NFL Picks — Week 1
DAL @ PHI
Thu, Sep 4 5:20 PMPick
PHI
Win Prob
70%
Spread: -6.5
O/U: 46.5
Notes
- Pick: PHI — ESPN BET lists Philadelphia as an 8.5-point home favorite, so a cover requires a 9+ point win.
- Model win probability for PHI ~70% (0.702), indicating a strong straight-up lean but not guaranteed to cover the large spread.
- Provided injury lists show no major injuries for either side; both QBs currently listed as unknown — monitor final scratches or QB confirmations.
- Week 1 with no rest/travel edge; total 47.5 is moderate, so game script or late injury/weather news could swing both the total and the cover outcome.
KC @ LAC
Fri, Sep 5 5:00 PMPick
KC
Win Prob
58%
Spread: +3.5
O/U: 45.5
Notes
- Pick: KC — model gives the Chiefs about a 58% win probability for this Week 1 matchup (Season 2025).
- Line: 3.5-point spread (ESPN BET) and 46.5 O/U — close, one-score game expected so the spread is significant.
- QB status is listed as unknown and there are no reported major injuries in the provided info — monitor late-week updates.
- No rest/travel or weather edge shown in the data, so this pick leans on the model projection rather than situational factors.
TB @ ATL
Sun, Sep 7 10:00 AMPick
TB
Win Prob
56%
Spread: +2.5
O/U: 47.5
Notes
- Pick: Tampa Bay (TB) at +2.5 — small underdog on the spread.
- Model win probability: ~56% for TB (pick favors them to win or cover).
- Both teams' QB statuses are listed as unknown and there are no major injuries reported.
- Total 47.5 suggests a moderate scoring game; rest/travel neutral (0 days edge) and weather is unknown.
CIN @ CLE
Sun, Sep 7 10:00 AMPick
CIN
Win Prob
63%
Spread: +5.5
O/U: 46.5
Notes
- Pick: Cincinnati — model gives CIN about a 63% chance to win.
- Betting line: 5.5-point spread and 47.5 over/under (ESPN BET), so a close game on the board.
- Both teams' QB statuses are listed as unknown for Week 1, creating some uncertainty.
- No major injuries reported, no rest/travel edge, and weather risk not listed.
MIA @ IND
Sun, Sep 7 10:00 AMPick
IND
Win Prob
53%
Spread: -1.5
O/U: 47.5
Notes
- Pick: IND (home favorite by 1.5 on ESPN BET) — a one-score game on the spread.
- Total is 46.5, indicating a moderate expected scoring pace.
- Both QBs listed as unknown and no major injuries reported for either side in the provided info.
- Rest/travel shows no edge (0 days); weather risk is unknown, so no clear external factor.
- Model-implied win probability for IND ≈ 53.4%, reflecting a slight edge but close contest.
LV @ NE
Sun, Sep 7 10:00 AMPick
NE
Win Prob
56%
Spread: -2.5
O/U: 42.5
Notes
- Pick: New England (home) — listed at -2.5 (close spread).
- Projection gives NE about a 56% win probability.
- Both teams' QB status is listed as unknown; starter news could change the outlook.
- No major injuries reported and no rest advantage (0 days edge).
- Game total 43.5 — moderate scoring expected; check weather and injury updates before betting.
ARI @ NO
Sun, Sep 7 10:00 AMPick
ARI
Win Prob
65%
Spread: +5.5
O/U: 42.5
Notes
- Pick: Arizona (+6.5). The model shows ARI with about a 65% win probability, so the spread looks like value.
- Total 43.5 implies a moderate-scoring game; +6.5 buys you a cushion without needing a high-scoring shootout.
- Week 1 — both QBs listed as unknown in the provided data, so monitor starter confirmations before locking the bet.
- No major injuries, rest edge, or weather concerns listed here; treat those as neutral factors unless late news emerges.
PIT @ NYJ
Sun, Sep 7 10:00 AMPick
PIT
Win Prob
56%
Spread: +2.5
O/U: 38.5
Notes
- Pick: PIT — take the Steelers as a 2.5-point road underdog.
- ESPN BET total 38.5, a low line that points to a likely lower-scoring, defense-leaning game.
- Week 1 — both QBs listed as unknown; monitor starter/injury reports late in the week.
- No major injuries listed for either side and no rest advantage; current model gives PIT about a 56% win probability.
NYG @ WSH
Sun, Sep 7 10:00 AMPick
WAS
Win Prob
65%
Spread: -6.5
O/U: 45.5
Notes
- Pick: Washington (WAS). ESPN BET shows WAS -6.5; model win probability ~65.4%.
- Week 1 kickoff — both teams' QB statuses are listed as unknown and there are no reported major injuries.
- WAS needs to win by 7+ to cover the 6.5-point spread; game total is 45.5.
- No rest or travel edge noted; weather risk is unknown—monitor pregame injury/QB and weather updates.
CAR @ JAX
Sun, Sep 7 10:00 AMPick
JAX
Win Prob
58%
Spread: -3.5
O/U: 46.5
Notes
- JAX is a 3.5-point home favorite on ESPN BET; pick: JAX.
- Implied win probability ~58% — market aligns with backing the home team.
- No listed key injuries for either side and both QBs currently listed as unknown; monitor pregame confirmations.
- Over/Under 46.5 indicates a moderate scoring expectation; rest edge is neutral (0 days) and weather is not reported.
TEN @ DEN
Sun, Sep 7 1:05 PMPick
DEN
Win Prob
70%
Spread: -8.5
O/U: 41.5
Notes
- Denver is the home team and the betting line has DEN -8.5 with an over/under of 42.5 (ESPN BET).
- Quarterback statuses and major injuries are listed as unknown in the provided game data, so key player availability is uncertain.
- No rest/travel edge (0 extra days) and weather risk is unknown, so situational factors are neutral or unclear.
- Model pick favors DEN (~70% win probability) with a low confidence rating (2); pick: DEN.
SF @ SEA
Sun, Sep 7 1:05 PMPick
SF
Win Prob
56%
Spread: +2.5
O/U: 44.5
Notes
- SF is on the board at +2.5 (ESPN BET), giving them a 2.5-point cushion.
- The pick's model assigns SF roughly a 56% win probability, supporting the selection.
- It's Week 1: both QBs are currently listed as unknown and no major injuries are reported — confirm starters before game time.
- Total is 43.5, a modest scoring line; with an expected close game the 2.5 spread is meaningful — check weather closer to kickoff.
DET @ GB
Sun, Sep 7 1:25 PMPick
GB
Win Prob
56%
Spread: -1.5
O/U: 49.5
Notes
- Pick: GB — Green Bay is a 2.5-point favorite; total set at 47.5 (ESPN BET).
- Model win probability ≈55.7% for GB (pick data).
- Both teams' QB statuses are listed as unknown and no major injuries are reported in the provided info.
- No rest edge (0 days); weather and travel details are currently unknown, so no clear situational advantage.
HOU @ LAR
Sun, Sep 7 1:25 PMPick
LAR
Win Prob
58%
Spread: -2.5
O/U: 44.5
Notes
- LAR is a 3.5-point home favorite on ESPN BET; pick is LAR.
- Pick implies roughly a 58% chance to win based on provided win-probability.
- Over/Under 43.5 points indicates a moderate scoring expectation for the game.
- No major injuries listed and both QBs' statuses are currently unknown; Week 1 gives no rest/travel edge and weather risk is not yet reported.
BAL @ BUF
Sun, Sep 7 5:20 PMPick
BUF
Win Prob
53%
Spread: -1.5
O/U: 51.5
Notes
- Pick: Buffalo (home) — ESPN BET shows BUF favored by 1.5; game total 50.5.
- Both teams' QB statuses are listed as unknown at the time of this write-up.
- No major injuries reported for either side in the provided information.
- Even rest/travel; model gives Buffalo about a 53% win probability, a slim edge.
MIN @ CHI
Mon, Sep 8 5:15 PMPick
MIN
Win Prob
53%
Spread: +1.5
O/U: 43.5
Notes
- Pick: MIN — model gives a small edge (≈53% win probability) into a tight 1.5-point spread and 43.5 total.
- Both teams list starting-QB status as unknown and no major injuries noted; any late QB news could swing value.
- Week 1 game with no rest/travel edge, so early-season form and health will be key.
- The 43.5 total is modest; expect a close, potentially lower-scoring game where a single possession could decide it.
Today's Summaries
NFL Summary
Quick snapshot
- Roster cutdown day: Teams are trimming to a 53-man roster by the league deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday). That drove a flurry of cuts, trades and last-minute moves across the league.
- Big contract/retention moves: Bengals and Commanders locked in key veterans — Trey Hendrickson (one-year, ~$30M) and Terry McLaurin (3 years, up to $96M) — decisions that matter for those teams' defenses and offenses, respectively.
- Patriots continued cutting into their 2024 draft class (Layden Robinson waived/injured), highlighting roster thinness as their depth will be tested early in the season.
- Preseason takeaways: Several rookies impressed (TreVeyon Henderson, Jaxson Dart, Frank Gore Jr.) while others struggled (Shedeur Sanders), shaping who gets final roster spots and practice-squad attention.
Rosters, waivers and what those rules mean
- Cutdown basics: Teams must get from their preseason rosters (up to 90) to a regular-season 53 by the deadline — many players will be released or waived.
- Waivers vs. free agency: Players with fewer than four accrued NFL seasons are "waived" (subject to the waiver wire). If another team claims them, that team assumes the player's contract. Players with four or more accrued seasons are released and become free agents able to sign immediately.
- Claim timeline: Waiver claims must be submitted by noon ET the day after the cut deadline; if a player clears waivers, teams can sign him to their practice squad (practice squads can have up to 16 players).
The waiver order follows the 2025 NFL Draft order (Titans first, Browns second, Giants third, Patriots fourth, etc.), so those teams get first shot at waived youngsters.
- Practical note: If you claim a waived player you must add him to your 53 — so claiming teams often have to cut someone else to make room.
Most newsworthy moves and why they matter
- Patriots — Layden Robinson waived/injured: New England cut a 2024 fourth-round pick, underlining how thin the depth chart is beyond starters. Reports say Drake Maye may be the only 2024 draftee likely to stick — a big red flag for New England's recent draft returns and short-term competitiveness.
- Cincinnati Bengals — Trey Hendrickson reworked deal: Hendrickson agreed to a one-year arrangement that raises his 2025 pay to about $30M. That keeps the team's top pass-rusher in place and is a big boost for Cincinnati's defense entering the opener.
- Washington Commanders — Terry McLaurin extension: McLaurin's three-year, up-to-$96M deal stabilizes the Commanders' top receiving target and helps young QB Jayden Daniels retain a proven No. 1 weapon — a direct on-field boost to Washington's offense and playoff hopes.
- Las Vegas Raiders — Jakobi Meyers requests a trade; Amari Cooper returns: Meyers wants out over contract talks, but the Raiders plan to keep him. To add depth and experience they signed Amari Cooper to a one-year deal — a veteran move that affects Las Vegas' receiver hierarchy immediately.
- Buccaneers — Shilo Sanders waived after ejection: Sanders was ejected in the preseason for throwing a punch and was waived less than 24 hours later; the Bucs may pursue him for the practice squad if he clears waivers. This is a reminder teams weigh on-field behavior as well as talent.
Preseason winners, losers and notable performances
- Winners:
- TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots): Big splash in limited snaps — efficient running, three catches and a 100-yard kickoff-return TD. Could push for meaningful early-season touches.
- Jaxson Dart (Giants): Very productive in preseason (372 yards, 3 TDs), accelerating the Giants' QB succession talk even though Russell Wilson opens as the starter.
- Frank Gore Jr. (Bills): Only player this preseason with 100+ rushing and 100+ receiving yards — boosted his odds to stick on a practice squad or grab interest if waived.
- Kansas City starters: Mahomes looked sharp in limited work, signaling the Chiefs' offense could be explosive when the wide receivers are healthy.
- Losers / concerns:
- Shedeur Sanders (Browns): After a strong debut he struggled in the finale (3 completions, 5 sacks). Cleveland plans to keep four QBs and Sanders looks like a developmental piece behind Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and Dillon Gabriel.
- Micah Parsons / Cowboys drama: Parsons' contract standoff and public back-and-forth with ownership remain a distraction for Dallas entering the season; a Netflix doc about the Jones/Cowboys era added to the headlines.
- Players cut who drew attention: Examples include QB Ben DiNucci (Falcons), who posted a lighthearted airport beer photo after his release — a pop-culture/social-media moment amid cuts.
Narratives to watch early in the season
- QB rooms and backup depth: Several teams reshaped backup plans; the Vikings added Carson Wentz late and other clubs shuffled QBs, meaning Week 1 depth charts could look different than expected.
- Patriots' depth test: New England's thin roster after cuts makes early injuries more impactful — could affect their divisional race in the AFC East if depth fails to hold up.
- Bengals defense: Retaining Hendrickson improves pass-rush outlook; if Cincinnati's defense bites, that affects AFC playoff seeding dynamics.
- Giants succession: Jaxson Dart's preseason surge creates storyline tension for New York: how soon will he be given a real shot to replace Russell Wilson?
Rules & clarifications fans might see in headlines
- Fighting/punching rule: Throwing a punch in-game is explicitly penalized — a 15-yard penalty and likely ejection. That explains why Shilo Sanders' punch led to an immediate ejection and significantly hurt his roster chances.
- Waiver basics recap: Young players (under four accrued seasons) are waived and can be claimed in order of waiver priority; older veterans become free agents immediately. If unclaimed, a player can sign to any practice squad, including returning to his original team.
Notable quotes from the last 24 hours
“In what could be the start of a stretch where the Pats dismiss almost all of their draft class from a year ago, they waived/injured 2024 fourth-round pick Layden Robinson.” — Chad Graff
“You can't throw punches in this league — that's inexcusable. They're going to get you every time. You've got to grow from that.” — Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles (about Shilo Sanders)
“Thanks everyone for the [love] and support. There's a lot to learn from this preseason, but I'm really thankful for the opportunity to be out there. Day by day, rep by rep, I'll keep learning and getting better.” — Shedeur Sanders
Why this all matters — the short version for casual fans
- Roster cuts shape Week 1: Which young players survive cuts, which veterans are traded or re-signed, and who lands on practice squads will determine which teams have depth for injuries and playoff pushes.
- Big-name signings affect contenders: Retaining Hendrickson and extending McLaurin immediately impacts Bengals/Commanders outlooks — those moves can swing competitive balance in the AFC and NFC.
- Preseason performances can change futures: Breakout rookies (Henderson, Dart, Gore Jr.) could earn significant roles or fantasy value; summer struggles (Shedeur) can slow a player's upward trajectory.
- Off-field moments trend into culture: Contract fights, Netflix documentaries, social-media reactions to cuts and lighthearted posts (airport beer) keep the league in mainstream conversation — they also influence perceptions and sometimes front-office decisions.
How to follow the final moves
- Watch for the cut deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday) and the waiver-claim window (claims due by noon ET Wednesday).
- Live trackers from major outlets will list claims, practice-squad additions and late trades — those updates show which young players get second chances.
- If you play fantasy, monitor practice-squad eligible players and recent breakout preseason performers — they can be late-round adds or waiver-wire targets soon after cuts.