NFL Picks — Week 13

GB @ DET
Thu, Nov 27 10:00 AM
Pick
DET
Conf: Low
Win Prob 57%
Spread: -3.0 O/U: 48.5
Notes
  • Pick: Detroit (DET) — listed as a 3-point favorite (Spread: -3).
  • Model win probability ~57% (0.569) gives a modest edge to Detroit.
  • No major injuries reported in the provided notes; both QBs currently listed as unknown — monitor status pregame.
  • Total is 48.5, suggesting a middle-range scoring game; rest/travel show no edge (0-day difference).
KC @ DAL
Thu, Nov 27 1:30 PM
Pick
KC
Conf: Low
Win Prob 58%
Spread: +3.5 O/U: 52.5
Notes
  • Pick: Kansas City (KC) at +3.5; total 52.5 (ESPN BET).
  • Model win probability for KC ~58% — supports taking the points.
  • Both teams' QB statuses are listed as unknown; that uncertainty is a meaningful risk.
  • No major injuries reported and no rest/travel edge; weather risk also listed as unknown — check updates before lock.
CIN @ BAL
Thu, Nov 27 5:20 PM
Pick
BAL
Conf: Med
Win Prob 67%
Spread: -7.0 O/U: 52.5
Notes
  • Pick: BAL — listed as 7-point home favorites (ESPN BET spread -7).
  • Model win probability for BAL ≈ 66.6%.
  • Game total is 52.5; both QBs are currently listed as unknown, which adds uncertainty to scoring projections.
  • No major injuries reported and no rest edge for either team; watch for late injury or weather updates before betting.
CHI @ PHI
Fri, Nov 28 12:00 PM
Pick
PHI
Conf: Med
Win Prob 67%
Spread: -7.0 O/U: 44.5
Notes
  • Pick: PHI — listed as 7-point home favorites (ESPN BET: PHI -7).
  • Model/implied win probability ~66.6%, so the spread reflects a clear one-score edge.
  • Quarterback status and key injuries are currently listed as unknown/no entries — monitor pregame updates.
  • Game total 44.5; no rest/travel advantage or weather risk flagged in the available notes.
SF @ CLE
Sun, Nov 30 10:00 AM
Pick
SF
Conf: Med
Win Prob 61%
Spread: +4.5 O/U: 36.5
Notes
  • Pick SF — ESPN BET shows CLE +4.5, so San Francisco is a 4.5-point favorite.
  • Total is 36.5, a low number that points to a likely lower-scoring, defensive game.
  • Both QBs listed as unknown and no major injuries reported for either team, so availability is unclear.
  • Model gives SF ~60.6% win probability; rest/travel edge is even (0 days).
JAX @ TEN
Sun, Nov 30 10:00 AM
Pick
JAX
Conf: Med
Win Prob 65%
Spread: +6.5 O/U: 41.5
Notes
  • Take Jacksonville (+6.5 at Tennessee); ESPN BET total 41.5 suggests a lower-scoring game where the points matter.
  • Model shows JAX with ~65% win probability, making the +6.5 line attractive for the underdog.
  • Quarterback status is listed as unknown and there are no noted key injuries — monitor final injury reports before lock.
  • No rest edge (0 days) and weather is unknown, so travel/rest likely neutral factors for this matchup.
HOU @ IND
Sun, Nov 30 10:00 AM
Pick
IND
Conf: Med
Win Prob 61%
Spread: -4.5 O/U: 44.5
Notes
  • ESPN Bet: IND is a 4.5-point home favorite and the total is 44.5 — pick IND to cover the spread.
  • Both teams' QB statuses are listed as unknown, so game flow and scoring could be variable.
  • No major injuries reported for either side and no rest advantage (0 days), suggesting even preparation.
  • Model projects IND at about a 60% win probability, backing the home-side pick.
NO @ MIA
Sun, Nov 30 10:00 AM
Pick
MIA
Conf: Med
Win Prob 64%
Spread: -6.0 O/U: 42.5
Notes
  • MIA is the 6-point favorite (Spread -6 on ESPN BET); pick is MIA.
  • Model-backed win probability about 64%, indicating a clear edge for Miami in this matchup.
  • Game total 42.5 points — projects as a modest-scoring game; QB statuses are listed as unknown, which adds uncertainty.
  • No major injuries reported for either team and neither side has a rest advantage; weather risk is not reported.
ATL @ NYJ
Sun, Nov 30 10:00 AM
Pick
ATL
Conf: Low
Win Prob 56%
Spread: +2.5 O/U: 39.5
Notes
  • ATL is listed as a slight underdog at +2.5 on the spread (ESPN BET); pick remains ATL.
  • Low total (39.5) points to a likely close, lower-scoring game.
  • Both QBs currently listed as unknown, so late news could shift the line.
  • No major injuries reported and no rest edge (0 days), so roster/rest factors are neutral.
  • Model win probability for ATL ≈ 56%, supporting the small underdog play.
ARI @ TB
Sun, Nov 30 10:00 AM
Pick
TB
Conf: Low
Win Prob 58%
Spread: -3.5 O/U: 44.5
Notes
  • TB is a 3.5-point home favorite (ESPN BET); game total 44.5.
  • Model/projected win probability for TB about 58%.
  • Both teams' QB statuses are listed as unknown — a key uncertainty.
  • No major injuries reported for either side.
  • No rest/travel advantage or weather risk indicated.
LAR @ CAR
Sun, Nov 30 10:00 AM
Pick
LAR
Conf: High
Win Prob 75%
Spread: +10.5 O/U: 44.5
Notes
  • Pick: LAR — they’re +10.5 on the spread (ESPN BET), so you’re getting double‑digit points on the road.
  • Game total is 44.5, a middling number — this supports a points play more than expecting a shootout.
  • No major injuries listed and both teams have equal rest (0‑day edge); monitor late QB news (status listed as unknown).
  • Model/projection in the file gives LAR ~75% win probability but flags low confidence (2) — take value on the spread, not a stronglock.
MIN @ SEA
Sun, Nov 30 1:05 PM
Pick
SEA
Conf: High
Win Prob 77%
Spread: -11.5 O/U: 41.5
Notes
  • Pick: Seattle (SEA) — 11.5-point favorites at home on ESPN BET.
  • Model win probability ~77% but Confidence rated 2, so expect some uncertainty despite the large spread.
  • No listed major injuries; both QBs' statuses are unknown — starter clarity is a key game swing factor.
  • Game total 41.5 is modest; a lower-scoring affair would make covering an 11.5 spread more difficult.
BUF @ PIT
Sun, Nov 30 1:25 PM
Pick
BUF
Conf: Low
Win Prob 58%
Spread: +3.5 O/U: 47.5
Notes
  • Pick: Buffalo Bills (+3.5) — backing BUF to cover or pull off the road win.
  • Projection gives Buffalo roughly a 58% win probability on this matchup.
  • Neither team's QB status or key injuries are reported here, so health-related uncertainty is limited.
  • Line: Total 47.5 (ESPN BET) implies a moderate-scoring game; rest edge is neutral (0 days).
LV @ LAC
Sun, Nov 30 1:25 PM
Pick
LAC
Conf: High
Win Prob 70%
Spread: -8.5 O/U: 40.5
Notes
  • Pick: LAC — model gives roughly a 70% chance to win.
  • Market: LAC is an 8.5-point favorite (ESPN BET), so covering requires a one-score-plus win.
  • Total 40.5 suggests a lower-scoring game; unknown QB statuses make scoring and tempo less certain.
  • No listed major injuries or rest/travel edge; confidence is low (2/5) — monitor late injury/QB updates.
DEN @ WSH
Sun, Nov 30 5:20 PM
Pick
DEN
Conf: Med
Win Prob 65%
Spread: +6.5 O/U: 43.5
Notes
  • Take Denver +6.5 (ESPN BET) — pick expects DEN to keep this within a touchdown.
  • Total 43.5 is modest; a lower-scoring, tighter game makes the underdog more likely to cover.
  • Both teams have QB status listed as unknown in the provided data — monitor late-week QB reports for any change in outlook.
  • No major injuries or rest/travel edge reported, so the line looks driven by matchup factors rather than clear personnel gaps.
NYG @ NE
Mon, Dec 1 5:15 PM
Pick
NE
Conf: Med
Win Prob 68%
Spread: -7.5 O/U: 46.5
Notes
  • NE is a 7.5-point favorite (ESPN BET); pick NE — model win probability ~67.8%.
  • Both teams' QB statuses are listed as unknown, creating meaningful lineup uncertainty.
  • No major injuries reported for either side in the provided data.
  • Rest/travel show no edge and the total is 46.5; weather is unknown and could influence scoring.

Today's Summaries

NFL Summary

NFL Day-in-Review — Aug 25, 2025

Quick snapshot

  • Roster cutdown day: Teams are trimming to a 53-man roster by the league deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday). That drove a flurry of cuts, trades and last-minute moves across the league.
  • Big contract/retention moves: Bengals and Commanders locked in key veterans — Trey Hendrickson (one-year, ~$30M) and Terry McLaurin (3 years, up to $96M) — decisions that matter for those teams' defenses and offenses, respectively.
  • Patriots continued cutting into their 2024 draft class (Layden Robinson waived/injured), highlighting roster thinness as their depth will be tested early in the season.
  • Preseason takeaways: Several rookies impressed (TreVeyon Henderson, Jaxson Dart, Frank Gore Jr.) while others struggled (Shedeur Sanders), shaping who gets final roster spots and practice-squad attention.

Rosters, waivers and what those rules mean

  • Cutdown basics: Teams must get from their preseason rosters (up to 90) to a regular-season 53 by the deadline — many players will be released or waived.
  • Waivers vs. free agency: Players with fewer than four accrued NFL seasons are "waived" (subject to the waiver wire). If another team claims them, that team assumes the player's contract. Players with four or more accrued seasons are released and become free agents able to sign immediately.
  • Claim timeline: Waiver claims must be submitted by noon ET the day after the cut deadline; if a player clears waivers, teams can sign him to their practice squad (practice squads can have up to 16 players).
  • The waiver order follows the 2025 NFL Draft order (Titans first, Browns second, Giants third, Patriots fourth, etc.), so those teams get first shot at waived youngsters.
  • Practical note: If you claim a waived player you must add him to your 53 — so claiming teams often have to cut someone else to make room.

Most newsworthy moves and why they matter

  • Patriots — Layden Robinson waived/injured: New England cut a 2024 fourth-round pick, underlining how thin the depth chart is beyond starters. Reports say Drake Maye may be the only 2024 draftee likely to stick — a big red flag for New England's recent draft returns and short-term competitiveness.
  • Cincinnati Bengals — Trey Hendrickson reworked deal: Hendrickson agreed to a one-year arrangement that raises his 2025 pay to about $30M. That keeps the team's top pass-rusher in place and is a big boost for Cincinnati's defense entering the opener.
  • Washington Commanders — Terry McLaurin extension: McLaurin's three-year, up-to-$96M deal stabilizes the Commanders' top receiving target and helps young QB Jayden Daniels retain a proven No. 1 weapon — a direct on-field boost to Washington's offense and playoff hopes.
  • Las Vegas Raiders — Jakobi Meyers requests a trade; Amari Cooper returns: Meyers wants out over contract talks, but the Raiders plan to keep him. To add depth and experience they signed Amari Cooper to a one-year deal — a veteran move that affects Las Vegas' receiver hierarchy immediately.
  • Buccaneers — Shilo Sanders waived after ejection: Sanders was ejected in the preseason for throwing a punch and was waived less than 24 hours later; the Bucs may pursue him for the practice squad if he clears waivers. This is a reminder teams weigh on-field behavior as well as talent.

Preseason winners, losers and notable performances

  • Winners:
    • TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots): Big splash in limited snaps — efficient running, three catches and a 100-yard kickoff-return TD. Could push for meaningful early-season touches.
    • Jaxson Dart (Giants): Very productive in preseason (372 yards, 3 TDs), accelerating the Giants' QB succession talk even though Russell Wilson opens as the starter.
    • Frank Gore Jr. (Bills): Only player this preseason with 100+ rushing and 100+ receiving yards — boosted his odds to stick on a practice squad or grab interest if waived.
    • Kansas City starters: Mahomes looked sharp in limited work, signaling the Chiefs' offense could be explosive when the wide receivers are healthy.
  • Losers / concerns:
    • Shedeur Sanders (Browns): After a strong debut he struggled in the finale (3 completions, 5 sacks). Cleveland plans to keep four QBs and Sanders looks like a developmental piece behind Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and Dillon Gabriel.
    • Micah Parsons / Cowboys drama: Parsons' contract standoff and public back-and-forth with ownership remain a distraction for Dallas entering the season; a Netflix doc about the Jones/Cowboys era added to the headlines.
    • Players cut who drew attention: Examples include QB Ben DiNucci (Falcons), who posted a lighthearted airport beer photo after his release — a pop-culture/social-media moment amid cuts.

Narratives to watch early in the season

  • QB rooms and backup depth: Several teams reshaped backup plans; the Vikings added Carson Wentz late and other clubs shuffled QBs, meaning Week 1 depth charts could look different than expected.
  • Patriots' depth test: New England's thin roster after cuts makes early injuries more impactful — could affect their divisional race in the AFC East if depth fails to hold up.
  • Bengals defense: Retaining Hendrickson improves pass-rush outlook; if Cincinnati's defense bites, that affects AFC playoff seeding dynamics.
  • Giants succession: Jaxson Dart's preseason surge creates storyline tension for New York: how soon will he be given a real shot to replace Russell Wilson?

Rules & clarifications fans might see in headlines

  • Fighting/punching rule: Throwing a punch in-game is explicitly penalized — a 15-yard penalty and likely ejection. That explains why Shilo Sanders' punch led to an immediate ejection and significantly hurt his roster chances.
  • Waiver basics recap: Young players (under four accrued seasons) are waived and can be claimed in order of waiver priority; older veterans become free agents immediately. If unclaimed, a player can sign to any practice squad, including returning to his original team.

Notable quotes from the last 24 hours

“In what could be the start of a stretch where the Pats dismiss almost all of their draft class from a year ago, they waived/injured 2024 fourth-round pick Layden Robinson.” — Chad Graff
“You can't throw punches in this league — that's inexcusable. They're going to get you every time. You've got to grow from that.” — Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles (about Shilo Sanders)
“Thanks everyone for the [love] and support. There's a lot to learn from this preseason, but I'm really thankful for the opportunity to be out there. Day by day, rep by rep, I'll keep learning and getting better.” — Shedeur Sanders

Why this all matters — the short version for casual fans

  • Roster cuts shape Week 1: Which young players survive cuts, which veterans are traded or re-signed, and who lands on practice squads will determine which teams have depth for injuries and playoff pushes.
  • Big-name signings affect contenders: Retaining Hendrickson and extending McLaurin immediately impacts Bengals/Commanders outlooks — those moves can swing competitive balance in the AFC and NFC.
  • Preseason performances can change futures: Breakout rookies (Henderson, Dart, Gore Jr.) could earn significant roles or fantasy value; summer struggles (Shedeur) can slow a player's upward trajectory.
  • Off-field moments trend into culture: Contract fights, Netflix documentaries, social-media reactions to cuts and lighthearted posts (airport beer) keep the league in mainstream conversation — they also influence perceptions and sometimes front-office decisions.

How to follow the final moves

  • Watch for the cut deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday) and the waiver-claim window (claims due by noon ET Wednesday).
  • Live trackers from major outlets will list claims, practice-squad additions and late trades — those updates show which young players get second chances.
  • If you play fantasy, monitor practice-squad eligible players and recent breakout preseason performers — they can be late-round adds or waiver-wire targets soon after cuts.
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