NFL Picks — Week 16
LAR @ SEA
Thu, Dec 18 5:15 PMPick
LAR
Win Prob
53%
Spread: +1.5
O/U: 43.5
Notes
- Take LAR at +1.5 — the projection gives Los Angeles about a 53% win probability, so a small expected edge on the road.
- DraftKings total is 43.5, suggesting a middle-scoring game; this pick isn’t relying on a high-scoring shootout.
- Both QBs are listed as unknown and there are no major injuries reported for either side, so check late injury/QB updates before kickoff.
- No rest or travel advantage noted and no weather risk reported, so the spread reflects a close matchup rather than external factors.
PHI @ WSH
Sat, Dec 20 2:00 PMPick
PHI
Win Prob
65%
Spread: +6.5
O/U: 44.5
Notes
- Pick: PHI. DraftKings shows a 6.5-point spread and a 44.5 total — PHI is essentially about a one‑touchdown favorite.
- Model gives PHI roughly a 65% win probability based on available inputs.
- No listed major injuries in the provided context; starting‑QB status is unknown — check final injury/QB reports before betting.
- No rest/travel edge and weather risk is unknown, so late scratches or conditions could swing the line.
GB @ CHI
Sat, Dec 20 5:20 PMPick
GB
Win Prob
53%
Spread: +1.5
O/U: 46.5
Notes
- Pick: Green Bay — market implies a one-score game with a 1.5-point spread, so this is a small-edge choice.
- Total 46.5 suggests a moderate-scoring matchup rather than a shootout or defensive slog.
- Both teams' QB statuses and major injuries are not listed here, so starter/injury uncertainty increases variance.
- No rest/travel edge noted and weather risk unknown; the pick reflects a modest win probability (~53%), i.e., low-margin confidence.
CIN @ MIA
Sun, Dec 21 10:00 AMPick
CIN
Win Prob
63%
Spread: +5.5
O/U: 47.5
Notes
- Pick: CIN (+5.5 on DraftKings) — Bengals on the road vs. Miami.
- Projection: model here gives Cincinnati about a 63% win probability for this matchup.
- Key uncertainty: both QBs are listed as unknown right now — starter news could shift the market.
- Other factors: no major injuries reported, no rest edge, and the 47.5 total implies a mid-range scoring game; the spread is the main angle to exploit.
BUF @ CLE
Sun, Dec 21 10:00 AMPick
BUF
Win Prob
74%
Spread: +10.0
O/U: 42.5
Notes
- Pick: BUF — model win probability ~73.6%.
- DraftKings spread: 10 points (Buffalo the clear favorite on the board).
- Total: 42.5 — a modest scoring line that could matter for U/O plays.
- Starting QBs and major injuries are listed as unknown; confirm both before placing bets.
- No rest/travel edge recorded; monitor weather closer to kickoff.
LAC @ DAL
Sun, Dec 21 10:00 AMPick
DAL
Win Prob
56%
Spread: -2.5
O/U: 49.5
Notes
- Take DAL to cover the DraftKings spread (DAL -2.5); total is 49.5.
- Projection gives Dallas about a 56% win probability, so a modest favorite.
- Neither team's QB status is listed — monitor late-week injury/QB news as it could change the edge.
- No major injuries noted and no rest advantage, so expect a fairly even, full-strength matchup.
KC @ TEN
Sun, Dec 21 10:00 AMPick
KC
Win Prob
58%
Spread: +3.5
O/U: 37.5
Notes
- Take Kansas City +3.5 at Tennessee — pick is KC with the points.
- DraftKings total 37.5 is low, suggesting a potentially lower-scoring, close game where 3.5 points matter.
- Both QBs listed as unknown and there are no major injuries reported, so expect some roster/availability uncertainty.
- Rest/travel shows no edge (0 days), and the pick data gives KC about a 58% win probability despite being the road underdog.
NYJ @ NO
Sun, Dec 21 10:00 AMPick
NO
Win Prob
61%
Spread: -4.5
O/U: 40.5
Notes
- DraftKings has NO favored by 4.5 points; pick is NO to cover (model win probability ~60.6%).
- Game total 40.5 is relatively low — projection leans toward a single-score, lower-scoring affair.
- Quarterback statuses are listed as unknown for both teams, which adds offensive uncertainty.
- No major injuries or rest/travel edge noted, so the spread mainly reflects home-field and matchup assumptions.
MIN @ NYG
Sun, Dec 21 10:00 AMPick
MIN
Win Prob
57%
Spread: +3.0
O/U: 43.5
Notes
- Take Minnesota (+3) at New York — DraftKings shows the spread +3.0 with a 43.5 game total.
- Model win probability favors MIN (~57%), so the three-point cushion is meaningful.
- Both teams’ QB statuses are listed as unknown, so starter uncertainty makes the points more valuable.
- No major injuries and no rest/travel edge reported; this reads like a straight spread play rather than a totals play.
TB @ CAR
Sun, Dec 21 10:00 AMPick
TB
Win Prob
57%
Spread: +3.0
O/U: 45.5
Notes
- DraftKings shows a close game (spread 3.0) with an O/U of 45.5 — taking TB in what's essentially a one-possession matchup.
- Both teams have QBs listed as unknown in the provided info, so starter news could swing the edge.
- No major injuries reported for either side here, so available personnel appears even on paper.
- No travel/rest or weather advantage noted; the model-backed pick gives TB roughly a 57% chance to win.
JAX @ DEN
Sun, Dec 21 1:05 PMPick
DEN
Win Prob
57%
Spread: -3.0
O/U: 46.5
Notes
- Denver is a 3-point favorite at home on DraftKings (DEN -3); pick DEN.
- Odds/model imply about a 57% chance for Denver to win, consistent with the pick.
- Neither team's QB status or major injuries are reported yet — monitor pregame updates.
- Total is 46.5 and rest/travel show no clear edge; expect a one-score, moderate-scoring game.
ATL @ ARI
Sun, Dec 21 1:05 PMPick
ATL
Win Prob
56%
Spread: +2.5
O/U: 47.5
Notes
- DraftKings spread: ATL +2.5 — pick ATL to cover the small road number.
- Total 47.5 — market expects a middling-scoring game, not a clear shootout.
- Both QBs listed as "unknown" — monitor late QB news, since status changes would alter the outlook.
- No major injuries reported and rest is even (0-day edge), so no clear personnel or fatigue advantage.
- Model/analytics favor ATL (~56% win probability), which supports the pick.
PIT @ DET
Sun, Dec 21 1:25 PMPick
DET
Win Prob
67%
Spread: -7.0
O/U: 51.5
Notes
- Pick: Detroit — 7-point home favorite on DraftKings; this pick shows about a 67% win probability.
- Total 51.5, so a middling expectation for scoring; final QB statuses are unknown and could swing that projection.
- No major injuries listed for either side and rest edge is neutral (0 days), so availability looks stable.
- Weather and travel notes are unknown; monitor late-week injury reports and QB confirmations before placing same-day wagers.
LV @ HOU
Sun, Dec 21 1:25 PMPick
HOU
Win Prob
83%
Spread: -14.5
O/U: 37.5
Notes
- Week 16 at home for HOU; betting line shows HOU -14.5, so market expects a clear Houston win.
- Model win probability ~83% for HOU, pick remains HOU despite moderate model confidence.
- DraftKings total 37.5 is low, implying a likely controlled, lower-scoring game rather than a shootout.
- Key QB statuses and injuries are listed as unknown/none now — monitor final QB and injury reports before lock.
NE @ BAL
Sun, Dec 21 5:20 PMPick
BAL
Win Prob
57%
Spread: -3.0
O/U: 48.5
Notes
- Pick: BAL — listed at -3 on DraftKings, so Baltimore is a narrow favorite.
- Model win probability ~57%, implying a modest edge but likely a close game.
- Over/Under 48.5 suggests moderate scoring; game could go either way on a few key drives.
- QB statuses are listed as unknown and there are no major injuries noted; monitor late-week reports.
- No rest/travel edge (0 days), so situational factors appear neutral for both teams.
SF @ IND
Mon, Dec 22 5:15 PMPick
SF
Win Prob
64%
Spread: +6.0
O/U: 46.5
Notes
- Pick SF (away) — DraftKings shows SF +6 with an O/U of 46.5; model win probability ~64%.
- No confirmed QB statuses or major injuries in the provided context — monitor late-week updates before betting.
- Neutral rest/travel edge (0 days). Projected as a close, sub-47-point game, so taking SF on the points for value.
Today's Summaries
NFL Summary
Quick snapshot
- Roster cutdown day: Teams are trimming to a 53-man roster by the league deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday). That drove a flurry of cuts, trades and last-minute moves across the league.
- Big contract/retention moves: Bengals and Commanders locked in key veterans — Trey Hendrickson (one-year, ~$30M) and Terry McLaurin (3 years, up to $96M) — decisions that matter for those teams' defenses and offenses, respectively.
- Patriots continued cutting into their 2024 draft class (Layden Robinson waived/injured), highlighting roster thinness as their depth will be tested early in the season.
- Preseason takeaways: Several rookies impressed (TreVeyon Henderson, Jaxson Dart, Frank Gore Jr.) while others struggled (Shedeur Sanders), shaping who gets final roster spots and practice-squad attention.
Rosters, waivers and what those rules mean
- Cutdown basics: Teams must get from their preseason rosters (up to 90) to a regular-season 53 by the deadline — many players will be released or waived.
- Waivers vs. free agency: Players with fewer than four accrued NFL seasons are "waived" (subject to the waiver wire). If another team claims them, that team assumes the player's contract. Players with four or more accrued seasons are released and become free agents able to sign immediately.
- Claim timeline: Waiver claims must be submitted by noon ET the day after the cut deadline; if a player clears waivers, teams can sign him to their practice squad (practice squads can have up to 16 players).
The waiver order follows the 2025 NFL Draft order (Titans first, Browns second, Giants third, Patriots fourth, etc.), so those teams get first shot at waived youngsters.
- Practical note: If you claim a waived player you must add him to your 53 — so claiming teams often have to cut someone else to make room.
Most newsworthy moves and why they matter
- Patriots — Layden Robinson waived/injured: New England cut a 2024 fourth-round pick, underlining how thin the depth chart is beyond starters. Reports say Drake Maye may be the only 2024 draftee likely to stick — a big red flag for New England's recent draft returns and short-term competitiveness.
- Cincinnati Bengals — Trey Hendrickson reworked deal: Hendrickson agreed to a one-year arrangement that raises his 2025 pay to about $30M. That keeps the team's top pass-rusher in place and is a big boost for Cincinnati's defense entering the opener.
- Washington Commanders — Terry McLaurin extension: McLaurin's three-year, up-to-$96M deal stabilizes the Commanders' top receiving target and helps young QB Jayden Daniels retain a proven No. 1 weapon — a direct on-field boost to Washington's offense and playoff hopes.
- Las Vegas Raiders — Jakobi Meyers requests a trade; Amari Cooper returns: Meyers wants out over contract talks, but the Raiders plan to keep him. To add depth and experience they signed Amari Cooper to a one-year deal — a veteran move that affects Las Vegas' receiver hierarchy immediately.
- Buccaneers — Shilo Sanders waived after ejection: Sanders was ejected in the preseason for throwing a punch and was waived less than 24 hours later; the Bucs may pursue him for the practice squad if he clears waivers. This is a reminder teams weigh on-field behavior as well as talent.
Preseason winners, losers and notable performances
- Winners:
- TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots): Big splash in limited snaps — efficient running, three catches and a 100-yard kickoff-return TD. Could push for meaningful early-season touches.
- Jaxson Dart (Giants): Very productive in preseason (372 yards, 3 TDs), accelerating the Giants' QB succession talk even though Russell Wilson opens as the starter.
- Frank Gore Jr. (Bills): Only player this preseason with 100+ rushing and 100+ receiving yards — boosted his odds to stick on a practice squad or grab interest if waived.
- Kansas City starters: Mahomes looked sharp in limited work, signaling the Chiefs' offense could be explosive when the wide receivers are healthy.
- Losers / concerns:
- Shedeur Sanders (Browns): After a strong debut he struggled in the finale (3 completions, 5 sacks). Cleveland plans to keep four QBs and Sanders looks like a developmental piece behind Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and Dillon Gabriel.
- Micah Parsons / Cowboys drama: Parsons' contract standoff and public back-and-forth with ownership remain a distraction for Dallas entering the season; a Netflix doc about the Jones/Cowboys era added to the headlines.
- Players cut who drew attention: Examples include QB Ben DiNucci (Falcons), who posted a lighthearted airport beer photo after his release — a pop-culture/social-media moment amid cuts.
Narratives to watch early in the season
- QB rooms and backup depth: Several teams reshaped backup plans; the Vikings added Carson Wentz late and other clubs shuffled QBs, meaning Week 1 depth charts could look different than expected.
- Patriots' depth test: New England's thin roster after cuts makes early injuries more impactful — could affect their divisional race in the AFC East if depth fails to hold up.
- Bengals defense: Retaining Hendrickson improves pass-rush outlook; if Cincinnati's defense bites, that affects AFC playoff seeding dynamics.
- Giants succession: Jaxson Dart's preseason surge creates storyline tension for New York: how soon will he be given a real shot to replace Russell Wilson?
Rules & clarifications fans might see in headlines
- Fighting/punching rule: Throwing a punch in-game is explicitly penalized — a 15-yard penalty and likely ejection. That explains why Shilo Sanders' punch led to an immediate ejection and significantly hurt his roster chances.
- Waiver basics recap: Young players (under four accrued seasons) are waived and can be claimed in order of waiver priority; older veterans become free agents immediately. If unclaimed, a player can sign to any practice squad, including returning to his original team.
Notable quotes from the last 24 hours
“In what could be the start of a stretch where the Pats dismiss almost all of their draft class from a year ago, they waived/injured 2024 fourth-round pick Layden Robinson.” — Chad Graff
“You can't throw punches in this league — that's inexcusable. They're going to get you every time. You've got to grow from that.” — Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles (about Shilo Sanders)
“Thanks everyone for the [love] and support. There's a lot to learn from this preseason, but I'm really thankful for the opportunity to be out there. Day by day, rep by rep, I'll keep learning and getting better.” — Shedeur Sanders
Why this all matters — the short version for casual fans
- Roster cuts shape Week 1: Which young players survive cuts, which veterans are traded or re-signed, and who lands on practice squads will determine which teams have depth for injuries and playoff pushes.
- Big-name signings affect contenders: Retaining Hendrickson and extending McLaurin immediately impacts Bengals/Commanders outlooks — those moves can swing competitive balance in the AFC and NFC.
- Preseason performances can change futures: Breakout rookies (Henderson, Dart, Gore Jr.) could earn significant roles or fantasy value; summer struggles (Shedeur) can slow a player's upward trajectory.
- Off-field moments trend into culture: Contract fights, Netflix documentaries, social-media reactions to cuts and lighthearted posts (airport beer) keep the league in mainstream conversation — they also influence perceptions and sometimes front-office decisions.
How to follow the final moves
- Watch for the cut deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday) and the waiver-claim window (claims due by noon ET Wednesday).
- Live trackers from major outlets will list claims, practice-squad additions and late trades — those updates show which young players get second chances.
- If you play fantasy, monitor practice-squad eligible players and recent breakout preseason performers — they can be late-round adds or waiver-wire targets soon after cuts.