NFL Picks — Week 14

DAL @ DET
Thu, Dec 4 5:15 PM
Pick
DET
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: Detroit (DET) — home team in Week 14, 2025.
  • No betting line or total available, so no spread/over‑under context.
  • Both teams' QB statuses are listed as unknown; no key injuries reported for either side.
  • Rest edge is even (0 days) and weather/travel details are not reported — pick reflects a 50/50, low‑confidence call.
SEA @ ATL
Sun, Dec 7 10:00 AM
Pick
SEA
Conf: Med
Win Prob 67%
Spread: +7.0 O/U: 44.5
Notes
  • SEA is a 7-point underdog (SEA +7); the spread gives them a full-point cushion in a one-score game.
  • Model pick favors SEA — win probability ~67% — so the choice is for Seattle to win outright despite the line.
  • QB statuses are listed as unknown and there are no major injuries reported for either side, so no clear health edge.
  • Total is 44.5 and rest edge is neutral (0 days); travel and weather are unknown, so external factors appear even.
TEN @ CLE
Sun, Dec 7 10:00 AM
Pick
CLE
Conf: Med
Win Prob 61%
Spread: -4.5 O/U: 33.5
Notes
  • Pick CLE (listed -4.5 on DraftKings) — projection gives Cleveland a ~60.6% chance to win.
  • Game total 33.5 — market expects a lower-scoring affair, so late-game possessions and field position will matter.
  • No major injuries listed and no rest/travel edge in the provided data, so expect normal lineups unless new injury news emerges.
  • Both QBs are listed as unknown here — confirm starter reports before finalizing any bet, since a QB change would affect the line.
WSH @ MIN
Sun, Dec 7 10:00 AM
Pick
WAS
Conf: Low
Win Prob 53%
Spread: +1.5 O/U: 43.5
Notes
  • Pick Washington (+1.5) — model gives them about a 53% chance to win, so the half-point gives a small cushion to cover.
  • DraftKings total is 43.5, a moderate scoring line; game could lean lower if offenses struggle.
  • Both QBs listed as unknown, increasing outcome uncertainty; monitor starter news before kickoff.
  • No major injuries reported and no rest/travel edge; Minnesota is the home team and weather info is not yet available.
MIA @ NYJ
Sun, Dec 7 10:00 AM
Pick
MIA
Conf: Low
Win Prob 56%
Spread: +2.5 O/U: 40.5
Notes
  • Line: Miami is +2.5 at DraftKings with the total at 40.5 — a close spread and a low game total.
  • Context: This is Miami on the road vs. the Jets (Week 14); both QBs are listed as unknown, so starter confirmation matters.
  • Health/rest: No major injuries reported in the provided data and no rest advantage for either team.
  • Pick: MIA — model win probability ≈ 55.7%, taking Miami with the +2.5 cushion in a projected low-scoring game.
NO @ TB
Sun, Dec 7 10:00 AM
Pick
TB
Conf: Med
Win Prob 68%
Spread: -7.5 O/U: 41.5
Notes
  • Week 14 (2025): Tampa Bay is the home team and a 7.5-point favorite on DraftKings.
  • Model/pick gives TB about a 68% chance to win — pick is TB, expected to cover the spread.
  • The total is 41.5, so the market implies a lower-scoring game rather than a shootout.
  • No major injuries listed; QB status and weather are unknown, so watch late news but current edge favors TB.
IND @ JAX
Sun, Dec 7 10:00 AM
Pick
IND
Conf: Low
Win Prob 53%
Spread: +1.5 O/U: 45.5
Notes
  • Pick: IND (+1.5 on DraftKings) — take the Colts to cover the small spread.
  • Total 45.5 — market expects a close, mid-range scoring game.
  • No listed key injuries and both QBs show unknown status, so no clear roster advantage.
  • Rest/travel even (0‑day edge) and pick win probability ~53%, so this is a narrow, low-confidence edge.
PIT @ BAL
Sun, Dec 7 10:00 AM
Pick
BAL
Conf: Med
Win Prob 63%
Spread: -5.5 O/U: 43.5
Notes
  • Pick: Baltimore at home — DraftKings spread BAL -5.5; model win probability ≈63%.
  • Both teams' QB status listed as unknown and there are no reported major injuries in the provided data.
  • Rest/travel is even (0-day edge), so no clear fatigue advantage.
  • Game total is 43.5; weather is unknown and could affect scoring if adverse.
CIN @ BUF
Sun, Dec 7 10:00 AM
Pick
BUF
Conf: Med
Win Prob 64%
Spread: -6.0 O/U: 54.5
Notes
  • Buffalo is a 6-point favorite on DraftKings (Spread: BUF -6).
  • Pick: BUF — model gives roughly a 64% win probability.
  • No key injuries listed; both QBs currently listed as "unknown" — monitor starters before wagering.
  • DraftKings O/U 54.5 (relatively high) and no rest edge — both teams have same days off.
DEN @ LV
Sun, Dec 7 1:05 PM
Pick
DEN
Conf: Med
Win Prob 68%
Spread: +7.5 O/U: 40.5
Notes
  • Pick: Denver — DraftKings shows a 7.5-point spread (Denver the underdog) and a 40.5 total.
  • Model backing: the pick gives Denver about a 68% win probability with high confidence.
  • Both teams’ QB status is listed as unknown and there are no key injuries reported, so late-week reports could matter.
  • Rest is even (0-day edge) and the modest total suggests a lower-scoring game; the spread makes Denver a value play if you expect a close, controlled contest.
CHI @ GB
Sun, Dec 7 1:25 PM
Pick
GB
Conf: Med
Win Prob 65%
Spread: -6.5 O/U: 43.5
Notes
  • Week 14 at home: GB is a 6.5-point favorite on DraftKings; pick is GB.
  • Model projects roughly a 65% win probability for Green Bay.
  • Over/under 43.5 points — market expects a moderate-scoring game where a few possessions matter for the spread.
  • QB status and key injuries are listed as unknown; no rest edge reported and weather/travel not reported—check updates before kickoff.
LAR @ ARI
Sun, Dec 7 1:25 PM
Pick
LAR
Conf: High
Win Prob 73%
Spread: +9.5 O/U: 48.5
Notes
  • Pick: LAR — model gives about a 72.5% chance to win.
  • DraftKings line: 9.5-point spread and 48.5 total; the spread implies the market expects a decisive result.
  • No listed major injuries and no rest/travel edge; both QBs currently listed as unknown — monitor starter news.
  • Weather risk unknown; given the low confidence (2), lock in only after final injury/QB confirmations.
HOU @ KC
Sun, Dec 7 5:20 PM
Pick
KC
Conf: Low
Win Prob 58%
Spread: -3.5 O/U: 41.5
Notes
  • Backing KC at home — DraftKings spread KC -3.5, total 41.5.
  • Model gives KC about a 58% win probability, so this is a modest favorite on a single-score spread.
  • Both teams’ QB statuses are listed as unknown; confirm starters before kickoff.
  • No major injuries reported in the game notes, no rest advantage, and weather risk is unknown — monitor late news.
PHI @ LAC
Mon, Dec 8 5:15 PM
Pick
PHI
Conf: Low
Win Prob 56%
Spread: +2.5 O/U: 42.5
Notes
  • Pick: PHI (away) — DraftKings lists PHI +2.5; game total 42.5.
  • Model gives PHI about a 56% chance to win based on available data.
  • No confirmed QB statuses or major injuries in the provided info — watch for late updates before betting.
  • Zero-day rest edge and a sub-43 total point toward a tighter, lower-scoring game where the 2.5-point spread matters.

Today's Summaries

NFL Summary

NFL Day-in-Review — Aug 25, 2025

Quick snapshot

  • Roster cutdown day: Teams are trimming to a 53-man roster by the league deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday). That drove a flurry of cuts, trades and last-minute moves across the league.
  • Big contract/retention moves: Bengals and Commanders locked in key veterans — Trey Hendrickson (one-year, ~$30M) and Terry McLaurin (3 years, up to $96M) — decisions that matter for those teams' defenses and offenses, respectively.
  • Patriots continued cutting into their 2024 draft class (Layden Robinson waived/injured), highlighting roster thinness as their depth will be tested early in the season.
  • Preseason takeaways: Several rookies impressed (TreVeyon Henderson, Jaxson Dart, Frank Gore Jr.) while others struggled (Shedeur Sanders), shaping who gets final roster spots and practice-squad attention.

Rosters, waivers and what those rules mean

  • Cutdown basics: Teams must get from their preseason rosters (up to 90) to a regular-season 53 by the deadline — many players will be released or waived.
  • Waivers vs. free agency: Players with fewer than four accrued NFL seasons are "waived" (subject to the waiver wire). If another team claims them, that team assumes the player's contract. Players with four or more accrued seasons are released and become free agents able to sign immediately.
  • Claim timeline: Waiver claims must be submitted by noon ET the day after the cut deadline; if a player clears waivers, teams can sign him to their practice squad (practice squads can have up to 16 players).
  • The waiver order follows the 2025 NFL Draft order (Titans first, Browns second, Giants third, Patriots fourth, etc.), so those teams get first shot at waived youngsters.
  • Practical note: If you claim a waived player you must add him to your 53 — so claiming teams often have to cut someone else to make room.

Most newsworthy moves and why they matter

  • Patriots — Layden Robinson waived/injured: New England cut a 2024 fourth-round pick, underlining how thin the depth chart is beyond starters. Reports say Drake Maye may be the only 2024 draftee likely to stick — a big red flag for New England's recent draft returns and short-term competitiveness.
  • Cincinnati Bengals — Trey Hendrickson reworked deal: Hendrickson agreed to a one-year arrangement that raises his 2025 pay to about $30M. That keeps the team's top pass-rusher in place and is a big boost for Cincinnati's defense entering the opener.
  • Washington Commanders — Terry McLaurin extension: McLaurin's three-year, up-to-$96M deal stabilizes the Commanders' top receiving target and helps young QB Jayden Daniels retain a proven No. 1 weapon — a direct on-field boost to Washington's offense and playoff hopes.
  • Las Vegas Raiders — Jakobi Meyers requests a trade; Amari Cooper returns: Meyers wants out over contract talks, but the Raiders plan to keep him. To add depth and experience they signed Amari Cooper to a one-year deal — a veteran move that affects Las Vegas' receiver hierarchy immediately.
  • Buccaneers — Shilo Sanders waived after ejection: Sanders was ejected in the preseason for throwing a punch and was waived less than 24 hours later; the Bucs may pursue him for the practice squad if he clears waivers. This is a reminder teams weigh on-field behavior as well as talent.

Preseason winners, losers and notable performances

  • Winners:
    • TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots): Big splash in limited snaps — efficient running, three catches and a 100-yard kickoff-return TD. Could push for meaningful early-season touches.
    • Jaxson Dart (Giants): Very productive in preseason (372 yards, 3 TDs), accelerating the Giants' QB succession talk even though Russell Wilson opens as the starter.
    • Frank Gore Jr. (Bills): Only player this preseason with 100+ rushing and 100+ receiving yards — boosted his odds to stick on a practice squad or grab interest if waived.
    • Kansas City starters: Mahomes looked sharp in limited work, signaling the Chiefs' offense could be explosive when the wide receivers are healthy.
  • Losers / concerns:
    • Shedeur Sanders (Browns): After a strong debut he struggled in the finale (3 completions, 5 sacks). Cleveland plans to keep four QBs and Sanders looks like a developmental piece behind Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and Dillon Gabriel.
    • Micah Parsons / Cowboys drama: Parsons' contract standoff and public back-and-forth with ownership remain a distraction for Dallas entering the season; a Netflix doc about the Jones/Cowboys era added to the headlines.
    • Players cut who drew attention: Examples include QB Ben DiNucci (Falcons), who posted a lighthearted airport beer photo after his release — a pop-culture/social-media moment amid cuts.

Narratives to watch early in the season

  • QB rooms and backup depth: Several teams reshaped backup plans; the Vikings added Carson Wentz late and other clubs shuffled QBs, meaning Week 1 depth charts could look different than expected.
  • Patriots' depth test: New England's thin roster after cuts makes early injuries more impactful — could affect their divisional race in the AFC East if depth fails to hold up.
  • Bengals defense: Retaining Hendrickson improves pass-rush outlook; if Cincinnati's defense bites, that affects AFC playoff seeding dynamics.
  • Giants succession: Jaxson Dart's preseason surge creates storyline tension for New York: how soon will he be given a real shot to replace Russell Wilson?

Rules & clarifications fans might see in headlines

  • Fighting/punching rule: Throwing a punch in-game is explicitly penalized — a 15-yard penalty and likely ejection. That explains why Shilo Sanders' punch led to an immediate ejection and significantly hurt his roster chances.
  • Waiver basics recap: Young players (under four accrued seasons) are waived and can be claimed in order of waiver priority; older veterans become free agents immediately. If unclaimed, a player can sign to any practice squad, including returning to his original team.

Notable quotes from the last 24 hours

“In what could be the start of a stretch where the Pats dismiss almost all of their draft class from a year ago, they waived/injured 2024 fourth-round pick Layden Robinson.” — Chad Graff
“You can't throw punches in this league — that's inexcusable. They're going to get you every time. You've got to grow from that.” — Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles (about Shilo Sanders)
“Thanks everyone for the [love] and support. There's a lot to learn from this preseason, but I'm really thankful for the opportunity to be out there. Day by day, rep by rep, I'll keep learning and getting better.” — Shedeur Sanders

Why this all matters — the short version for casual fans

  • Roster cuts shape Week 1: Which young players survive cuts, which veterans are traded or re-signed, and who lands on practice squads will determine which teams have depth for injuries and playoff pushes.
  • Big-name signings affect contenders: Retaining Hendrickson and extending McLaurin immediately impacts Bengals/Commanders outlooks — those moves can swing competitive balance in the AFC and NFC.
  • Preseason performances can change futures: Breakout rookies (Henderson, Dart, Gore Jr.) could earn significant roles or fantasy value; summer struggles (Shedeur) can slow a player's upward trajectory.
  • Off-field moments trend into culture: Contract fights, Netflix documentaries, social-media reactions to cuts and lighthearted posts (airport beer) keep the league in mainstream conversation — they also influence perceptions and sometimes front-office decisions.

How to follow the final moves

  • Watch for the cut deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday) and the waiver-claim window (claims due by noon ET Wednesday).
  • Live trackers from major outlets will list claims, practice-squad additions and late trades — those updates show which young players get second chances.
  • If you play fantasy, monitor practice-squad eligible players and recent breakout preseason performers — they can be late-round adds or waiver-wire targets soon after cuts.
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