakout preseason performers — they can be late-round adds or waiver-wire targets soon after cuts.