NFL Picks — Week 17

DAL @ WSH
Thu, Dec 25 10:00 AM
Pick
WAS
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Week 17, Washington (home) vs. Dallas — pick: WAS.
  • Quarterback status for both teams is listed as unknown; starter news could change the outlook.
  • No key injuries reported for either side and rest edge is even (0 days).
  • No spread, total or weather info available; model shows 50% win probability and zero confidence, so treat the pick cautiously.
DET @ MIN
Thu, Dec 25 1:30 PM
Pick
MIN
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: Minnesota (home) in this Week 17 matchup vs Detroit.
  • Quarterback statuses are unknown for both teams, which leaves key matchup info unresolved.
  • No major injuries listed for either side and no betting line/total available to inform spread or over/under decisions.
  • Rest/travel and weather are also unknown; the projection is essentially a 50/50 call with very low confidence.
DEN @ KC
Thu, Dec 25 5:15 PM
Pick
KC
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Week 17 at Arrowhead: Chiefs (home) vs. Broncos (away) — pick: KC.
  • No betting line or total available, so no spread/total edge to evaluate.
  • Both QBs listed as unknown and no key injuries reported; monitor pregame injury/QB updates.
  • Rest edge is 0 days and weather/travel notes are unknown — late-season factors could change outlook.
HOU @ LAC
Sat, Dec 27 1:30 PM
Pick
LAC
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: LAC (home team, Week 17).
  • No spread, total, or moneyline available — line should be checked closer to kickoff.
  • Both teams' quarterback statuses are listed as unknown; monitor pregame updates.
  • No major injuries reported for either side in the provided data.
  • Neutral rest edge (0 days) and weather/travel details are unknown — expect standard preparation.
BAL @ GB
Sat, Dec 27 5:00 PM
Pick
GB
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: Green Bay (home team).
  • No betting line or totals available, so spread/over‑under aren’t in the decision.
  • Quarterback statuses are listed as unknown and no major injuries are reported for either side.
  • Week 17 game with no rest-edge (0 days); travel and weather risks are unspecified; model win probability ~50% with zero confidence.
ARI @ CIN
Sun, Dec 28 10:00 AM
Pick
CIN
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: CIN — Cincinnati is the home team for this Week 17 matchup.
  • No betting line available (spread/total/moneyline not provided), so this pick isn’t market-driven.
  • Provided data lists no major injuries for either team; both QBs are listed as unknown.
  • Rest shows no edge (same days); weather and travel not flagged. Pick win probability 50% with confidence 0 in the supplied info.
SEA @ CAR
Sun, Dec 28 10:00 AM
Pick
CAR
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: CAR (home team, Week 17).
  • No betting line, spread, or total available for this matchup.
  • Starting QB status for both teams listed as unknown; monitor pregame updates.
  • No major injuries reported; rest is even (0‑day edge) and weather risk not recorded.
PIT @ CLE
Sun, Dec 28 10:00 AM
Pick
CLE
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: CLE (Week 17) — projection gives a 50% win probability and confidence is currently low.
  • No spread, total, or moneyline available yet; monitor odds for moves before placing bets.
  • Both teams list QB status as unknown and there are no key injuries reported in the available data.
  • CLE is the home team and there’s no rest advantage or weather/travel info listed, so the pick defaults to the home side given an even projection.
NO @ TEN
Sun, Dec 28 10:00 AM
Pick
TEN
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: Tennessee (TEN).
  • No spread/total provided — wait for posted lines and shop markets.
  • Starting QB statuses are listed as unknown; confirm starters before wagering.
  • No key injuries in the supplied data and rest is even (0-day edge); check the local weather forecast pregame.
JAX @ IND
Sun, Dec 28 10:00 AM
Pick
IND
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: IND — win probability listed at 50%.
  • Home and away QB statuses are unknown; no major injuries listed for either team.
  • No betting line, spread or total available, so the market view is not set.
  • Teams have equal rest (0‑day edge); travel and weather information are unknown and could sway the game.
TB @ MIA
Sun, Dec 28 10:00 AM
Pick
MIA
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: Miami (MIA).
  • No betting line or total available, so market context is unknown.
  • QB statuses are listed as unknown and there are no reported major injuries for either side.
  • Rest edge is even (0 days); travel and weather are unknown; model shows a 50% win probability with low confidence.
NE @ NYJ
Sun, Dec 28 10:00 AM
Pick
NYJ
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: NYJ (home team in Week 17).
  • QB statuses and major injuries are listed as unknown/no entries in the provided data.
  • No betting line (spread/total/moneyline) is available in the supplied information.
  • Rest edge is even (0 days); weather and travel details are unknown—check closer to kickoff.
NYG @ LV
Sun, Dec 28 1:05 PM
Pick
LV
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: Las Vegas (LV) in this Week 17 matchup.
  • No betting market posted (no spread, total, or moneyline), which limits value assessment.
  • Both teams' QB statuses and major injuries are listed as unknown, so lineup clarity is low.
  • Rest is even (0-day edge); travel and weather risks are not reported.
  • Listed win probability 50% with confidence 0 — pick should be considered tentative pending more info.
PHI @ BUF
Sun, Dec 28 1:25 PM
Pick
BUF
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Pick: BUF — backing Buffalo in this Week 17 matchup.
  • On paper this is even (win probability ~50%) and confidence is low; both QBs are listed as unknown.
  • No major injuries reported for either team in the supplied game notes.
  • No spread/total or weather info available and no rest/travel edge; wait for odds and late injury reports before sizing a bet.
CHI @ SF
Sun, Dec 28 5:20 PM
Pick
SF
Conf: Low
Win Prob 50%
Spread: — O/U: —
Notes
  • Picking SF (home) despite no public betting line — spread/total not available to guide a wager.
  • Both teams' QB statuses are listed as unknown; check starters before betting or live betting.
  • No major injuries reported for either side in the provided game info.
  • Rest/travel is neutral (0-day edge) and weather risk is unknown, so those factors are effectively even.
  • Model-level win probability is 50/50; choice of SF leans on home-field as the marginal factor.
LAR @ ATL
Mon, Dec 29 5:15 PM
Pick
LAR
Conf: Med
Win Prob 67%
Spread: +7.0 O/U: 49.5
Notes
  • Pick LAR (+7 on DraftKings); model gives about a 66% win probability for the Rams.
  • Spread 7, total 49.5 — market expects a moderate-scoring game.
  • Both QBs listed as unknown; monitor starter news before lock.
  • No major injuries reported and neither team has a rest advantage.

Today's Summaries

NFL Summary

NFL Day-in-Review — Aug 25, 2025

Quick snapshot

  • Roster cutdown day: Teams are trimming to a 53-man roster by the league deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday). That drove a flurry of cuts, trades and last-minute moves across the league.
  • Big contract/retention moves: Bengals and Commanders locked in key veterans — Trey Hendrickson (one-year, ~$30M) and Terry McLaurin (3 years, up to $96M) — decisions that matter for those teams' defenses and offenses, respectively.
  • Patriots continued cutting into their 2024 draft class (Layden Robinson waived/injured), highlighting roster thinness as their depth will be tested early in the season.
  • Preseason takeaways: Several rookies impressed (TreVeyon Henderson, Jaxson Dart, Frank Gore Jr.) while others struggled (Shedeur Sanders), shaping who gets final roster spots and practice-squad attention.

Rosters, waivers and what those rules mean

  • Cutdown basics: Teams must get from their preseason rosters (up to 90) to a regular-season 53 by the deadline — many players will be released or waived.
  • Waivers vs. free agency: Players with fewer than four accrued NFL seasons are "waived" (subject to the waiver wire). If another team claims them, that team assumes the player's contract. Players with four or more accrued seasons are released and become free agents able to sign immediately.
  • Claim timeline: Waiver claims must be submitted by noon ET the day after the cut deadline; if a player clears waivers, teams can sign him to their practice squad (practice squads can have up to 16 players).
  • The waiver order follows the 2025 NFL Draft order (Titans first, Browns second, Giants third, Patriots fourth, etc.), so those teams get first shot at waived youngsters.
  • Practical note: If you claim a waived player you must add him to your 53 — so claiming teams often have to cut someone else to make room.

Most newsworthy moves and why they matter

  • Patriots — Layden Robinson waived/injured: New England cut a 2024 fourth-round pick, underlining how thin the depth chart is beyond starters. Reports say Drake Maye may be the only 2024 draftee likely to stick — a big red flag for New England's recent draft returns and short-term competitiveness.
  • Cincinnati Bengals — Trey Hendrickson reworked deal: Hendrickson agreed to a one-year arrangement that raises his 2025 pay to about $30M. That keeps the team's top pass-rusher in place and is a big boost for Cincinnati's defense entering the opener.
  • Washington Commanders — Terry McLaurin extension: McLaurin's three-year, up-to-$96M deal stabilizes the Commanders' top receiving target and helps young QB Jayden Daniels retain a proven No. 1 weapon — a direct on-field boost to Washington's offense and playoff hopes.
  • Las Vegas Raiders — Jakobi Meyers requests a trade; Amari Cooper returns: Meyers wants out over contract talks, but the Raiders plan to keep him. To add depth and experience they signed Amari Cooper to a one-year deal — a veteran move that affects Las Vegas' receiver hierarchy immediately.
  • Buccaneers — Shilo Sanders waived after ejection: Sanders was ejected in the preseason for throwing a punch and was waived less than 24 hours later; the Bucs may pursue him for the practice squad if he clears waivers. This is a reminder teams weigh on-field behavior as well as talent.

Preseason winners, losers and notable performances

  • Winners:
    • TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots): Big splash in limited snaps — efficient running, three catches and a 100-yard kickoff-return TD. Could push for meaningful early-season touches.
    • Jaxson Dart (Giants): Very productive in preseason (372 yards, 3 TDs), accelerating the Giants' QB succession talk even though Russell Wilson opens as the starter.
    • Frank Gore Jr. (Bills): Only player this preseason with 100+ rushing and 100+ receiving yards — boosted his odds to stick on a practice squad or grab interest if waived.
    • Kansas City starters: Mahomes looked sharp in limited work, signaling the Chiefs' offense could be explosive when the wide receivers are healthy.
  • Losers / concerns:
    • Shedeur Sanders (Browns): After a strong debut he struggled in the finale (3 completions, 5 sacks). Cleveland plans to keep four QBs and Sanders looks like a developmental piece behind Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and Dillon Gabriel.
    • Micah Parsons / Cowboys drama: Parsons' contract standoff and public back-and-forth with ownership remain a distraction for Dallas entering the season; a Netflix doc about the Jones/Cowboys era added to the headlines.
    • Players cut who drew attention: Examples include QB Ben DiNucci (Falcons), who posted a lighthearted airport beer photo after his release — a pop-culture/social-media moment amid cuts.

Narratives to watch early in the season

  • QB rooms and backup depth: Several teams reshaped backup plans; the Vikings added Carson Wentz late and other clubs shuffled QBs, meaning Week 1 depth charts could look different than expected.
  • Patriots' depth test: New England's thin roster after cuts makes early injuries more impactful — could affect their divisional race in the AFC East if depth fails to hold up.
  • Bengals defense: Retaining Hendrickson improves pass-rush outlook; if Cincinnati's defense bites, that affects AFC playoff seeding dynamics.
  • Giants succession: Jaxson Dart's preseason surge creates storyline tension for New York: how soon will he be given a real shot to replace Russell Wilson?

Rules & clarifications fans might see in headlines

  • Fighting/punching rule: Throwing a punch in-game is explicitly penalized — a 15-yard penalty and likely ejection. That explains why Shilo Sanders' punch led to an immediate ejection and significantly hurt his roster chances.
  • Waiver basics recap: Young players (under four accrued seasons) are waived and can be claimed in order of waiver priority; older veterans become free agents immediately. If unclaimed, a player can sign to any practice squad, including returning to his original team.

Notable quotes from the last 24 hours

“In what could be the start of a stretch where the Pats dismiss almost all of their draft class from a year ago, they waived/injured 2024 fourth-round pick Layden Robinson.” — Chad Graff
“You can't throw punches in this league — that's inexcusable. They're going to get you every time. You've got to grow from that.” — Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles (about Shilo Sanders)
“Thanks everyone for the [love] and support. There's a lot to learn from this preseason, but I'm really thankful for the opportunity to be out there. Day by day, rep by rep, I'll keep learning and getting better.” — Shedeur Sanders

Why this all matters — the short version for casual fans

  • Roster cuts shape Week 1: Which young players survive cuts, which veterans are traded or re-signed, and who lands on practice squads will determine which teams have depth for injuries and playoff pushes.
  • Big-name signings affect contenders: Retaining Hendrickson and extending McLaurin immediately impacts Bengals/Commanders outlooks — those moves can swing competitive balance in the AFC and NFC.
  • Preseason performances can change futures: Breakout rookies (Henderson, Dart, Gore Jr.) could earn significant roles or fantasy value; summer struggles (Shedeur) can slow a player's upward trajectory.
  • Off-field moments trend into culture: Contract fights, Netflix documentaries, social-media reactions to cuts and lighthearted posts (airport beer) keep the league in mainstream conversation — they also influence perceptions and sometimes front-office decisions.

How to follow the final moves

  • Watch for the cut deadline (4 p.m. ET Tuesday) and the waiver-claim window (claims due by noon ET Wednesday).
  • Live trackers from major outlets will list claims, practice-squad additions and late trades — those updates show which young players get second chances.
  • If you play fantasy, monitor practice-squad eligible players and recent breakout preseason performers — they can be late-round adds or waiver-wire targets soon after cuts.
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