NFL Picks — Week 14

DAL @ DET
Thu, Dec 4 5:15 PM
Pick
DET
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: Detroit (home) in Week 14 vs Dallas.
  • No betting line or total available, so market context is missing.
  • Both quarterbacks listed as unknown and there are no reported major injuries for either team.
  • Rest is even (no days' edge); model win probability is 50% and overall confidence is low.
SEA @ ATL
Sun, Dec 7 10:00 AM
Pick
SEA
Conf: Med
Win Prob 65%
Spread: +6.5 O/U: 44.5
Notes
  • Pick SEA (+6.5); consensus spread +6.5, total 44.5.
  • Model projects Seattle ~65% chance to win, so getting points looks like value.
  • No listed key injuries for either side and QB statuses are unknown in the available info.
  • No rest/travel edge and weather risk not reported — monitor late injury/QB updates before locking the ticket.
TEN @ CLE
Sun, Dec 7 10:00 AM
Pick
CLE
Conf: Med
Win Prob 61%
Spread: -4.5 O/U: 33.5
Notes
  • CLE is the 4.5-point home favorite on DraftKings; pick remains CLE.
  • Model win probability ~60.6% supporting the Browns in this matchup.
  • No major injuries listed for either side; both teams' QB statuses are currently unknown — monitor pregame reports.
  • Low total (33.5) suggests a lower-scoring game; that matters if you’re betting the spread vs. the total.
  • No rest/travel edge and weather not reported, so game outcome likely hinges on QB availability and execution.
WSH @ MIN
Sun, Dec 7 10:00 AM
Pick
WAS
Conf: Low
Win Prob 53%
Spread: +1.5 O/U: 43.5
Notes
  • Pick: Washington (WAS) on the board — listed spread is ±1.5 on DraftKings.
  • Model win probability for WAS ~53.4%, so this is a narrow lean rather than a decisive edge.
  • Game total 43.5, implying an expected mid-40s combined score.
  • Key factors like both QBs, injuries, rest/travel and weather are listed as unknown/neutral, which lowers confidence.
MIA @ NYJ
Sun, Dec 7 10:00 AM
Pick
MIA
Conf: Low
Win Prob 56%
Spread: +2.5 O/U: 41.5
Notes
  • Pick: Miami (+2.5) — take the points in what projects to be a close game.
  • Pick data implies about a 56% win probability for Miami.
  • Over/Under 41.5 is relatively low, so expect a tighter, lower-scoring affair that preserves the spread value.
  • Both QBs are listed as unknown and no major injuries are reported in the provided data — monitor late QB/injury news before betting.
NO @ TB
Sun, Dec 7 10:00 AM
Pick
TB
Conf: High
Win Prob 70%
Spread: -8.5 O/U: 41.5
Notes
  • TB is an 8.5-point home favorite on DraftKings — pick is TB to cover the spread.
  • Total is 41.5, a lower-to-moderate scoring market price for this matchup.
  • Both QBs are listed as unknown and no major injuries are reported; monitor starter/injury updates.
  • Model shows ~70% win probability for TB but a low confidence rating (2), so expect some uncertainty.
IND @ JAX
Sun, Dec 7 10:00 AM
Pick
IND
Conf: Low
Win Prob 53%
Spread: +1.5 O/U: 46.5
Notes
  • Take IND: they’re listed at +1.5 on DraftKings, so Colts get 1.5 points as the away team.
  • Model projects about a 53% win probability for IND, a small but clear edge.
  • Game total is 46.5 — market expects a mid-40s scoring game, so defensive plays could matter.
  • Key items unknown: both QBs and injury statuses are listed as unknown, and there’s no rest edge — that uncertainty slightly tempers the pick.
PIT @ BAL
Sun, Dec 7 10:00 AM
Pick
BAL
Conf: Med
Win Prob 64%
Spread: -6.0 O/U: 42.5
Notes
  • Pick: Baltimore (home) — DraftKings shows BAL as a 6-point favorite.
  • Model pick probability ~64% in favor of Baltimore.
  • Game total 42.5 — moderate scoring environment; monitor QB statuses (both listed as unknown).
  • No listed major injuries and equal rest days, so no clear roster or travel edge.
  • Weather risk is unknown — check late reports before wagering.
CIN @ BUF
Sun, Dec 7 10:00 AM
Pick
BUF
Conf: Med
Win Prob 64%
Spread: -6.0 O/U: 53.5
Notes
  • Buffalo is a 6-point home favorite on DraftKings, so the market sees this as about a one-score game.
  • Over/Under is 53.5, suggesting a moderately high-scoring affair — scoring environment matters if starters play.
  • Quarterback statuses are currently unknown and there are no listed major injuries for either team; monitor starter reports before betting size.
  • No rest/travel edge; model win probability favors Buffalo (~64%), which supports the pick to take BUF.
DEN @ LV
Sun, Dec 7 1:05 PM
Pick
DEN
Conf: Med
Win Prob 68%
Spread: +7.5 O/U: 40.5
Notes
  • Pick: Denver — listed at +7.5 on DraftKings, so you get the points.
  • Model projects Denver at ~68% win probability, so the +7.5 line offers downside protection.
  • Total is 40.5 (low); expect a lower-scoring game or more variance on turnovers/field goals.
  • Both QBs currently listed as unknown and no major injuries reported — monitor starter updates.
  • No rest/travel edge and weather is unknown; check late-breaking news before lock.
CHI @ GB
Sun, Dec 7 1:25 PM
Pick
GB
Conf: Med
Win Prob 67%
Spread: -7.0 O/U: 44.5
Notes
  • Packers are 7-point favorites on DraftKings; our model gives GB about a 66% chance to win — supports taking GB.
  • Over/Under 44.5 (roughly 22–23 points per team), so market expects a mid-range scoring game.
  • Starting QB statuses are currently unknown — confirm starters before placing a bet, as a change would shift value.
  • No major injuries listed and no rest/travel edge (0 days), so the line appears driven by team matchups rather than external factors.
LAR @ ARI
Sun, Dec 7 1:25 PM
Pick
LAR
Conf: High
Win Prob 70%
Spread: +8.5 O/U: 47.5
Notes
  • Pick LAR — model puts their win probability at about 70%, and DraftKings lists an 8.5-point spread in their favor.
  • Game total is 47.5, implying moderate scoring; a Rams lead would make covering the spread easier late.
  • Both teams show unknown QB status here — a starter change would be the biggest swing factor for this bet.
  • No major injuries listed and no rest advantage, so the line appears driven by team strength rather than late roster or travel factors.
HOU @ KC
Sun, Dec 7 5:20 PM
Pick
KC
Conf: Low
Win Prob 58%
Spread: -3.5 O/U: 41.5
Notes
  • KC is a 3.5-point home favorite on DraftKings with a relatively low total of 41.5, suggesting a tighter, lower-scoring game.
  • No listed major injuries for either side and both QBs are reported as unknown, so there’s some roster/QB uncertainty.
  • Neither team has a rest advantage (0 days), so travel/rest factors are neutral.
  • Backing KC — the provided model gives Kansas City about a 58% win probability for this matchup.
PHI @ LAC
Mon, Dec 8 5:15 PM
Pick
PHI
Conf: Low
Win Prob 56%
Spread: +2.5 O/U: 41.5
Notes
  • Back PHI (+2.5) — model gives Philadelphia about a 56% win probability.
  • DraftKings total 41.5 points implies a low-scoring, close game where defenses and field goals could decide it.
  • No major injuries listed for either team; both QBs are currently listed as unknown — confirm starters before kickoff.
  • No rest edge (0 days) and weather/travel risk not reported, so treat conditions as neutral.

Today's Summaries

NFL Summary

NFL Day-in-Review — Aug 25, 2025

Quick snapshot

  • Roster cutdown day: Teams are trimming to a 53-man roster by the league deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday). That drove a flurry of cuts, trades and last-minute moves across the league.
  • Big contract/retention moves: Bengals and Commanders locked in key veterans — Trey Hendrickson (one-year, ~$30M) and Terry McLaurin (3 years, up to $96M) — decisions that matter for those teams' defenses and offenses, respectively.
  • Patriots continued cutting into their 2024 draft class (Layden Robinson waived/injured), highlighting roster thinness as their depth will be tested early in the season.
  • Preseason takeaways: Several rookies impressed (TreVeyon Henderson, Jaxson Dart, Frank Gore Jr.) while others struggled (Shedeur Sanders), shaping who gets final roster spots and practice-squad attention.

Rosters, waivers and what those rules mean

  • Cutdown basics: Teams must get from their preseason rosters (up to 90) to a regular-season 53 by the deadline — many players will be released or waived.
  • Waivers vs. free agency: Players with fewer than four accrued NFL seasons are "waived" (subject to the waiver wire). If another team claims them, that team assumes the player's contract. Players with four or more accrued seasons are released and become free agents able to sign immediately.
  • Claim timeline: Waiver claims must be submitted by noon ET the day after the cut deadline; if a player clears waivers, teams can sign him to their practice squad (practice squads can have up to 16 players).
  • The waiver order follows the 2025 NFL Draft order (Titans first, Browns second, Giants third, Patriots fourth, etc.), so those teams get first shot at waived youngsters.
  • Practical note: If you claim a waived player you must add him to your 53 — so claiming teams often have to cut someone else to make room.

Most newsworthy moves and why they matter

  • Patriots — Layden Robinson waived/injured: New England cut a 2024 fourth-round pick, underlining how thin the depth chart is beyond starters. Reports say Drake Maye may be the only 2024 draftee likely to stick — a big red flag for New England's recent draft returns and short-term competitiveness.
  • Cincinnati Bengals — Trey Hendrickson reworked deal: Hendrickson agreed to a one-year arrangement that raises his 2025 pay to about $30M. That keeps the team's top pass-rusher in place and is a big boost for Cincinnati's defense entering the opener.
  • Washington Commanders — Terry McLaurin extension: McLaurin's three-year, up-to-$96M deal stabilizes the Commanders' top receiving target and helps young QB Jayden Daniels retain a proven No. 1 weapon — a direct on-field boost to Washington's offense and playoff hopes.
  • Las Vegas Raiders — Jakobi Meyers requests a trade; Amari Cooper returns: Meyers wants out over contract talks, but the Raiders plan to keep him. To add depth and experience they signed Amari Cooper to a one-year deal — a veteran move that affects Las Vegas' receiver hierarchy immediately.
  • Buccaneers — Shilo Sanders waived after ejection: Sanders was ejected in the preseason for throwing a punch and was waived less than 24 hours later; the Bucs may pursue him for the practice squad if he clears waivers. This is a reminder teams weigh on-field behavior as well as talent.

Preseason winners, losers and notable performances

  • Winners:
    • TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots): Big splash in limited snaps — efficient running, three catches and a 100-yard kickoff-return TD. Could push for meaningful early-season touches.
    • Jaxson Dart (Giants): Very productive in preseason (372 yards, 3 TDs), accelerating the Giants' QB succession talk even though Russell Wilson opens as the starter.
    • Frank Gore Jr. (Bills): Only player this preseason with 100+ rushing and 100+ receiving yards — boosted his odds to stick on a practice squad or grab interest if waived.
    • Kansas City starters: Mahomes looked sharp in limited work, signaling the Chiefs' offense could be explosive when the wide receivers are healthy.
  • Losers / concerns:
    • Shedeur Sanders (Browns): After a strong debut he struggled in the finale (3 completions, 5 sacks). Cleveland plans to keep four QBs and Sanders looks like a developmental piece behind Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and Dillon Gabriel.
    • Micah Parsons / Cowboys drama: Parsons' contract standoff and public back-and-forth with ownership remain a distraction for Dallas entering the season; a Netflix doc about the Jones/Cowboys era added to the headlines.
    • Players cut who drew attention: Examples include QB Ben DiNucci (Falcons), who posted a lighthearted airport beer photo after his release — a pop-culture/social-media moment amid cuts.

Narratives to watch early in the season

  • QB rooms and backup depth: Several teams reshaped backup plans; the Vikings added Carson Wentz late and other clubs shuffled QBs, meaning Week 1 depth charts could look different than expected.
  • Patriots' depth test: New England's thin roster after cuts makes early injuries more impactful — could affect their divisional race in the AFC East if depth fails to hold up.
  • Bengals defense: Retaining Hendrickson improves pass-rush outlook; if Cincinnati's defense bites, that affects AFC playoff seeding dynamics.
  • Giants succession: Jaxson Dart's preseason surge creates storyline tension for New York: how soon will he be given a real shot to replace Russell Wilson?

Rules & clarifications fans might see in headlines

  • Fighting/punching rule: Throwing a punch in-game is explicitly penalized — a 15-yard penalty and likely ejection. That explains why Shilo Sanders' punch led to an immediate ejection and significantly hurt his roster chances.
  • Waiver basics recap: Young players (under four accrued seasons) are waived and can be claimed in order of waiver priority; older veterans become free agents immediately. If unclaimed, a player can sign to any practice squad, including returning to his original team.

Notable quotes from the last 24 hours

“In what could be the start of a stretch where the Pats dismiss almost all of their draft class from a year ago, they waived/injured 2024 fourth-round pick Layden Robinson.” — Chad Graff
“You can't throw punches in this league — that's inexcusable. They're going to get you every time. You've got to grow from that.” — Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles (about Shilo Sanders)
“Thanks everyone for the [love] and support. There's a lot to learn from this preseason, but I'm really thankful for the opportunity to be out there. Day by day, rep by rep, I'll keep learning and getting better.” — Shedeur Sanders

Why this all matters — the short version for casual fans

  • Roster cuts shape Week 1: Which young players survive cuts, which veterans are traded or re-signed, and who lands on practice squads will determine which teams have depth for injuries and playoff pushes.
  • Big-name signings affect contenders: Retaining Hendrickson and extending McLaurin immediately impacts Bengals/Commanders outlooks — those moves can swing competitive balance in the AFC and NFC.
  • Preseason performances can change futures: Breakout rookies (Henderson, Dart, Gore Jr.) could earn significant roles or fantasy value; summer struggles (Shedeur) can slow a player's upward trajectory.
  • Off-field moments trend into culture: Contract fights, Netflix documentaries, social-media reactions to cuts and lighthearted posts (airport beer) keep the league in mainstream conversation — they also influence perceptions and sometimes front-office decisions.

How to follow the final moves

  • Watch for the cut deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday) and the waiver-claim window (claims due by noon ET Wednesday).
  • Live trackers from major outlets will list claims, practice-squad additions and late trades — those updates show which young players get second chances.
  • If you play fantasy, monitor practice-squad eligible players and recent breakout preseason performers — they can be late-round adds or waiver-wire targets soon after cuts.
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