NFL Picks — Week 18
CAR @ TB
Sat, Jan 3 1:30 PMPick
TB
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Week 18 in Tampa Bay — pick: TB (home team).
- No betting line available (spread/total/moneyline not provided).
- Both teams' QB statuses are unknown and no major injuries listed, which limits projection.
- Rest edge is 0 and travel/weather are unknown — pick leans home side but confidence is low.
SEA @ SF
Sat, Jan 3 5:00 PMPick
SF
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: San Francisco (home team for Week 18).
- QB statuses are listed as unknown and there are no major injuries reported for either side.
- No moneyline, spread or total provided, so betting-market context is unavailable.
- Model shows a 50% win probability and confidence 0 — low confidence; late scratches, rest decisions or weather could change the outlook.
NO @ ATL
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
ATL
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: Atlanta (home team) — leaning with ATL in Week 18 despite no betting lines provided.
- Quarterback status for both teams is listed as unknown; late QB news could change the outlook.
- No key injuries reported in the provided info, so available rosters appear intact per the context.
- Spread/total and weather not available and rest is neutral (0 days); confidence is low, treat this as a cautious lean.
CLE @ CIN
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
CIN
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: Cincinnati (CIN). Listed win probability 50% and confidence 0 — low-confidence call.
- No betting line, spread, or total is available for this game, so market context is missing.
- Both quarterbacks are listed as unknown and there are no reported major injuries for either team.
- CIN is the home team; rest shows no edge and weather/travel information is not reported, so factors are largely neutral.
GB @ MIN
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
MIN
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: Minnesota (MIN) — Vikings are the home team for this Week 18 matchup.
- No spread or total posted yet; check lines when they become available before wagering.
- Quarterback statuses are listed as unknown and there are no listed major injuries; monitor the final injury report.
- No rest/travel edge (0 days) and weather risk unknown—these should be checked closer to kickoff.
DAL @ NYG
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
NYG
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: New York Giants (home) over Dallas Cowboys.
- No betting line or total available, so there’s no spread/total edge to lean on.
- Quarterback statuses are listed as unknown for both teams and no major injuries are reported.
- Rest edge is neutral (0 days); travel and weather are unknown — model lists this as essentially a 50/50 game with low confidence.
TEN @ JAX
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
JAX
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: Jacksonville (home) in Week 18.
- No odds available — spread and total not posted, so betting context is unclear.
- Both teams' QB statuses are unknown; no major injuries listed for either side.
- No rest/travel edge or weather risk indicated; projection shows a 50% win probability and very low confidence.
IND @ HOU
Sun, Jan 4 10:00 AMPick
HOU
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: HOU (Week 18, home vs IND).
- Both starting-QB statuses listed as unknown, so game outlook depends heavily on who plays.
- No major injuries reported for either side in the provided info; check late injury updates.
- No odds/line or rest/travel edge available; current data imply an even matchup with low confidence (~50% win probability).
NYJ @ BUF
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
BUF
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: BUF — Buffalo is the home team in Week 18.
- No betting line, spread, or total available, so odds aren’t factored into this pick.
- Both teams’ QB statuses are listed as unknown and there are no major injuries reported — key uncertainty.
- Rest is even (0 days edge); travel and weather information are not available.
- Model shows a 50% win probability and zero confidence, so this is a cautious home-team lean.
DET @ CHI
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
CHI
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: CHI — they are the home team for this Week 18 matchup.
- Both QBs are listed as unknown and there are no reported major injuries for either side.
- Rest edge is even (0 days); travel and weather details are not available.
- No spread, total, or moneyline posted; projected win probability is 50% with no confidence edge.
LAC @ DEN
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
DEN
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Week 18 game with Denver listed as the home team.
- No major injuries reported for either side in the provided data.
- Quarterback statuses are unknown in the current info — monitor final reports.
- No betting line or total available and rest edge is neutral (0 days); pick: DEN.
KC @ LV
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
LV
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: LV.
- QB status for both teams is listed as unknown — final starters will matter for the outcome.
- No major injuries reported for either side in the provided information.
- Betting lines (spread/total/moneyline) are not available; monitor odds when released.
- Week 18 game with equal rest (0‑day edge); travel and weather details are unknown; confidence is low (≈50%).
ARI @ LAR
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
LAR
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: LAR (home team in Week 18).
- No betting line or total available, so spread/total aren’t factored.
- Both teams’ QB statuses are listed as unknown; starters aren’t confirmed.
- No major injuries reported for either team; rest edge is even and weather is unknown.
MIA @ NE
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
NE
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: New England (home team in Week 18).
- No betting line, spread, or total available for this game.
- Both teams' starting QB status is unknown; no major injuries listed for either side.
- No clear rest, travel, or weather advantage noted; listed win probability is 50% with confidence marked 0.
WSH @ PHI
Sun, Jan 4 1:25 PMPick
PHI
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: PHI — model gives about a 50% win chance and low confidence due to limited info.
- Week 18 in Philadelphia — home-field advantage is the only clear situational edge.
- Betting lines (spread, total, moneyline) are not available yet, so no line-driven adjustment.
- QB statuses and major injuries are listed as unknown/no key injuries reported; check updates before betting.
- Rest/travel are even (0‑day edge) and weather risk is unknown, so no additional edges there.
BAL @ PIT
Sun, Jan 4 5:20 PMPick
PIT
Win Prob
50%
Spread: —
O/U: —
Notes
- Pick: PIT (Week 18, home vs BAL).
- No betting line, spread or total available — market info not posted.
- Quarterback statuses are unknown; confirm starters before wagering.
- No listed major injuries for either team in the provided context.
- Both teams have even rest (0-day edge); weather and travel risks not reported.
Today's Summaries
NFL Summary
Quick snapshot
- Roster cutdown day: Teams are trimming to a 53-man roster by the league deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday). That drove a flurry of cuts, trades and last-minute moves across the league.
- Big contract/retention moves: Bengals and Commanders locked in key veterans — Trey Hendrickson (one-year, ~$30M) and Terry McLaurin (3 years, up to $96M) — decisions that matter for those teams' defenses and offenses, respectively.
- Patriots continued cutting into their 2024 draft class (Layden Robinson waived/injured), highlighting roster thinness as their depth will be tested early in the season.
- Preseason takeaways: Several rookies impressed (TreVeyon Henderson, Jaxson Dart, Frank Gore Jr.) while others struggled (Shedeur Sanders), shaping who gets final roster spots and practice-squad attention.
Rosters, waivers and what those rules mean
- Cutdown basics: Teams must get from their preseason rosters (up to 90) to a regular-season 53 by the deadline — many players will be released or waived.
- Waivers vs. free agency: Players with fewer than four accrued NFL seasons are "waived" (subject to the waiver wire). If another team claims them, that team assumes the player's contract. Players with four or more accrued seasons are released and become free agents able to sign immediately.
- Claim timeline: Waiver claims must be submitted by noon ET the day after the cut deadline; if a player clears waivers, teams can sign him to their practice squad (practice squads can have up to 16 players).
The waiver order follows the 2025 NFL Draft order (Titans first, Browns second, Giants third, Patriots fourth, etc.), so those teams get first shot at waived youngsters.
- Practical note: If you claim a waived player you must add him to your 53 — so claiming teams often have to cut someone else to make room.
Most newsworthy moves and why they matter
- Patriots — Layden Robinson waived/injured: New England cut a 2024 fourth-round pick, underlining how thin the depth chart is beyond starters. Reports say Drake Maye may be the only 2024 draftee likely to stick — a big red flag for New England's recent draft returns and short-term competitiveness.
- Cincinnati Bengals — Trey Hendrickson reworked deal: Hendrickson agreed to a one-year arrangement that raises his 2025 pay to about $30M. That keeps the team's top pass-rusher in place and is a big boost for Cincinnati's defense entering the opener.
- Washington Commanders — Terry McLaurin extension: McLaurin's three-year, up-to-$96M deal stabilizes the Commanders' top receiving target and helps young QB Jayden Daniels retain a proven No. 1 weapon — a direct on-field boost to Washington's offense and playoff hopes.
- Las Vegas Raiders — Jakobi Meyers requests a trade; Amari Cooper returns: Meyers wants out over contract talks, but the Raiders plan to keep him. To add depth and experience they signed Amari Cooper to a one-year deal — a veteran move that affects Las Vegas' receiver hierarchy immediately.
- Buccaneers — Shilo Sanders waived after ejection: Sanders was ejected in the preseason for throwing a punch and was waived less than 24 hours later; the Bucs may pursue him for the practice squad if he clears waivers. This is a reminder teams weigh on-field behavior as well as talent.
Preseason winners, losers and notable performances
- Winners:
- TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots): Big splash in limited snaps — efficient running, three catches and a 100-yard kickoff-return TD. Could push for meaningful early-season touches.
- Jaxson Dart (Giants): Very productive in preseason (372 yards, 3 TDs), accelerating the Giants' QB succession talk even though Russell Wilson opens as the starter.
- Frank Gore Jr. (Bills): Only player this preseason with 100+ rushing and 100+ receiving yards — boosted his odds to stick on a practice squad or grab interest if waived.
- Kansas City starters: Mahomes looked sharp in limited work, signaling the Chiefs' offense could be explosive when the wide receivers are healthy.
- Losers / concerns:
- Shedeur Sanders (Browns): After a strong debut he struggled in the finale (3 completions, 5 sacks). Cleveland plans to keep four QBs and Sanders looks like a developmental piece behind Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and Dillon Gabriel.
- Micah Parsons / Cowboys drama: Parsons' contract standoff and public back-and-forth with ownership remain a distraction for Dallas entering the season; a Netflix doc about the Jones/Cowboys era added to the headlines.
- Players cut who drew attention: Examples include QB Ben DiNucci (Falcons), who posted a lighthearted airport beer photo after his release — a pop-culture/social-media moment amid cuts.
Narratives to watch early in the season
- QB rooms and backup depth: Several teams reshaped backup plans; the Vikings added Carson Wentz late and other clubs shuffled QBs, meaning Week 1 depth charts could look different than expected.
- Patriots' depth test: New England's thin roster after cuts makes early injuries more impactful — could affect their divisional race in the AFC East if depth fails to hold up.
- Bengals defense: Retaining Hendrickson improves pass-rush outlook; if Cincinnati's defense bites, that affects AFC playoff seeding dynamics.
- Giants succession: Jaxson Dart's preseason surge creates storyline tension for New York: how soon will he be given a real shot to replace Russell Wilson?
Rules & clarifications fans might see in headlines
- Fighting/punching rule: Throwing a punch in-game is explicitly penalized — a 15-yard penalty and likely ejection. That explains why Shilo Sanders' punch led to an immediate ejection and significantly hurt his roster chances.
- Waiver basics recap: Young players (under four accrued seasons) are waived and can be claimed in order of waiver priority; older veterans become free agents immediately. If unclaimed, a player can sign to any practice squad, including returning to his original team.
Notable quotes from the last 24 hours
“In what could be the start of a stretch where the Pats dismiss almost all of their draft class from a year ago, they waived/injured 2024 fourth-round pick Layden Robinson.” — Chad Graff
“You can't throw punches in this league — that's inexcusable. They're going to get you every time. You've got to grow from that.” — Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles (about Shilo Sanders)
“Thanks everyone for the [love] and support. There's a lot to learn from this preseason, but I'm really thankful for the opportunity to be out there. Day by day, rep by rep, I'll keep learning and getting better.” — Shedeur Sanders
Why this all matters — the short version for casual fans
- Roster cuts shape Week 1: Which young players survive cuts, which veterans are traded or re-signed, and who lands on practice squads will determine which teams have depth for injuries and playoff pushes.
- Big-name signings affect contenders: Retaining Hendrickson and extending McLaurin immediately impacts Bengals/Commanders outlooks — those moves can swing competitive balance in the AFC and NFC.
- Preseason performances can change futures: Breakout rookies (Henderson, Dart, Gore Jr.) could earn significant roles or fantasy value; summer struggles (Shedeur) can slow a player's upward trajectory.
- Off-field moments trend into culture: Contract fights, Netflix documentaries, social-media reactions to cuts and lighthearted posts (airport beer) keep the league in mainstream conversation — they also influence perceptions and sometimes front-office decisions.
How to follow the final moves
- Watch for the cut deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday) and the waiver-claim window (claims due by noon ET Wednesday).
- Live trackers from major outlets will list claims, practice-squad additions and late trades — those updates show which young players get second chances.
- If you play fantasy, monitor practice-squad eligible players and recent breakout preseason performers — they can be late-round adds or waiver-wire targets soon after cuts.