NFL Picks — Week 14

DAL @ DET
Thu, Dec 4 5:15 PM
Pick
DET
Conf: Low
Win Prob 57%
Spread: -3.0 O/U: 54.5
Notes
  • Pick: Detroit (DET) — model win probability ~57%.
  • Consensus spread is 3 points and the total is 54.5.
  • Both teams have QB status listed as "unknown" — quarterback clarity could change the outlook.
  • No major injuries reported and no rest advantage (0 days), so late roster/QB news will matter most.
SEA @ ATL
Sun, Dec 7 10:00 AM
Pick
SEA
Conf: Med
Win Prob 67%
Spread: +7.0 O/U: 44.5
Notes
  • Pick: SEA — listed at +7 on DraftKings, so Seattle has a one-score cushion playing in Atlanta.
  • Model/metric gives Seattle roughly a 66.6% win probability.
  • Total 44.5, a mid-range number — game could be decided by a single score or turnovers.
  • Neither team has listed key injuries here and QB statuses/rest are unknown, so outcome is sensitive to starter and injury updates.
TEN @ CLE
Sun, Dec 7 10:00 AM
Pick
CLE
Conf: Med
Win Prob 61%
Spread: -4.5 O/U: 33.5
Notes
  • Pick CLE (model win probability ~61%); DraftKings has CLE -4.5, so they must win by 5+ to cover.
  • Low total 33.5 implies a likely defensive/field-position game — scoring may be limited.
  • Both QBs listed as unknown; starter news could materially change the outlook and the spread.
  • No listed major injuries and no rest advantage for either team, so CLE’s home status is a primary edge.
WSH @ MIN
Sun, Dec 7 10:00 AM
Pick
MIN
Conf: Low
Win Prob 53%
Spread: -1.5 O/U: 41.5
Notes
  • Pick MIN — Minnesota is a narrow favorite (DK spread -1.5) and the model gives them about a 53% win probability, so a small edge for the Vikings.
  • Spread is tight, so expect a single-score game; consider the small margin when sizing bets.
  • Total 41.5 is relatively low; game could lean toward a controlled/defensive pace, so the under is plausible.
  • QB statuses and weather are currently unknown — check late-week reports for any changes that could flip the matchup.
  • No major injuries listed and no rest/travel edge, so projected starters should remain in place barring late news.
MIA @ NYJ
Sun, Dec 7 10:00 AM
Pick
MIA
Conf: Low
Win Prob 56%
Spread: +2.5 O/U: 40.5
Notes
  • Odds — Dolphins +2.5, Total 40.5 (DraftKings): a one-score spread and low O/U point to a close, lower-scoring game.
  • Both teams' QB statuses are listed as unknown, which increases game-to-game variance on offense.
  • No major injuries reported for either side, so health appears neutral between teams.
  • No clear rest or travel edge; model win probability favors MIA (~56%), so pick Dolphins as the slight road underdog.
NO @ TB
Sun, Dec 7 10:00 AM
Pick
TB
Conf: High
Win Prob 70%
Spread: -8.5 O/U: 42.5
Notes
  • Pick: TB — Buccaneers are 8.5‑point favorites on DraftKings and the model gives them ~70% win probability.
  • Total is 42.5, which implies a modest scoring game; the large spread suggests TB is expected to control pace/possession.
  • Home/away QB status and major injuries are listed as unknown — check final injury/QB reports before betting.
  • Rest/travel and weather are unknown; confidence is low (2), so treat this as a lean rather than a lock.
IND @ JAX
Sun, Dec 7 10:00 AM
Pick
IND
Conf: Low
Win Prob 53%
Spread: +1.5 O/U: 47.5
Notes
  • Pick: IND (+1.5 at DraftKings) — small road underdog; provided projection gives roughly a 53% chance to win.
  • Total 47.5 suggests a close, moderate-scoring game where a single stop or turnover could decide the outcome.
  • Both QBs listed as unknown in the game facts, so monitor gameday reports — QB confirmations could shift the line.
  • No major injuries reported and no rest/travel edge; the +1.5 gives a one-score cushion in an otherwise even matchup.
PIT @ BAL
Sun, Dec 7 10:00 AM
Pick
BAL
Conf: Med
Win Prob 64%
Spread: -6.0 O/U: 42.5
Notes
  • Ravens are 6-point home favorites on DraftKings (BAL -6), so they need a touchdown margin to cover the spread.
  • Game total 42.5 implies a moderate scoring environment — not a clear shootout or defensive slog on the numbers alone.
  • Provided data shows QB statuses and major injuries as unknown/none, so roster uncertainty is limited in the dataset but not confirmed.
  • Model/odds support the pick: BAL given ~64% win probability; no rest/travel edge (0 days) noted.
CIN @ BUF
Sun, Dec 7 10:00 AM
Pick
BUF
Conf: Med
Win Prob 63%
Spread: -5.5 O/U: 52.5
Notes
  • Buffalo is a 5.5-point home favorite on DraftKings (spread -5.5); total set at 52.5.
  • Model pick: BUF with roughly a 63% win probability; confidence rating listed as 1.
  • Both teams' quarterback statuses are unknown in the available data; no major injuries reported.
  • Rest is even (0-day edge) and there are no travel or weather flags — monitor for late updates before kickoff.
DEN @ LV
Sun, Dec 7 1:05 PM
Pick
DEN
Conf: Med
Win Prob 68%
Spread: +7.5 O/U: 40.5
Notes
  • Pick: Denver — they’re listed with a +7.5 spread on DraftKings, so you get a sizable points cushion.
  • Total is 40.5, signaling a likely low-scoring game where that cushion can matter late.
  • Quarterback statuses are unknown right now — monitor starter news before putting money down.
  • No major injuries or rest/travel edge reported; the model lists Denver with about a 68% win probability.
CHI @ GB
Sun, Dec 7 1:25 PM
Pick
GB
Conf: Med
Win Prob 65%
Spread: -6.5 O/U: 44.5
Notes
  • DraftKings line: GB -6.5 — Green Bay is favored by just under a touchdown.
  • Total 44.5 suggests a moderate scoring game; expect a controlled affair rather than a shootout.
  • Both teams' QB statuses are listed as unknown in available info — late QB news could shift the line.
  • No major injuries or rest/travel edge noted; model gives GB ~65% win probability, so the pick is GB.
LAR @ ARI
Sun, Dec 7 1:25 PM
Pick
LAR
Conf: Med
Win Prob 68%
Spread: +7.5 O/U: 48.5
Notes
  • Pick: LAR; DraftKings shows a 7.5-point spread and a 48.5 over/under — this pick is LAR against that line.
  • Model assigns LAR roughly a 68% win probability on this matchup.
  • Both teams’ QB statuses are listed as unknown and no major injuries are reported, so key-player availability is a data risk.
  • No rest or travel edge is indicated and weather is unknown; the 48.5 total implies a moderate-scoring game to consider for prop/spread decisions.
HOU @ KC
Sun, Dec 7 5:20 PM
Pick
KC
Conf: Low
Win Prob 58%
Spread: -3.5 O/U: 41.5
Notes
  • Pick: KC — listed as the 3.5-point home favorite (KC -3.5 on DraftKings).
  • Projection gives KC about a 58% win probability based on current data.
  • Game total 41.5 implies a mid/low scoring matchup; scoring outlook will hinge on QB play and game script.
  • Both teams' QB statuses and the weather are currently unknown; no major injuries or rest/travel edge reported—monitor final reports before locking bets.
PHI @ LAC
Mon, Dec 8 5:15 PM
Pick
PHI
Conf: Low
Win Prob 57%
Spread: +3.0 O/U: 40.5
Notes
  • DraftKings lists PHI +3.0 vs LAC with an O/U of 40.5.
  • Model gives PHI about a 57% chance to win straight up (win prob ~0.57).
  • Both QBs currently listed as unknown and there are no major injuries reported; check final QB/injury updates before kickoff.
  • Zero-day rest edge and no travel advantage noted; the modest total (40.5) points to a lower-scoring, close game where a three-point underdog can stay competitive.

Today's Summaries

NFL Summary

NFL Day-in-Review — Aug 25, 2025

Quick snapshot

  • Roster cutdown day: Teams are trimming to a 53-man roster by the league deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday). That drove a flurry of cuts, trades and last-minute moves across the league.
  • Big contract/retention moves: Bengals and Commanders locked in key veterans — Trey Hendrickson (one-year, ~$30M) and Terry McLaurin (3 years, up to $96M) — decisions that matter for those teams' defenses and offenses, respectively.
  • Patriots continued cutting into their 2024 draft class (Layden Robinson waived/injured), highlighting roster thinness as their depth will be tested early in the season.
  • Preseason takeaways: Several rookies impressed (TreVeyon Henderson, Jaxson Dart, Frank Gore Jr.) while others struggled (Shedeur Sanders), shaping who gets final roster spots and practice-squad attention.

Rosters, waivers and what those rules mean

  • Cutdown basics: Teams must get from their preseason rosters (up to 90) to a regular-season 53 by the deadline — many players will be released or waived.
  • Waivers vs. free agency: Players with fewer than four accrued NFL seasons are "waived" (subject to the waiver wire). If another team claims them, that team assumes the player's contract. Players with four or more accrued seasons are released and become free agents able to sign immediately.
  • Claim timeline: Waiver claims must be submitted by noon ET the day after the cut deadline; if a player clears waivers, teams can sign him to their practice squad (practice squads can have up to 16 players).
  • The waiver order follows the 2025 NFL Draft order (Titans first, Browns second, Giants third, Patriots fourth, etc.), so those teams get first shot at waived youngsters.
  • Practical note: If you claim a waived player you must add him to your 53 — so claiming teams often have to cut someone else to make room.

Most newsworthy moves and why they matter

  • Patriots — Layden Robinson waived/injured: New England cut a 2024 fourth-round pick, underlining how thin the depth chart is beyond starters. Reports say Drake Maye may be the only 2024 draftee likely to stick — a big red flag for New England's recent draft returns and short-term competitiveness.
  • Cincinnati Bengals — Trey Hendrickson reworked deal: Hendrickson agreed to a one-year arrangement that raises his 2025 pay to about $30M. That keeps the team's top pass-rusher in place and is a big boost for Cincinnati's defense entering the opener.
  • Washington Commanders — Terry McLaurin extension: McLaurin's three-year, up-to-$96M deal stabilizes the Commanders' top receiving target and helps young QB Jayden Daniels retain a proven No. 1 weapon — a direct on-field boost to Washington's offense and playoff hopes.
  • Las Vegas Raiders — Jakobi Meyers requests a trade; Amari Cooper returns: Meyers wants out over contract talks, but the Raiders plan to keep him. To add depth and experience they signed Amari Cooper to a one-year deal — a veteran move that affects Las Vegas' receiver hierarchy immediately.
  • Buccaneers — Shilo Sanders waived after ejection: Sanders was ejected in the preseason for throwing a punch and was waived less than 24 hours later; the Bucs may pursue him for the practice squad if he clears waivers. This is a reminder teams weigh on-field behavior as well as talent.

Preseason winners, losers and notable performances

  • Winners:
    • TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots): Big splash in limited snaps — efficient running, three catches and a 100-yard kickoff-return TD. Could push for meaningful early-season touches.
    • Jaxson Dart (Giants): Very productive in preseason (372 yards, 3 TDs), accelerating the Giants' QB succession talk even though Russell Wilson opens as the starter.
    • Frank Gore Jr. (Bills): Only player this preseason with 100+ rushing and 100+ receiving yards — boosted his odds to stick on a practice squad or grab interest if waived.
    • Kansas City starters: Mahomes looked sharp in limited work, signaling the Chiefs' offense could be explosive when the wide receivers are healthy.
  • Losers / concerns:
    • Shedeur Sanders (Browns): After a strong debut he struggled in the finale (3 completions, 5 sacks). Cleveland plans to keep four QBs and Sanders looks like a developmental piece behind Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and Dillon Gabriel.
    • Micah Parsons / Cowboys drama: Parsons' contract standoff and public back-and-forth with ownership remain a distraction for Dallas entering the season; a Netflix doc about the Jones/Cowboys era added to the headlines.
    • Players cut who drew attention: Examples include QB Ben DiNucci (Falcons), who posted a lighthearted airport beer photo after his release — a pop-culture/social-media moment amid cuts.

Narratives to watch early in the season

  • QB rooms and backup depth: Several teams reshaped backup plans; the Vikings added Carson Wentz late and other clubs shuffled QBs, meaning Week 1 depth charts could look different than expected.
  • Patriots' depth test: New England's thin roster after cuts makes early injuries more impactful — could affect their divisional race in the AFC East if depth fails to hold up.
  • Bengals defense: Retaining Hendrickson improves pass-rush outlook; if Cincinnati's defense bites, that affects AFC playoff seeding dynamics.
  • Giants succession: Jaxson Dart's preseason surge creates storyline tension for New York: how soon will he be given a real shot to replace Russell Wilson?

Rules & clarifications fans might see in headlines

  • Fighting/punching rule: Throwing a punch in-game is explicitly penalized — a 15-yard penalty and likely ejection. That explains why Shilo Sanders' punch led to an immediate ejection and significantly hurt his roster chances.
  • Waiver basics recap: Young players (under four accrued seasons) are waived and can be claimed in order of waiver priority; older veterans become free agents immediately. If unclaimed, a player can sign to any practice squad, including returning to his original team.

Notable quotes from the last 24 hours

“In what could be the start of a stretch where the Pats dismiss almost all of their draft class from a year ago, they waived/injured 2024 fourth-round pick Layden Robinson.” — Chad Graff
“You can't throw punches in this league — that's inexcusable. They're going to get you every time. You've got to grow from that.” — Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles (about Shilo Sanders)
“Thanks everyone for the [love] and support. There's a lot to learn from this preseason, but I'm really thankful for the opportunity to be out there. Day by day, rep by rep, I'll keep learning and getting better.” — Shedeur Sanders

Why this all matters — the short version for casual fans

  • Roster cuts shape Week 1: Which young players survive cuts, which veterans are traded or re-signed, and who lands on practice squads will determine which teams have depth for injuries and playoff pushes.
  • Big-name signings affect contenders: Retaining Hendrickson and extending McLaurin immediately impacts Bengals/Commanders outlooks — those moves can swing competitive balance in the AFC and NFC.
  • Preseason performances can change futures: Breakout rookies (Henderson, Dart, Gore Jr.) could earn significant roles or fantasy value; summer struggles (Shedeur) can slow a player's upward trajectory.
  • Off-field moments trend into culture: Contract fights, Netflix documentaries, social-media reactions to cuts and lighthearted posts (airport beer) keep the league in mainstream conversation — they also influence perceptions and sometimes front-office decisions.

How to follow the final moves

  • Watch for the cut deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday) and the waiver-claim window (claims due by noon ET Wednesday).
  • Live trackers from major outlets will list claims, practice-squad additions and late trades — those updates show which young players get second chances.
  • If you play fantasy, monitor practice-squad eligible players and recent breakout preseason performers — they can be late-round adds or waiver-wire targets soon after cuts.
An unhandled error has occurred. Reload 🗙