NFL Picks — Week 18
CAR @ TB
Sat, Jan 3 1:30 PMPick
TB
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: Tampa Bay (home) — TB is the chosen team for Week 18.
- Quarterback status for both teams is listed as unknown; clarify starters closer to kickoff.
- No major injuries reported for either side in the provided notes.
- No spread, total or moneyline available and rest/travel show no edge, so market updates could change the outlook.
SEA @ SF
Sat, Jan 3 5:00 PMPick
SF
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: SF (Week 18, San Francisco is the home team).
- Both teams' QB statuses are listed as unknown — starter clarity will materially affect the game.
- No major injuries reported in the provided info, so injuries don’t appear to tilt the matchup.
- No betting line or weather data available; rest edge is even (0 days) and win probability is listed at 50%, so confidence is low.
NO @ ATL
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
ATL
Win Prob
61%
Spread: -4.5
O/U: 43.5
Notes
- Pick: Atlanta. DraftKings has ATL -4.5, so they need to win by 5+ to cover the spread.
- Game total 43.5 — a moderate scoring expectation; a controlled, lower‑pace game would make covering easier.
- Both QBs listed as unknown — starter announcements could shift the outlook, monitor pregame updates.
- No major injuries reported and no rest/travel edge; the projection gives ATL ~60.6% win probability, but confidence is low, so watch late news.
CLE @ CIN
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
CIN
Win Prob
73%
Spread: -9.5
O/U: 47.5
Notes
- CIN is the home favorite on DraftKings at -9.5 with an over/under of 47.5.
- Model projection gives Cincinnati about a 72–73% chance to win — pick: CIN.
- Quarterback statuses and listed injuries are unknown in the provided data, so roster risk is unclear.
- No rest/travel edge (0 days) and weather risk not reported; confidence level noted as 2, so consider the large spread before staking significant money.
GB @ MIN
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
MIN
Win Prob
79%
Spread: -12.5
O/U: 37.5
Notes
- Minnesota is a heavy favorite at home (spread -12.5), so the pick needs a 13+ point win to cover.
- Low total (37.5) points to a likely defense-leaning, lower-scoring game — expect fewer big offensive swings.
- Quarterback status is listed as unknown and there are no major injuries reported, so monitor late roster updates.
- Model gives MIN about a 79% win probability, but confidence is low (2), so check injury/QB news before betting the spread.
DAL @ NYG
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
DAL
Win Prob
57%
Spread: +3.0
O/U: 50.5
Notes
- Backing DAL — DraftKings has a 3-point spread, so Dallas is the favorite by a field-goal margin.
- Total 50.5 — market implies roughly 51 points, so expect a mid-range scoring game where a single score can flip the spread.
- No major injuries listed and both QBs are currently unknown in the provided data — monitor starter updates before kickoff.
- No rest advantage (0 days edge); travel and weather are listed as unknown, so situational factors are neutral or pending further info.
TEN @ JAX
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
JAX
Win Prob
79%
Spread: -12.5
O/U: 46.5
Notes
- Pick: JAX — model win probability about 79%.
- Market: JAX -12.5 (DraftKings); total 46.5, so books expect a double‑digit JAX win and moderate scoring.
- QB status for both teams is unknown and no major injuries are listed; starter updates could affect the line.
- No rest edge recorded; weather and travel information are not provided for this game.
IND @ HOU
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
HOU
Win Prob
73%
Spread: -9.5
O/U: 37.5
Notes
- Pick HOU; DraftKings has HOU -9.5 with a low total of 37.5, so oddsmakers expect a clear favorite in a potentially low-scoring game.
- Model win probability ~73% supports HOU, but confidence is low (2) — covering a large spread is not assured.
- Both QBs are listed as "unknown" and there are no major injuries reported, so starting-QB clarity will be important for bettors.
- No rest or travel edge and weather risk unknown, so expect few external advantages beyond roster/quarterback status.
NYJ @ BUF
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
BUF
Win Prob
77%
Spread: -11.5
O/U: 38.5
Notes
- Buffalo is an 11.5-point favorite on DraftKings; pick remains BUF.
- Low total at 38.5 suggests a likely lower-scoring game, which can limit big comebacks.
- Quarterback status for both teams is listed as unknown, increasing outcome uncertainty.
- No major injuries reported; model gives ~77% win probability but confidence is low (2), so size bets accordingly.
DET @ CHI
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
CHI
Win Prob
61%
Spread: -4.5
O/U: 51.5
Notes
- Pick: CHI (home). DraftKings spread shows CHI −4.5.
- Over/Under 51.5 (DraftKings).
- QB statuses unknown and no major injuries listed in the provided data — lineup uncertainty remains.
- Model win probability ~60.6% for CHI (confidence 1); rest edge 0 days and weather/travel unknown, so situational factors are neutral.
LAC @ DEN
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
DEN
Win Prob
82%
Spread: -14.0
O/U: 37.5
Notes
- DraftKings shows DEN as a 14-point favorite with a 37.5 total — market expects a decisive Denver win and a relatively low-scoring game.
- Model pick is DEN with about an 82% win probability; pick remains DEN.
- Both QBs are listed as unknown and no major injuries are recorded here — monitor late injury/QB reports before placing a bet.
- No rest edge (0 days) and travel/weather details are unavailable, so those factors could shift the line late.
KC @ LV
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
KC
Win Prob
61%
Spread: +4.5
O/U: 36.5
Notes
- Pick KC +4.5 — model/projected win probability ~60.6%, so take the Chiefs with the points.
- Low total (36.5) suggests a quieter, close game where the 4.5-point cushion matters.
- Both QBs listed as unknown and no major injuries reported for either side in the supplied context.
- No rest/travel edge (0 days) and weather risk is unknown, so no clear external advantages for LV.
ARI @ LAR
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
LAR
Win Prob
83%
Spread: -14.5
O/U: 48.5
Notes
- Pick: LAR — DraftKings has the Rams a heavy favorite at -14.5; model win probability ~83%.
- Total 48.5 is middling, so covering the big spread matters more than chasing a high-scoring game.
- Both QBs listed as unknown in the provided context — starter clarity could change game dynamics, monitor reports.
- No major injuries reported and no rest/travel edge; weather risk also listed as unknown in the matchup data.
MIA @ NE
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
NE
Win Prob
81%
Spread: -13.5
O/U: 45.5
Notes
- DraftKings lists NE as a 13.5-point favorite; pick: NE.
- Model gives NE about an 81% win probability; confidence rated 2.
- Starting QBs are listed as unknown, so late news could matter for the spread.
- No major injuries reported and no rest/travel edge; total is 45.5, a moderate scoring line.
WSH @ PHI
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
PHI
Win Prob
57%
Spread: -3.0
O/U: 38.5
Notes
- DraftKings has PHI favored by 3 at home; pick PHI to cover a tight spread.
- Low total (38.5) points to a likely low-scoring, defense-driven game—close margins favor the home favorite.
- Starting QB statuses and weather are listed as unknown; any late QB change or poor conditions would significantly shift the outlook.
- No major injuries reported and no rest edge (0 days), so roster stability and the implied ~57% win probability support taking PHI.
BAL @ PIT
Sun, Jan 4 5:20 PMPick
BAL
Win Prob
58%
Spread: +3.5
O/U: 41.5
Notes
- DraftKings shows a 3.5-point spread and a 41.5 over/under; this pick leans BAL against that line.
- Model-based win probability for BAL is about 58% per the pick data.
- Both teams' QB statuses are listed as unknown, so late-week starter news could swing this game.
- No major injuries reported, no rest/travel edge, and weather risk is unknown — few obvious external factors.
Today's Summaries
NFL Summary
Quick snapshot
- Roster cutdown day: Teams are trimming to a 53-man roster by the league deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday). That drove a flurry of cuts, trades and last-minute moves across the league.
- Big contract/retention moves: Bengals and Commanders locked in key veterans — Trey Hendrickson (one-year, ~$30M) and Terry McLaurin (3 years, up to $96M) — decisions that matter for those teams' defenses and offenses, respectively.
- Patriots continued cutting into their 2024 draft class (Layden Robinson waived/injured), highlighting roster thinness as their depth will be tested early in the season.
- Preseason takeaways: Several rookies impressed (TreVeyon Henderson, Jaxson Dart, Frank Gore Jr.) while others struggled (Shedeur Sanders), shaping who gets final roster spots and practice-squad attention.
Rosters, waivers and what those rules mean
- Cutdown basics: Teams must get from their preseason rosters (up to 90) to a regular-season 53 by the deadline — many players will be released or waived.
- Waivers vs. free agency: Players with fewer than four accrued NFL seasons are "waived" (subject to the waiver wire). If another team claims them, that team assumes the player's contract. Players with four or more accrued seasons are released and become free agents able to sign immediately.
- Claim timeline: Waiver claims must be submitted by noon ET the day after the cut deadline; if a player clears waivers, teams can sign him to their practice squad (practice squads can have up to 16 players).
The waiver order follows the 2025 NFL Draft order (Titans first, Browns second, Giants third, Patriots fourth, etc.), so those teams get first shot at waived youngsters.
- Practical note: If you claim a waived player you must add him to your 53 — so claiming teams often have to cut someone else to make room.
Most newsworthy moves and why they matter
- Patriots — Layden Robinson waived/injured: New England cut a 2024 fourth-round pick, underlining how thin the depth chart is beyond starters. Reports say Drake Maye may be the only 2024 draftee likely to stick — a big red flag for New England's recent draft returns and short-term competitiveness.
- Cincinnati Bengals — Trey Hendrickson reworked deal: Hendrickson agreed to a one-year arrangement that raises his 2025 pay to about $30M. That keeps the team's top pass-rusher in place and is a big boost for Cincinnati's defense entering the opener.
- Washington Commanders — Terry McLaurin extension: McLaurin's three-year, up-to-$96M deal stabilizes the Commanders' top receiving target and helps young QB Jayden Daniels retain a proven No. 1 weapon — a direct on-field boost to Washington's offense and playoff hopes.
- Las Vegas Raiders — Jakobi Meyers requests a trade; Amari Cooper returns: Meyers wants out over contract talks, but the Raiders plan to keep him. To add depth and experience they signed Amari Cooper to a one-year deal — a veteran move that affects Las Vegas' receiver hierarchy immediately.
- Buccaneers — Shilo Sanders waived after ejection: Sanders was ejected in the preseason for throwing a punch and was waived less than 24 hours later; the Bucs may pursue him for the practice squad if he clears waivers. This is a reminder teams weigh on-field behavior as well as talent.
Preseason winners, losers and notable performances
- Winners:
- TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots): Big splash in limited snaps — efficient running, three catches and a 100-yard kickoff-return TD. Could push for meaningful early-season touches.
- Jaxson Dart (Giants): Very productive in preseason (372 yards, 3 TDs), accelerating the Giants' QB succession talk even though Russell Wilson opens as the starter.
- Frank Gore Jr. (Bills): Only player this preseason with 100+ rushing and 100+ receiving yards — boosted his odds to stick on a practice squad or grab interest if waived.
- Kansas City starters: Mahomes looked sharp in limited work, signaling the Chiefs' offense could be explosive when the wide receivers are healthy.
- Losers / concerns:
- Shedeur Sanders (Browns): After a strong debut he struggled in the finale (3 completions, 5 sacks). Cleveland plans to keep four QBs and Sanders looks like a developmental piece behind Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and Dillon Gabriel.
- Micah Parsons / Cowboys drama: Parsons' contract standoff and public back-and-forth with ownership remain a distraction for Dallas entering the season; a Netflix doc about the Jones/Cowboys era added to the headlines.
- Players cut who drew attention: Examples include QB Ben DiNucci (Falcons), who posted a lighthearted airport beer photo after his release — a pop-culture/social-media moment amid cuts.
Narratives to watch early in the season
- QB rooms and backup depth: Several teams reshaped backup plans; the Vikings added Carson Wentz late and other clubs shuffled QBs, meaning Week 1 depth charts could look different than expected.
- Patriots' depth test: New England's thin roster after cuts makes early injuries more impactful — could affect their divisional race in the AFC East if depth fails to hold up.
- Bengals defense: Retaining Hendrickson improves pass-rush outlook; if Cincinnati's defense bites, that affects AFC playoff seeding dynamics.
- Giants succession: Jaxson Dart's preseason surge creates storyline tension for New York: how soon will he be given a real shot to replace Russell Wilson?
Rules & clarifications fans might see in headlines
- Fighting/punching rule: Throwing a punch in-game is explicitly penalized — a 15-yard penalty and likely ejection. That explains why Shilo Sanders' punch led to an immediate ejection and significantly hurt his roster chances.
- Waiver basics recap: Young players (under four accrued seasons) are waived and can be claimed in order of waiver priority; older veterans become free agents immediately. If unclaimed, a player can sign to any practice squad, including returning to his original team.
Notable quotes from the last 24 hours
“In what could be the start of a stretch where the Pats dismiss almost all of their draft class from a year ago, they waived/injured 2024 fourth-round pick Layden Robinson.” — Chad Graff
“You can't throw punches in this league — that's inexcusable. They're going to get you every time. You've got to grow from that.” — Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles (about Shilo Sanders)
“Thanks everyone for the [love] and support. There's a lot to learn from this preseason, but I'm really thankful for the opportunity to be out there. Day by day, rep by rep, I'll keep learning and getting better.” — Shedeur Sanders
Why this all matters — the short version for casual fans
- Roster cuts shape Week 1: Which young players survive cuts, which veterans are traded or re-signed, and who lands on practice squads will determine which teams have depth for injuries and playoff pushes.
- Big-name signings affect contenders: Retaining Hendrickson and extending McLaurin immediately impacts Bengals/Commanders outlooks — those moves can swing competitive balance in the AFC and NFC.
- Preseason performances can change futures: Breakout rookies (Henderson, Dart, Gore Jr.) could earn significant roles or fantasy value; summer struggles (Shedeur) can slow a player's upward trajectory.
- Off-field moments trend into culture: Contract fights, Netflix documentaries, social-media reactions to cuts and lighthearted posts (airport beer) keep the league in mainstream conversation — they also influence perceptions and sometimes front-office decisions.
How to follow the final moves
- Watch for the cut deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday) and the waiver-claim window (claims due by noon ET Wednesday).
- Live trackers from major outlets will list claims, practice-squad additions and late trades — those updates show which young players get second chances.
- If you play fantasy, monitor practice-squad eligible players and recent breakout preseason performers — they can be late-round adds or waiver-wire targets soon after cuts.