NFL Picks — Week 16

LAR @ SEA
Thu, Dec 18 5:15 PM
Pick
SEA
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: Seattle (home) over Los Angeles in Week 16.
  • No spread, total, or moneyline currently available for this game.
  • Quarterback statuses are listed as unknown and there are no major injuries noted.
  • Model shows a 50% win probability for SEA with 0 confidence; rest/travel edge is neutral.
PHI @ WSH
Sat, Dec 20 2:00 PM
Pick
WAS
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: Washington (home) — Week 16.
  • QB status and major injuries are listed as unknown for both teams, so health info is unclear.
  • No spread, total, or moneyline available; model win probability is 50% with confidence = 0.
  • Rest edge is even (0 days); weather and travel notes not reported, so home field is the tiebreaker.
GB @ CHI
Sat, Dec 20 5:20 PM
Pick
CHI
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: CHI (home) vs GB — Week 16.
  • No spread, total or moneyline available, so no market edge is shown.
  • Home and away quarterback statuses are unknown; no major injuries listed for either team.
  • Rest edge: 0 days; travel and weather risk are listed as unknown.
  • Model shows a 50% win probability and confidence marked as 0, so this is a low‑confidence pick.
CIN @ MIA
Sun, Dec 21 10:00 AM
Pick
CIN
Conf: Med
Win Prob 61%
Spread: +4.5 O/U: 48.5
Notes
  • CIN +4.5 (DraftKings) provides a 4.5‑point cushion in a market that views this as a one‑score game.
  • O/U 48.5 is middling — with both QBs listed as unknown, total scoring could swing with late news.
  • No major injuries reported and no rest/travel edge, so the matchup looks relatively even on paper.
  • Model pick favors Cincinnati (~61% win probability), making the points and upset upside the practical play.
BUF @ CLE
Sun, Dec 21 10:00 AM
Pick
BUF
Conf: High
Win Prob 74%
Spread: +10.0 O/U: 40.5
Notes
  • Pick: BUF — DraftKings listing shows a 10-point spread and a 40.5 over/under for CLE vs BUF.
  • Quarterback statuses are not yet announced and no major injuries are listed for either side; watch pregame updates.
  • Model gives Buffalo about a 74% chance to win, which drives this pick.
  • No rest/travel edge noted and weather risk is unknown; consider late-breaking injury or weather news before wagering.
LAC @ DAL
Sun, Dec 21 10:00 AM
Pick
DAL
Conf: Low
Win Prob 53%
Spread: -1.5 O/U: 50.5
Notes
  • Dallas is a 1.5-point favorite on DraftKings — expected to be a one-score game.
  • Model pick gives DAL about a 53% win probability, a narrow edge for Dallas.
  • No listed key injuries; both quarterbacks' statuses are unknown in the available info.
  • Total is 50.5 (moderate scoring expectation); rest is even (0‑day edge) and weather status is not provided.
KC @ TEN
Sun, Dec 21 10:00 AM
Pick
KC
Conf: Low
Win Prob 57%
Spread: +3.0 O/U: 37.5
Notes
  • DraftKings shows a 3-point spread and a 37.5 total — market expects a close, lower-scoring game.
  • Model/projected win probability for KC is about 57% — pick favors the Chiefs on balance.
  • Both QBs currently listed as "unknown"; monitor starter news before betting as it’s pivotal.
  • No major injuries reported and no rest/travel edge noted; low total suggests leaning conservative on game props.
NYJ @ NO
Sun, Dec 21 10:00 AM
Pick
NO
Conf: Med
Win Prob 65%
Spread: -6.5 O/U: 39.5
Notes
  • New Orleans is a 6.5-point home favorite on DraftKings; the total is a low 39.5, suggesting a lower-scoring game.
  • Model-derived win probability for NO is about 65% — pick: New Orleans.
  • Both teams list QB status as unknown; watch starter news before betting as that can materially affect the line.
  • No major injuries listed and no rest/travel edge; home team status provides a modest advantage toward covering the spread.
MIN @ NYG
Sun, Dec 21 10:00 AM
Pick
MIN
Conf: Low
Win Prob 56%
Spread: +2.5 O/U: 41.5
Notes
  • Pick: Minnesota (MIN) at +2.5 on DraftKings — backing the Vikings on the road vs NYG.
  • Total 41.5 — a modest scoring line; with both QBs listed as unknown, scoring projection carries extra uncertainty.
  • No major injuries reported for either side; rest is even (0-day edge) and weather/travel aren’t flagged.
  • Model win probability for MIN ~55.7% — taking +2.5 looks like a small-value play if that edge holds.
TB @ CAR
Sun, Dec 21 10:00 AM
Pick
TB
Conf: Low
Win Prob 57%
Spread: +3.0 O/U: 44.5
Notes
  • Pick: TB (listed as +3 on DraftKings); pick data gives roughly a 57% win probability.
  • Game total is 44.5 — market expects a moderate-scoring game, so plan accordingly.
  • Both teams' QB statuses are unknown right now; check starters before you lock the wager.
  • No major injuries listed and no rest/travel edge (0 days); weather not reported, so fewer known swing factors.
JAX @ DEN
Sun, Dec 21 1:05 PM
Pick
DEN
Conf: Low
Win Prob 58%
Spread: -3.5 O/U: 46.5
Notes
  • Pick DEN vs JAX (spread DEN -3.5); model win probability ~58.1% in favor of Denver.
  • DraftKings total 46.5 — a mid-range number, so game could be decided by turnovers/defense rather than shootout pace.
  • Both teams' QB statuses are listed as unknown; any confirmed starter could materially affect the line—monitor updates.
  • No major injuries reported and no rest advantage (0 days); weather and travel details are not available—check before placing a bet.
ATL @ ARI
Sun, Dec 21 1:05 PM
Pick
ATL
Conf: Low
Win Prob 57%
Spread: +3.0 O/U: 48.5
Notes
  • Pick: Atlanta (ATL) — DraftKings spread +3.0 vs Arizona, total 48.5.
  • Model win probability ~57% for ATL; pick is to cover the 3-point line.
  • Home and away QB statuses are listed as unknown; no major injuries reported in the provided data.
  • No rest or travel edge noted and weather risk is unknown, so external factors look neutral.
PIT @ DET
Sun, Dec 21 1:25 PM
Pick
DET
Conf: Med
Win Prob 68%
Spread: -7.5 O/U: 52.5
Notes
  • Pick: Detroit (DET) at home, listed at -7.5 on DraftKings.
  • Model win probability ~68%, so the pick assumes Detroit covers the spread.
  • Game total 52.5 — moderate scoring projection; QB statuses are currently unknown, which affects scoring outlook.
  • No major injuries listed and no rest/travel edge, so monitor any late QB or injury updates before placing a bet.
LV @ HOU
Sun, Dec 21 1:25 PM
Pick
HOU
Conf: High
Win Prob 83%
Spread: -14.5 O/U: 39.5
Notes
  • Backing HOU on the road favorite line, DraftKings spread HOU -14.5 — market expects a sizable HOU win.
  • Low total (39.5) suggests this could be a controlled, lower-scoring game rather than a shootout.
  • No listed major injuries for either side in the provided notes; monitor final injury reports.
  • Both QBs are listed as unknown here — confirm starters before locking a bet; model gives HOU ~82.8% win probability but confidence is low (2).
NE @ BAL
Sun, Dec 21 5:20 PM
Pick
BAL
Conf: Low
Win Prob 57%
Spread: -3.0 O/U: 48.5
Notes
  • Baltimore is a 3-point favorite at DraftKings (Spread -3); pick: BAL.
  • Odds/model imply roughly a 57% chance for Baltimore to win—spread is fairly narrow.
  • No major injuries listed in the provided info; both QBs are currently listed as unknown—watch for starter updates.
  • Over/Under 48.5 points suggests a moderate-scoring game; rest appears even and no weather/travel notes provided.
SF @ IND
Mon, Dec 22 5:15 PM
Pick
SF
Conf: Med
Win Prob 63%
Spread: +5.5 O/U: 46.5
Notes
  • Pick: San Francisco. DraftKings shows SF as a +5.5 road underdog with the total at 46.5.
  • Model/line-support: SF has an implied win probability around 63% per the pick data.
  • Both teams' QB statuses are listed as "unknown" and there are no major injuries reported — verify starters before locking bets.
  • No rest/travel edge and no weather flag in the data, so the spread and QB clarity are the key factors to watch.

Today's Summaries

NFL Summary

NFL Day-in-Review — Aug 25, 2025

Quick snapshot

  • Roster cutdown day: Teams are trimming to a 53-man roster by the league deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday). That drove a flurry of cuts, trades and last-minute moves across the league.
  • Big contract/retention moves: Bengals and Commanders locked in key veterans — Trey Hendrickson (one-year, ~$30M) and Terry McLaurin (3 years, up to $96M) — decisions that matter for those teams' defenses and offenses, respectively.
  • Patriots continued cutting into their 2024 draft class (Layden Robinson waived/injured), highlighting roster thinness as their depth will be tested early in the season.
  • Preseason takeaways: Several rookies impressed (TreVeyon Henderson, Jaxson Dart, Frank Gore Jr.) while others struggled (Shedeur Sanders), shaping who gets final roster spots and practice-squad attention.

Rosters, waivers and what those rules mean

  • Cutdown basics: Teams must get from their preseason rosters (up to 90) to a regular-season 53 by the deadline — many players will be released or waived.
  • Waivers vs. free agency: Players with fewer than four accrued NFL seasons are "waived" (subject to the waiver wire). If another team claims them, that team assumes the player's contract. Players with four or more accrued seasons are released and become free agents able to sign immediately.
  • Claim timeline: Waiver claims must be submitted by noon ET the day after the cut deadline; if a player clears waivers, teams can sign him to their practice squad (practice squads can have up to 16 players).
  • The waiver order follows the 2025 NFL Draft order (Titans first, Browns second, Giants third, Patriots fourth, etc.), so those teams get first shot at waived youngsters.
  • Practical note: If you claim a waived player you must add him to your 53 — so claiming teams often have to cut someone else to make room.

Most newsworthy moves and why they matter

  • Patriots — Layden Robinson waived/injured: New England cut a 2024 fourth-round pick, underlining how thin the depth chart is beyond starters. Reports say Drake Maye may be the only 2024 draftee likely to stick — a big red flag for New England's recent draft returns and short-term competitiveness.
  • Cincinnati Bengals — Trey Hendrickson reworked deal: Hendrickson agreed to a one-year arrangement that raises his 2025 pay to about $30M. That keeps the team's top pass-rusher in place and is a big boost for Cincinnati's defense entering the opener.
  • Washington Commanders — Terry McLaurin extension: McLaurin's three-year, up-to-$96M deal stabilizes the Commanders' top receiving target and helps young QB Jayden Daniels retain a proven No. 1 weapon — a direct on-field boost to Washington's offense and playoff hopes.
  • Las Vegas Raiders — Jakobi Meyers requests a trade; Amari Cooper returns: Meyers wants out over contract talks, but the Raiders plan to keep him. To add depth and experience they signed Amari Cooper to a one-year deal — a veteran move that affects Las Vegas' receiver hierarchy immediately.
  • Buccaneers — Shilo Sanders waived after ejection: Sanders was ejected in the preseason for throwing a punch and was waived less than 24 hours later; the Bucs may pursue him for the practice squad if he clears waivers. This is a reminder teams weigh on-field behavior as well as talent.

Preseason winners, losers and notable performances

  • Winners:
    • TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots): Big splash in limited snaps — efficient running, three catches and a 100-yard kickoff-return TD. Could push for meaningful early-season touches.
    • Jaxson Dart (Giants): Very productive in preseason (372 yards, 3 TDs), accelerating the Giants' QB succession talk even though Russell Wilson opens as the starter.
    • Frank Gore Jr. (Bills): Only player this preseason with 100+ rushing and 100+ receiving yards — boosted his odds to stick on a practice squad or grab interest if waived.
    • Kansas City starters: Mahomes looked sharp in limited work, signaling the Chiefs' offense could be explosive when the wide receivers are healthy.
  • Losers / concerns:
    • Shedeur Sanders (Browns): After a strong debut he struggled in the finale (3 completions, 5 sacks). Cleveland plans to keep four QBs and Sanders looks like a developmental piece behind Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and Dillon Gabriel.
    • Micah Parsons / Cowboys drama: Parsons' contract standoff and public back-and-forth with ownership remain a distraction for Dallas entering the season; a Netflix doc about the Jones/Cowboys era added to the headlines.
    • Players cut who drew attention: Examples include QB Ben DiNucci (Falcons), who posted a lighthearted airport beer photo after his release — a pop-culture/social-media moment amid cuts.

Narratives to watch early in the season

  • QB rooms and backup depth: Several teams reshaped backup plans; the Vikings added Carson Wentz late and other clubs shuffled QBs, meaning Week 1 depth charts could look different than expected.
  • Patriots' depth test: New England's thin roster after cuts makes early injuries more impactful — could affect their divisional race in the AFC East if depth fails to hold up.
  • Bengals defense: Retaining Hendrickson improves pass-rush outlook; if Cincinnati's defense bites, that affects AFC playoff seeding dynamics.
  • Giants succession: Jaxson Dart's preseason surge creates storyline tension for New York: how soon will he be given a real shot to replace Russell Wilson?

Rules & clarifications fans might see in headlines

  • Fighting/punching rule: Throwing a punch in-game is explicitly penalized — a 15-yard penalty and likely ejection. That explains why Shilo Sanders' punch led to an immediate ejection and significantly hurt his roster chances.
  • Waiver basics recap: Young players (under four accrued seasons) are waived and can be claimed in order of waiver priority; older veterans become free agents immediately. If unclaimed, a player can sign to any practice squad, including returning to his original team.

Notable quotes from the last 24 hours

“In what could be the start of a stretch where the Pats dismiss almost all of their draft class from a year ago, they waived/injured 2024 fourth-round pick Layden Robinson.” — Chad Graff
“You can't throw punches in this league — that's inexcusable. They're going to get you every time. You've got to grow from that.” — Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles (about Shilo Sanders)
“Thanks everyone for the [love] and support. There's a lot to learn from this preseason, but I'm really thankful for the opportunity to be out there. Day by day, rep by rep, I'll keep learning and getting better.” — Shedeur Sanders

Why this all matters — the short version for casual fans

  • Roster cuts shape Week 1: Which young players survive cuts, which veterans are traded or re-signed, and who lands on practice squads will determine which teams have depth for injuries and playoff pushes.
  • Big-name signings affect contenders: Retaining Hendrickson and extending McLaurin immediately impacts Bengals/Commanders outlooks — those moves can swing competitive balance in the AFC and NFC.
  • Preseason performances can change futures: Breakout rookies (Henderson, Dart, Gore Jr.) could earn significant roles or fantasy value; summer struggles (Shedeur) can slow a player's upward trajectory.
  • Off-field moments trend into culture: Contract fights, Netflix documentaries, social-media reactions to cuts and lighthearted posts (airport beer) keep the league in mainstream conversation — they also influence perceptions and sometimes front-office decisions.

How to follow the final moves

  • Watch for the cut deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday) and the waiver-claim window (claims due by noon ET Wednesday).
  • Live trackers from major outlets will list claims, practice-squad additions and late trades — those updates show which young players get second chances.
  • If you play fantasy, monitor practice-squad eligible players and recent breakout preseason performers — they can be late-round adds or waiver-wire targets soon after cuts.
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