NFL Picks — Week 18
CAR @ TB
Sat, Jan 3 1:30 PMPick
TB
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: Tampa Bay (TB).
- No betting line or total available — market not set.
- No major injuries listed; both teams' QB statuses are unknown.
- Neutral rest/travel (0-day edge) and weather risk unknown; listed win probability 50% with very low confidence.
SEA @ SF
Sat, Jan 3 5:00 PMPick
SF
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: SF — they're the home team for Week 18.
- No spread, total or moneyline available yet; treat this as a neutral-market pick until odds post.
- Both QBs listed as "unknown" and no major injuries reported for either side in the provided info.
- No rest/travel edge (0 days); weather and travel notes are unknown — monitor late-week reports before wagering.
NO @ ATL
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
ATL
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: Atlanta (home) in Week 18.
- No betting line provided—no spread or total to weigh.
- Both QBs listed as unknown and no key injuries reported; watch starter and injury updates.
- Rest/travel show no edge (0-day difference) and weather risk unknown; late info could matter.
CLE @ CIN
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
CIN
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: Cincinnati (home) in Week 18 vs. Cleveland.
- No betting line or total available; listed win probability is 50%.
- Both teams' quarterback statuses are unknown and no major injuries are reported for either side.
- No rest/travel advantage (0-day edge) and weather risk not reported, so home field is the only clear edge.
GB @ MIN
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
MIN
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: Minnesota (MIN) — home team.
- No spread, moneyline, or total available yet; check odds before wagering.
- Both QBs listed as "unknown" and there are no major injuries reported for either side.
- Week 18 game — rest/roster decisions are common; restEdgeDays = 0 and weather/travel details are unknown, so expect more lineup uncertainty.
DAL @ NYG
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
NYG
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Week 18: New York Giants host Dallas Cowboys; no spread, total or moneyline posted in the available info.
- QB statuses are listed as unknown for both teams and there are no major injuries noted in the provided context — check updates before kickoff.
- Rest/travel are neutral (no edge) and weather risk is unknown from the supplied data.
- Pick: NYG — an even projection based on available information; monitor late QB/injury news and the posted line.
TEN @ JAX
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
JAX
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Week 18 matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars (home) vs Tennessee Titans (away).
- No betting line, spread, or total is available for this game.
- Quarterback statuses and key injuries are not reported in the available data.
- Pick: JAX — listed win probability 50% and confidence: 0 per the provided information.
IND @ HOU
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
HOU
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: HOU in Week 18 at home vs IND; no spread or total available.
- Quarterback statuses for both teams are listed as unknown.
- No major injuries reported for either side in the provided info.
- Rest edge even (0 days); model shows 50% win probability and low confidence—basically a coin flip.
NYJ @ BUF
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
BUF
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: Buffalo (BUF).
- Betting lines (spread/total/moneyline) are not available yet — wait for posted odds.
- QB status for both teams is unknown; no major injuries listed for either side.
- No rest advantage (0 days); weather and travel info are unknown. Model win probability 50% with confidence 0.
DET @ CHI
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
CHI
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: CHI — they're the home team in this Week 18 matchup.
- No betting line or total is available, so spread/over-under can't be factored.
- Quarterback statuses are listed as unknown and there are no major injuries reported for either side.
- No rest or travel edge and weather risk is unknown; model shows a 50% win probability and confidence 0, reflecting limited info.
LAC @ DEN
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
DEN
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: DEN (home team in Week 18).
- No spread, total, or moneyline provided in the data — check odds before wagering.
- Both teams' QB statuses are listed as unknown, so starting-QB impact is unclear.
- No major injuries reported in the provided info; rest/travel advantage and weather risk are also unknown.
KC @ LV
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
LV
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: Las Vegas (LV) — they're the home team in Week 18.
- No spread or total posted, so there's no betting-market signal to adjust the pick.
- Both teams' QBs are listed as unknown and there are no major injuries reported, which raises uncertainty.
- Rest is even (0 days) and weather/travel details are not reported, so this leans to the home side in otherwise neutral conditions.
ARI @ LAR
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
LAR
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: LAR (Rams) — they are the home team in Week 18.
- No betting line (spread/total) is available, so matchup pricing and value can't be assessed.
- Starting QB statuses are listed as unknown and there are no key injuries reported for either side.
- Rest, travel and weather details are not reported, which increases uncertainty for the game.
- Metadata shows a 50% win probability and very low confidence in the selection.
MIA @ NE
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
NE
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: NE (home, Week 18).
- Model shows ~50% win probability and confidence flagged as low.
- No spread/total/moneyline available for this matchup.
- Both teams' QB statuses are listed as unknown and there are no reported key injuries.
- Rest edge is neutral (0 days) and weather/travel details are unknown, adding uncertainty.
WSH @ PHI
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
PHI
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: PHI (home team for Week 18).
- No odds/point spread or total available, so market value and bet sizing are unknown.
- QB statuses are listed as unknown and there are no major injuries reported for either side, which increases uncertainty.
- Rest/travel is neutral (0-day edge) and weather risk is unknown; model shows a 50% win probability with zero confidence—watch late QB/injury news before wagering.
BAL @ PIT
Sun, Jan 4 5:20 PMPick
PIT
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: PIT (home) vs BAL — Week 18.
- Both QBs listed as unknown and no key injuries reported for either team in the provided data; check final reports before betting.
- No betting line or total available, so spread/over-under wasn’t a factor in this pick.
- Rest even (0-day edge) and no weather/travel advantage noted; available info implies an approximately 50/50 matchup.
Today's Summaries
NFL Summary
Quick snapshot
- Roster cutdown day: Teams are trimming to a 53-man roster by the league deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday). That drove a flurry of cuts, trades and last-minute moves across the league.
- Big contract/retention moves: Bengals and Commanders locked in key veterans — Trey Hendrickson (one-year, ~$30M) and Terry McLaurin (3 years, up to $96M) — decisions that matter for those teams' defenses and offenses, respectively.
- Patriots continued cutting into their 2024 draft class (Layden Robinson waived/injured), highlighting roster thinness as their depth will be tested early in the season.
- Preseason takeaways: Several rookies impressed (TreVeyon Henderson, Jaxson Dart, Frank Gore Jr.) while others struggled (Shedeur Sanders), shaping who gets final roster spots and practice-squad attention.
Rosters, waivers and what those rules mean
- Cutdown basics: Teams must get from their preseason rosters (up to 90) to a regular-season 53 by the deadline — many players will be released or waived.
- Waivers vs. free agency: Players with fewer than four accrued NFL seasons are "waived" (subject to the waiver wire). If another team claims them, that team assumes the player's contract. Players with four or more accrued seasons are released and become free agents able to sign immediately.
- Claim timeline: Waiver claims must be submitted by noon ET the day after the cut deadline; if a player clears waivers, teams can sign him to their practice squad (practice squads can have up to 16 players).
The waiver order follows the 2025 NFL Draft order (Titans first, Browns second, Giants third, Patriots fourth, etc.), so those teams get first shot at waived youngsters.
- Practical note: If you claim a waived player you must add him to your 53 — so claiming teams often have to cut someone else to make room.
Most newsworthy moves and why they matter
- Patriots — Layden Robinson waived/injured: New England cut a 2024 fourth-round pick, underlining how thin the depth chart is beyond starters. Reports say Drake Maye may be the only 2024 draftee likely to stick — a big red flag for New England's recent draft returns and short-term competitiveness.
- Cincinnati Bengals — Trey Hendrickson reworked deal: Hendrickson agreed to a one-year arrangement that raises his 2025 pay to about $30M. That keeps the team's top pass-rusher in place and is a big boost for Cincinnati's defense entering the opener.
- Washington Commanders — Terry McLaurin extension: McLaurin's three-year, up-to-$96M deal stabilizes the Commanders' top receiving target and helps young QB Jayden Daniels retain a proven No. 1 weapon — a direct on-field boost to Washington's offense and playoff hopes.
- Las Vegas Raiders — Jakobi Meyers requests a trade; Amari Cooper returns: Meyers wants out over contract talks, but the Raiders plan to keep him. To add depth and experience they signed Amari Cooper to a one-year deal — a veteran move that affects Las Vegas' receiver hierarchy immediately.
- Buccaneers — Shilo Sanders waived after ejection: Sanders was ejected in the preseason for throwing a punch and was waived less than 24 hours later; the Bucs may pursue him for the practice squad if he clears waivers. This is a reminder teams weigh on-field behavior as well as talent.
Preseason winners, losers and notable performances
- Winners:
- TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots): Big splash in limited snaps — efficient running, three catches and a 100-yard kickoff-return TD. Could push for meaningful early-season touches.
- Jaxson Dart (Giants): Very productive in preseason (372 yards, 3 TDs), accelerating the Giants' QB succession talk even though Russell Wilson opens as the starter.
- Frank Gore Jr. (Bills): Only player this preseason with 100+ rushing and 100+ receiving yards — boosted his odds to stick on a practice squad or grab interest if waived.
- Kansas City starters: Mahomes looked sharp in limited work, signaling the Chiefs' offense could be explosive when the wide receivers are healthy.
- Losers / concerns:
- Shedeur Sanders (Browns): After a strong debut he struggled in the finale (3 completions, 5 sacks). Cleveland plans to keep four QBs and Sanders looks like a developmental piece behind Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and Dillon Gabriel.
- Micah Parsons / Cowboys drama: Parsons' contract standoff and public back-and-forth with ownership remain a distraction for Dallas entering the season; a Netflix doc about the Jones/Cowboys era added to the headlines.
- Players cut who drew attention: Examples include QB Ben DiNucci (Falcons), who posted a lighthearted airport beer photo after his release — a pop-culture/social-media moment amid cuts.
Narratives to watch early in the season
- QB rooms and backup depth: Several teams reshaped backup plans; the Vikings added Carson Wentz late and other clubs shuffled QBs, meaning Week 1 depth charts could look different than expected.
- Patriots' depth test: New England's thin roster after cuts makes early injuries more impactful — could affect their divisional race in the AFC East if depth fails to hold up.
- Bengals defense: Retaining Hendrickson improves pass-rush outlook; if Cincinnati's defense bites, that affects AFC playoff seeding dynamics.
- Giants succession: Jaxson Dart's preseason surge creates storyline tension for New York: how soon will he be given a real shot to replace Russell Wilson?
Rules & clarifications fans might see in headlines
- Fighting/punching rule: Throwing a punch in-game is explicitly penalized — a 15-yard penalty and likely ejection. That explains why Shilo Sanders' punch led to an immediate ejection and significantly hurt his roster chances.
- Waiver basics recap: Young players (under four accrued seasons) are waived and can be claimed in order of waiver priority; older veterans become free agents immediately. If unclaimed, a player can sign to any practice squad, including returning to his original team.
Notable quotes from the last 24 hours
“In what could be the start of a stretch where the Pats dismiss almost all of their draft class from a year ago, they waived/injured 2024 fourth-round pick Layden Robinson.” — Chad Graff
“You can't throw punches in this league — that's inexcusable. They're going to get you every time. You've got to grow from that.” — Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles (about Shilo Sanders)
“Thanks everyone for the [love] and support. There's a lot to learn from this preseason, but I'm really thankful for the opportunity to be out there. Day by day, rep by rep, I'll keep learning and getting better.” — Shedeur Sanders
Why this all matters — the short version for casual fans
- Roster cuts shape Week 1: Which young players survive cuts, which veterans are traded or re-signed, and who lands on practice squads will determine which teams have depth for injuries and playoff pushes.
- Big-name signings affect contenders: Retaining Hendrickson and extending McLaurin immediately impacts Bengals/Commanders outlooks — those moves can swing competitive balance in the AFC and NFC.
- Preseason performances can change futures: Breakout rookies (Henderson, Dart, Gore Jr.) could earn significant roles or fantasy value; summer struggles (Shedeur) can slow a player's upward trajectory.
- Off-field moments trend into culture: Contract fights, Netflix documentaries, social-media reactions to cuts and lighthearted posts (airport beer) keep the league in mainstream conversation — they also influence perceptions and sometimes front-office decisions.
How to follow the final moves
- Watch for the cut deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday) and the waiver-claim window (claims due by noon ET Wednesday).
- Live trackers from major outlets will list claims, practice-squad additions and late trades — those updates show which young players get second chances.
- If you play fantasy, monitor practice-squad eligible players and recent breakout preseason performers — they can be late-round adds or waiver-wire targets soon after cuts.